ROOSTA Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Nailing down who gets what and how much, YUCK! Without question it's warmer, it's colder comments will passed with each model run. It's going to be a razors edge. Soundings, cross-sections will be critical to getting this one right, right up to go time. Everything is on the table at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx37 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Verbatim, the 15.3 that it shows for BOS...is it possible it's counting sleet as snow or is that pretty accurate re: sleet/snow/fzra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Looks north to me Yeah looked a shade more amped....no surpise given what we just saw from the RGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 hours ago, bristolri_wx said: Yup! Just like what Tip wrote. You don't even have to look at the NAVGEM's specifications to realize it. It's so badly truncated just like the JMA. Theoretically, the NAVGEM should still perform well aloft, but it just always sucks. Not even worth my time to look up its configuration. The JMA has an excuse at least - a global model with the intent to 'feed' a regional/mesoscale model somewhere over Asia (:cough: Japan :end cough:). Think of the JMA as NCEP's 1 degree GFS. The purpose of global models is to initialize finer scale modeling systems. You can't run a regional or mesoscale model without updating its boundary conditions. Otherwise, you'll end up with a model that simply advects weather outside its domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, MegaMike said: Yup! Just like what Tip wrote. You don't even have to look at the NAVGEM's specifications to realize it. It's so badly truncated just like the JMA. Theoretically, the NAVGEM should still perform well aloft, but it just always sucks. Not even worth my time to look up its configuration. The JMA has an excuse at least - a global model with the intent to 'feed' a regional/mesoscale model somewhere over Asia (:cough: Japan :end cough:). Think of the JMA as NCEP's 1 degree GFS. The purpose of global models is to initialize finer scale modeling systems. You can't run a regional or mesoscale model without updating its boundary conditions. Otherwise, you'll end up with a model that simply advects weather outside its domain. this is heresy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah looked a shade more amped....no surpise given what we just saw from the RGEM With the FV3-Hires replacing the NAM, the NCEP suite will soon be in a similar situation for winter forecasting...the usefulness of our hires will be pretty much limited to telling us what the global is going to do a few minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def a tick warmer at 72h aloft, but juicier....that's trouble for the ice areas Lots of ip then snow on soundings for me according to Narcan. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: this is heresy lol To be fair, public websites should know this and not post NAVGEM's graphics in the first place. They're confusing poor Georgy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah looked a shade more amped....no surpise given what we just saw from the RGEM Dried out too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, MegaMike said: lol To be fair, public websites should know this and not post NAVGEM's graphics in the first place. They're confusing poor Georgy. Oh no, f' the navgem. I meant your heresy against THE KING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, phin over to dryslot is looking solid....the bigger question is does this come south enough to give warning snows to the pike or the MA/NH border...or does it bump north and introduce a bit more sleet there, but I still think you'd flip to plenty of snow anyway. Thoughts on the Southern Green ski areas Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I like where I am for this event. I used Weatherbell and they have snow, sleet and freezing rain products. I don't know how accurate the sleet and freezing rain products are but it looks like someone in SNE or the upper Mid Atlantic is going to get a crippling ice storm. This would have a much bigger impact than a 20" powder blizzard. Where that band sets up is the question. Below is based on 12Z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ukie is way more amped than 00z. GFS loses an ally. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 uncle is a nice torch south of the pike, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winging_it Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 40 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This might be the storm the RT 2 corridor has been waiting for. That would be over a foot from Snowgeek to Me to Ray. Yep, the Nashoba Valley region is overdue for the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If Ukie is 50’s and rain no way Euro coming south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is way more amped than 00z. GFS loses an ally. Way more ? Has 8” to SNH and solid to about pike the move did definitely effect holliston as they were on line more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If Ukie is 50’s and rain no way Euro coming south It’s not lol it has you at 25 12z Friday am Ukie has you drop below freezing approx 6z Friday am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Way more ? Has 8” to SNH and solid to about pike the move did definitely effect holliston as they were on line more At this time I wouldn't both much stock in any of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s not lol sure it is...for new jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: There's actually a surprising list of famous people from canada. jim carrey, ryan gosling, ryan reynolds, celine dion, drake, seth rogan, michael j fox, mike meyers, the rock, elon sucks, keanu reeves, rachel mcadams, etc etc etc And yet, you've written them all off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, mreaves said: And yet, you've written them all off. Correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is way more amped than 00z. GFS loses an ally. Yeah, GFS is very lonely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Way more ? Has 8” to SNH and solid to about pike the move did definitely effect holliston as they were on line more It was pretty far south at 00z....that was a good bump north. Doesn't mean it's right... 12z Fri, the freezing line is near CT/MA border on the 12z run....it's down near the south coast on the 00z run. That's a solid 30-40 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s not lol it has you at 25 12z Friday am Ukie has you drop below freezing approx 6z Friday am Oh I read Wills post and it sounded furnaced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 A lot of rain on top of a pack for CT. Prep your basements folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Uncle hitting the flask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 BOX unenthused this morning, for both snow and fzra threats. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights... * Rain changes to sleet/snow Friday - minor accumulations most likely with slippery travel possible * Dry and cold over the weekend Main concern revolves around potential for rain changing to sleet and snow late Thu night and Friday as colder air works into region behind cold front. Plenty of large scale lift in place courtesy of right rear quad of upper jet and mid level short wave rotating through New England, along with plentiful moisture with PWATs climbing to around 1" courtesy of broad SW flow aloft. Challenge for this forecast is how quickly and how deep cold air gets into SNE which has a direct impact on precipitation type and resultant snow/ice amounts. Majority of models present an overall warmer solution with slower transition to sleet and snow during day Friday, while GFS remains the cold outlier and has a much faster transition taking place Thu night and Fri morning, even down to the South Coast. In fact, models have quite the temperature difference Friday morning with NAM showing temps in 40s and 50s near coast while GFS has temperatures below freezing! This colder solution seems to be result of GFS having a much stronger surface high (1044 mb) over southern Canada as opposed to NAM, ECMWF, and Canadian which have a weaker high (1030-1035 mb). Looking at individual ensemble members, they all support their operational runs but some of the Canadian members do have the stronger surface high. At this point it is premature to jump on to the colder and more aggressive solution, since it can be considered a low chance at this point, but we can`t rule out this outlier solution completely either. Leaning more toward NBM guidance, which gives a reasonable compromise, suggests transition from rain to sleet and snow from north to south Friday starting near VT/NH border before daybreak reaching Hartford-Worcester-Boston Fri morning, and progressing to Cape Cod Canal early Fri afternoon before reaching outer Cape and Nantucket later in day. Low level cold air should deepen quickly, such that threat of freezing rain is minimal during transition. However we do think there will be some impact to travel as temperatures drop below freezing and transition to sleet and snow results in slippery travel. It`s possible that Winter Weather Advisories will be needed. Best chance of seeing minor snow accumulation is along and north of Mass Pike, where a couple of inches is possible, with little if any accumulation farther south. Keep in mind snowfall totals are highly dependent upon the changeover timing. Although we have a good idea on trends right now, we probably won`t have a better handle on exact timing until we get into window of high resolution models Wednesday night or even Thursday. Beyond Friday, it does appear that cold and dry weather will dominate this weekend as high pressure builds over New England. A weak low passing SE of region may bring some light snow Monday, or rain/snow near South Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh I read Wills post and it sounded furnaced I think he was looking at the 00z run...you aren't below freezing until after 12z Fri on the 12z run. It's not 50s and rain though either for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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