ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL just make your forecast then and stop ripping and reading each model run if you have it sorted already. Dude, we all have a general feeling of how these often trend....but that doesn't mean there's no exceptions. I think everyone is kind of expecting a bump back north at some point, but the question is do we trend this a little colder first. Southern stream juicy overrunners will try and bump north late in the game in my experience. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: definitely possible. it's hard to get fzra I can envision 3-6” of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: mostly sleet for the hartford area NYC crushed with a ice storm I wonder what the high end is for sleet accumulation in this general area (SNE) I think it was in '08 or so when I had my plow route we had two separate storms with lots of sleet, most I'd ever seen. One was like 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: The trend is not Hartford's friend I mean a 50 mile shift south is still in the cards. Say, with the low off Cape May. Though, so is a NNE special. GFS is still the coldest model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I can envision 3-6” of sleet After a few beers, sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I can envision 3-6” of sleet super boring lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: LOL just make your forecast then and stop ripping and reading each model run if you have it sorted already. I did, Its 8-12" here, Should be the same for you, Its not hard to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Dude, we all have a general feeling of how these often trend....but that doesn't mean there's no exceptions. I think everyone is kind of expecting a bump back north at some point, but the question is do we trend this a little colder first. Southern stream juicy overrunners will try and bump north late in the game in my experience. It all looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 OT, but now look at the GFS for next Monday. Honestly, let this storm rain to BTV so that we get another MECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Dude, we all have a general feeling of how these often trend....but that doesn't mean there's no exceptions. I think everyone is kind of expecting a bump back north at some point, but the question is do we trend this a little colder first. Southern stream juicy overrunners will try and bump north late in the game in my experience. I've been here 65 yrs, I certainly know how these SWFE's work, They have a ceiling. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 here comes the day 5 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 aww look at that cute little ball of joy it spits out after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: It all looks good to me. 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I did, Its 8-12" here, Should be the same for you, Its not hard to figure out how these work. Yeah, phin over to dryslot is looking solid....the bigger question is does this come south enough to give warning snows to the pike or the MA/NH border...or does it bump north and introduce a bit more sleet there, but I still think you'd flip to plenty of snow anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I can envision 3-6” of sleet I can’t remember what year it was, maybe 2011 or 12, in late March or early April Greenfield got 3-4” of sleet and it was paralyzing on the roads. Accidents everywhere and impossible to clear. Luckily next day was mid 40’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, phin over to dryslot is looking solid....the bigger question is does this come south enough to give warning snows to the pike or the MA/NH border...or does it bump north and introduce a bit more sleet there, but I still think you'd flip to plenty of snow anyway. Where are you leaning as the narrow zr zone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 just misses but almost a little nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: just misses but almost a little nuke Wrong thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: aww look at that cute little ball of joy it spits out after Cute to look at but the fropa rains will push the barc zone east, giving the limited spacing, so another esne special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where are you leaning as the narrow zr zone? Prob down in CT somewhere....my gut says prob mostly south of you, but maybe you get in on it. Hard to say yet since it's fairly narrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Even for N CT the GFS is a lot of snow. Just kiss 0c around 800mb for most of the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cute to look at but the fropa rains will push the barc zone east, giving the limited spacing, so another esne special. who knows. i'm not concerned with it at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: I wonder what the high end is for sleet accumulation in this general area (SNE) I think it was in '08 or so when I had my plow route we had two separate storms with lots of sleet, most I'd ever seen. One was like 3 inches February 14, 2007 was a prolific sleet storm in parts of the Hudson Valley and NW CT. I had at least 4-5" of sleet in Poughkeepsie, including thunder sleet on a couple of occasions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, phin over to dryslot is looking solid....the bigger question is does this come south enough to give warning snows to the pike or the MA/NH border...or does it bump north and introduce a bit more sleet there, but I still think you'd flip to plenty of snow anyway. You guys are certainly in the battleground area around the pike and just north, I could see you transitioning fairly quick though if the cold keeps pressing while the precip arrives to pellets then snow with ice/pellets further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Prob down in CT somewhere....my gut says prob mostly south of you, but maybe you get in on it. Hard to say yet since it's fairly narrow. dual pol will be fun to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am one tic away from a snow storm larger than the blizzard We snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I would like to see at least some support on the Euro here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 CMC is slightly futher south than 0z going off the B&W charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS narcan: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 hoping the Euro comes south at 12z GFS is a really big hit here and has 2 storms close by after this one.. Epic February incoming? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said: CMC is slightly futher south than 0z going off the B&W charts. Looks north to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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