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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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Nailing down who gets what and how much, YUCK!
Without question it's warmer, it's colder comments will passed with each model run.
It's going to be a razors edge. Soundings, cross-sections will be critical to getting this one right, right up to go time.
Everything is on the table at this time.  

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14 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

 

Yup! Just like what Tip wrote. 

You don't even have to look at the NAVGEM's specifications to realize it. It's so badly truncated just like the JMA. Theoretically, the NAVGEM should still perform well aloft, but it just always sucks. Not even worth my time to look up its configuration.

The JMA has an excuse at least - a global model with the intent to 'feed' a regional/mesoscale model somewhere over Asia (:cough: Japan :end cough:). Think of the JMA as NCEP's 1 degree GFS. The purpose of global models is to initialize finer scale modeling systems. You can't run a regional or mesoscale model without updating its boundary conditions. Otherwise, you'll end up with a model that simply advects weather outside its domain.

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Just now, MegaMike said:

Yup! Just like what Tip wrote. 

You don't even have to look at the NAVGEM's specifications to realize it. It's so badly truncated just like the JMA. Theoretically, the NAVGEM should still perform well aloft, but it just always sucks. Not even worth my time to look up its configuration.

The JMA has an excuse at least - a global model with the intent to 'feed' a regional/mesoscale model somewhere over Asia (:cough: Japan :end cough:). Think of the JMA as NCEP's 1 degree GFS. The purpose of global models is to initialize finer scale modeling systems. You can't run a regional or mesoscale model without updating its boundary conditions. Otherwise, you'll end up with a model that simply advects weather outside its domain.

this is heresy

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah looked a shade more amped....no surpise given what we just saw from the RGEM

With the FV3-Hires replacing the NAM, the NCEP suite will soon be in a similar situation for winter forecasting...the usefulness of our hires will be pretty much limited to telling us what the global is going to do a few minutes later.

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah, phin over to dryslot is looking solid....the bigger question is does this come south enough to give warning snows to the pike or the MA/NH border...or does it bump north and introduce a bit more sleet there, but I still think you'd flip to plenty of snow anyway.

Thoughts on the Southern Green ski areas Will?

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I like where I am for this event. 

I used Weatherbell and they have snow, sleet and freezing rain products.  I don't know how accurate the sleet and freezing rain products are but it looks like someone in SNE or the upper Mid Atlantic is going to get a crippling ice storm. This would have a much bigger impact than a 20" powder blizzard.  Where that band sets up is the question.  Below is based on 12Z GFS run

ice.jpg

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4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

There's actually a surprising list of famous people from canada. jim carrey, ryan gosling, ryan reynolds, celine dion, drake, seth rogan, michael j fox, mike meyers, the rock, elon sucks, keanu reeves, rachel mcadams, etc etc etc

And yet, you've written them all off.

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Way more ?

Has 8” to SNH and solid to about pike 

the move did definitely effect holliston as they were on line more 

It was pretty far south at 00z....that was a good bump north. Doesn't mean it's right...

 

12z Fri, the freezing line is near CT/MA border on the 12z run....it's down near the south coast on the 00z run. That's a solid 30-40 miles.

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BOX unenthused this morning, for both snow and fzra threats.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights...

* Rain changes to sleet/snow Friday - minor accumulations most
  likely with slippery travel possible
* Dry and cold over the weekend

Main concern revolves around potential for rain changing to sleet
and snow late Thu night and Friday as colder air works into region
behind cold front. Plenty of large scale lift in place courtesy of
right rear quad of upper jet and mid level short wave rotating
through New England, along with plentiful moisture with PWATs
climbing to around 1" courtesy of broad SW flow aloft.

Challenge for this forecast is how quickly and how deep cold air
gets into SNE which has a direct impact on precipitation type and
resultant snow/ice amounts. Majority of models present an overall
warmer solution with slower transition to sleet and snow during day
Friday, while GFS remains the cold outlier and has a much faster
transition taking place Thu night and Fri morning, even down to the
South Coast. In fact, models have quite the temperature difference
Friday morning with NAM showing temps in 40s and 50s near coast
while GFS has temperatures below freezing! This colder solution
seems to be result of GFS having a much stronger surface high (1044
mb) over southern Canada as opposed to NAM, ECMWF, and Canadian
which have a weaker high (1030-1035 mb). Looking at individual
ensemble members, they all support their operational runs but some
of the Canadian members do have the stronger surface high.

At this point it is premature to jump on to the colder and more
aggressive solution, since it can be considered a low chance at this
point, but we can`t rule out this outlier solution completely
either. Leaning more toward NBM guidance, which gives a reasonable
compromise, suggests transition from rain to sleet and snow from
north to south Friday starting near VT/NH border before daybreak
reaching Hartford-Worcester-Boston Fri morning, and progressing to
Cape Cod Canal early Fri afternoon before reaching outer Cape and
Nantucket later in day.

Low level cold air should deepen quickly, such that threat of
freezing rain is minimal during transition. However we do think
there will be some impact to travel as temperatures drop below
freezing and transition to sleet and snow results in slippery
travel. It`s possible that Winter Weather Advisories will be needed.
Best chance of seeing minor snow accumulation is along and north of
Mass Pike, where a couple of inches is possible, with little if any
accumulation farther south.

Keep in mind snowfall totals are highly dependent upon the
changeover timing. Although we have a good idea on trends right now,
we probably won`t have a better handle on exact timing until we get
into window of high resolution models Wednesday night or even
Thursday.

Beyond Friday, it does appear that cold and dry weather will
dominate this weekend as high pressure builds over New England. A
weak low passing SE of region may bring some light snow Monday, or
rain/snow near South Coast.
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