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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think he was looking at the 00z run...you aren't below freezing until after 12z Fri on the 12z run. It's not 50s and rain though either for you.

You know I hate when ppl screw up interpretations of model runs and I gotta apologize and kick myself . I was on pivotal and switched to 12z saw it out to 120 hours and hit 2m temps , have no idea how 0z populated (I was on it mins before ) . Just kick me 

at least Nashua is at 24f at that time and it looks like pike north is 32 and below 

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I'm surprised this system is bullied along so robustly in these guidance to begin with ..

It's a flat wave - yeah we know .. But, it's also being pulled up through a larger synoptic confluence at mid/U/A levels.  The OV is the 'rejoining' axis of the southern stream with the northern stream.  Yet this just has enough identity left after the fact ...  (GFS and company) to get interesting after the fact.  I've been on the fence with that.

1 .. models tend to see the mid range through a magnifying glass. Scoping out middling events as majors, minors and middling ...etc, has been a leitmotif of the global numerical models - particularly the GFS.  This seemed to be a good candidate for that sort of gradual attenuation as the run cycles went by.   Doesn't seem to be happening, however.   Interesting...

2 .. maybe that's what the Euro's been after .. but there are two issues going on with that model for me. One, it thinks this is attenuating, but two, it is not handling the N stream/confluence and the particulars of the higher pressure up N the same way.  Not sure why... just what the model behaviors been doing. Obviously, that is hugely instrumental in what ptype occurs where.  

3 .. one aspect I like for QPF is that there is a staggered formation in the jet fields, where the 850 mb rides NE up and over the frontal interface, and underneath a 700 mb exit region from E NYS over SNE. Then, above that there is the 500 mb, a similar right exit region accelerating the field E, N of the 700 mb axis..  Finally, at 300 mb, there is whopper 150 to 175 kt right entrance/exit region jet blasting from ORD -CAR.. Basically that looks like this can produce a significant frontogenic banding/slantwise instability, and may be related to how the "robust" look I mentioned above is occurring. It's sort of an over-achiever because of these jet couplets.    

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This surface high. February 4. Deep packs. 
 

It’s a lot colder than this NAM run. Bank on it. Cold tuck to Philly 

A269C434-5154-4201-BAFE-1D65720E6EB2.png

Back in the day the TV/radio  mets would always mention the snowpack in situations like the one expected on friday. The popular term was "outdoor refrigerator"

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Folks in NNE/CNE should not be worried about this next one, Euro will end up ticking south again at 12z, GFS ticking back north as its to far south, The consensus will be in the middle over this area.

Unless the Euro shows very lil juice/precip, like it did at 6z…basically a fropa.  We’ll see in 25 minutes. 

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13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Awesomeness......warm rain and dews melting all the snow and then a deep freeze.  Mud season the way it ought to be.

What you really want is a good rain with DP’ in the 30s and then a freeze to really lock qpf in the pack.  Then follow that with a high QPF, warm rainer in a few weeks to get all of that ice piling up against the bridge abutments.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Unless the Euro shows very lil juice/precip, like it did at 6z…basically a fropa.  We’ll see in 25 minutes. 

06z euro had plenty of snow in CNE/NNE. It was just less juicy down here by the time it flipped over.

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10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Folks in NNE/CNE should not be worried about this next one, Euro will end up ticking south again at 12z, GFS ticking back north as its to far south, The consensus will be in the middle over this area.

Have you made a map for the boys over at HCS yet?

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The actual amount of precip is secondary to the fact of getting the cold in place before it arrives and how far south that happens quickly.

I agree, but was it you or somebody else(maybe Will?) who said earlier, that it doesn’t matter how cold it gets if there’s no precip?  Lol.  
 

Everybody has Different ideas..I get it. 

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