PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yeah, GFS is very lonely right now. Sounds like we are tossing every other model tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Oh no, f' the navgem. I meant your heresy against THE KING. The King needs to get his crown polished! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, UnitedWx said: The King needs to get his crown polished! The KING says rain to maine btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: The KING says rain to maine btw. It does. Is it right...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think he was looking at the 00z run...you aren't below freezing until after 12z Fri on the 12z run. It's not 50s and rain though either for you. You know I hate when ppl screw up interpretations of model runs and I gotta apologize and kick myself . I was on pivotal and switched to 12z saw it out to 120 hours and hit 2m temps , have no idea how 0z populated (I was on it mins before ) . Just kick me at least Nashua is at 24f at that time and it looks like pike north is 32 and below 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Afd was before 12Z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think he was looking at the 00z run...you aren't below freezing until after 12z Fri on the 12z run. It's not 50s and rain though either for you. Either way.. Euro will be north. Thought colder trends won.. but they losing . Back to big worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Gfs all alone on the Arctic press which means it's most likely wrong. We generally want the Arctic high to be in place ahead of the system not as it's approaching. CMC likely to be correct imo. NNE will do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Either way.. Euro will be north. Thought colder trends won.. but they losing . Back to big worry I did have 0z temps up somehow but first I saw the 12z snow maps which still gave 6” to pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The KING says rain to maine btw. kev will like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Going by past experience and based on today’s trends, this will likely be no more than a nuisance event S of the MA/NH border. Icing may be a concern for the typical interior spots of SNE though. NBD for most. SNE turns its attention to 2/7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'm surprised this system is bullied along so robustly in these guidance to begin with .. It's a flat wave - yeah we know .. But, it's also being pulled up through a larger synoptic confluence at mid/U/A levels. The OV is the 'rejoining' axis of the southern stream with the northern stream. Yet this just has enough identity left after the fact ... (GFS and company) to get interesting after the fact. I've been on the fence with that. 1 .. models tend to see the mid range through a magnifying glass. Scoping out middling events as majors, minors and middling ...etc, has been a leitmotif of the global numerical models - particularly the GFS. This seemed to be a good candidate for that sort of gradual attenuation as the run cycles went by. Doesn't seem to be happening, however. Interesting... 2 .. maybe that's what the Euro's been after .. but there are two issues going on with that model for me. One, it thinks this is attenuating, but two, it is not handling the N stream/confluence and the particulars of the higher pressure up N the same way. Not sure why... just what the model behaviors been doing. Obviously, that is hugely instrumental in what ptype occurs where. 3 .. one aspect I like for QPF is that there is a staggered formation in the jet fields, where the 850 mb rides NE up and over the frontal interface, and underneath a 700 mb exit region from E NYS over SNE. Then, above that there is the 500 mb, a similar right exit region accelerating the field E, N of the 700 mb axis.. Finally, at 300 mb, there is whopper 150 to 175 kt right entrance/exit region jet blasting from ORD -CAR.. Basically that looks like this can produce a significant frontogenic banding/slantwise instability, and may be related to how the "robust" look I mentioned above is occurring. It's sort of an over-achiever because of these jet couplets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This surface high. February 4. Deep packs. It’s a lot colder than this NAM run. Bank on it. Cold tuck to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This surface high. February 4. Deep packs. It’s a lot colder than this NAM run. Bank on it. Cold tuck to Philly The Pope has spoken ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Where does the band of snow setup on the Ukie? Does it keep the Lakes Region snow or does the mix get all the way up to the Whites? I don't have access 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This surface high. February 4. Deep packs. It’s a lot colder than this NAM run. Bank on it. Cold tuck to Philly Back in the day the TV/radio mets would always mention the snowpack in situations like the one expected on friday. The popular term was "outdoor refrigerator" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Where does the band of snow setup on the Ukie? Does it keep the Lakes Region snow or does the mix get all the way up to the Whites? I don't have access Looks like all snow there on Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 2” of rain here on top of a pack could flood out basements fairly easily around here. Awesomeness......warm rain and dews melting all the snow and then a deep freeze. Mud season the way it ought to be. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Folks in NNE/CNE should not be worried about this next one, Euro will end up ticking south again at 12z, GFS ticking back north as its to far south, The consensus will be in the middle over this area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Folks in NNE/CNE should not be worried about this next one, Euro will end up ticking south again at 12z, GFS ticking back north as its to far south, The consensus will be in the middle over this area. Unless the Euro shows very lil juice/precip, like it did at 6z…basically a fropa. We’ll see in 25 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Awesomeness......warm rain and dews melting all the snow and then a deep freeze. Mud season the way it ought to be. What you really want is a good rain with DP’ in the 30s and then a freeze to really lock qpf in the pack. Then follow that with a high QPF, warm rainer in a few weeks to get all of that ice piling up against the bridge abutments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Unless the Euro shows very lil juice/precip, like it did at 6z…basically a fropa. We’ll see in 25 minutes. Obviously If its weak it will be a fropa and i mentioned about an amped vs non amped s/w earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Unless the Euro shows very lil juice/precip, like it did at 6z…basically a fropa. We’ll see in 25 minutes. 06z euro had plenty of snow in CNE/NNE. It was just less juicy down here by the time it flipped over. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Unless the Euro shows very lil juice/precip, like it did at 6z…basically a fropa. We’ll see in 25 minutes. It was fine up here with precip. It’s been pretty consistent. Just slow creeps south on temps. I expect the GFS to be the model that bends the knee this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Folks in NNE/CNE should not be worried about this next one, Euro will end up ticking south again at 12z, GFS ticking back north as its to far south, The consensus will be in the middle over this area. Have you made a map for the boys over at HCS yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 UK seems to be a view of a decent solution between GFS and Euro if they were to compromise in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 The actual amount of precip is secondary to the fact of getting the cold in place before it arrives and how far south that happens quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, mreaves said: Have you made a map for the boys over at HCS yet? Not yet, I'll be working on that this afternoon after this run i should have seen enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: UK seems to be a view of a decent solution between GFS and Euro if they were to compromise in the middle. Might be the "Broken clock is right twice a day" scenario for the Ukie. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: The actual amount of precip is secondary to the fact of getting the cold in place before it arrives and how far south that happens quickly. I agree, but was it you or somebody else(maybe Will?) who said earlier, that it doesn’t matter how cold it gets if there’s no precip? Lol. Everybody has Different ideas..I get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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