ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Gets advisory snows after the flip down to about Kevin....eastern coastline might get OES enhancement late in the game Friday afternoon/evening....like -8C temps at 925mb coming out of the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 That's a cave to the GFS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yeah we take that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS - King of the mid range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: That's a cave to the GFS. Pretty large step there… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Man.. the Euro really does suck now. Went from a snowstorm in SNE Saturday runs to dews and temps in 50’s at 12z run Sunday and is now heading back to its initial idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 That was definitely on the larger side of moves you would typically see from the Euro at this range. But this is a pretty delicate setup...small difference early on will have larger differences later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Still time for the gfs to "cave" the other way. Looks like the Euro went 1/3 to 1/2 of the difference there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Pretty large step there… I wanted to put 0z,06z and 12z in there but pivotal won't allow to do all three, It would have looked more in increments instead of the gap from 0z to 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Still time for the gfs to "cave" the other way. Looks like the Euro went 1/3 to 1/2 of the difference there. was just going to say this, but what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Still time for the gfs to "cave" the other way. Looks like the Euro went 1/3 to 1/2 of the difference there. Its already caving if you want to call it that, I think its had the right idea about the cold but just to far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Tick tick oh heck-cave. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 People get too stuck on one model having to cave to another, when usually they are all moving around in different ways trying to find a solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ah, Got it now Last 3 runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: People get too stuck on one model having to cave to another, when usually they are all moving around in different ways trying to find a solution. That's a nice way of saying the Euro has sucked 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Ah, Got it now Last 3 runs huge cave KING GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: That's a nice way of saying the Euro has sucked So has the GFS. They literally all suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 What if GFS goes north? Who is King? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Need another 50 mile tick for my area, but that's probably asking too much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 While the cooler trend continues I think from Kevin north to maybe the pike sees more ice/sleet than snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: What if GFS goes north? Who is King? my toaster 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 And know the GFS coming back towards the euro last 3 runs, In the end its going to be in the middle ground give or take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What if GFS goes north? Who is King? JMA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Still time for the gfs to "cave" the other way. Looks like the Euro went 1/3 to 1/2 of the difference there. Figure a middle ground blend. RUT to LCI looks good for max stripe. Clown maps might oversell the gradient line. Need to watch any mid level sneaky layers. 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What if GFS goes north? Who is King? The Navy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: What if GFS goes north? Who is King? I don't see it going as far north as the Euro has caved south..but I guess it's possible. I was being hyperbolic, but it's plainly obvious over the past month it has been more right than wrong with the general idea in the mid-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What if GFS goes north? Who is King? Beer 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Great to see the Euro jump south. For a higher end event like the GFS I noticed that the GFS winds up with a stronger band of convergence/warm advection at 850mb that lingers for quite some time. Just north of that you get quite a snow dump. The Euro is far more transient with that best zone of lift so you wind up with less forcing and more subdued precip totals. I imagine a combo of a stronger southern stream and a bit more confluence to the north could get it done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 going to be real close here if the GFS and Euro meet in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: And know the GFS coming back towards the euro last 3 runs, In the end its going to be in the middle ground give or take. OK..I'll give you that. We'll see what happens next. If the GFS and Euro tick colder again, it will be a win for the GFS...until the next model cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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