jbenedet Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There’s work to be done. You want weaker srn stream, but then lose the juice for precip behind the front. Not much room to “win.” It’s an open wave— you don’t want a weaker southern stream unless you’re in the mid Atlantic. An open wave means you don’t have to worry about mid level warmth with a strong well positioned surface high. A sig event here is strong tropical connection meets arctic high. The surface high looks great. Keep that trend going.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Right, but it needs to be in place prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Yeah, it’s 80% wet vs white more than 80% - 0.1 to 0.2 le snow vs 1.25-1.5 total qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, jbenedet said: It’s an open wave— you don’t want a weaker southern stream unless you’re in the mid Atlantic. An open wave means you don’t have to worry about mid level warmth with a strong well positioned surface high. A sig event here is strong tropical connection meets arctic high. The surface high looks great. Keep that trend going.. That has nothing to do with mid level warmth. Mid level warm tongues laugh at surface highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: That has nothing to do with mid level warmth. Mid level warm tongues laugh at surface highs. ^ facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'm just laughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: more than 80% - 0.1 to 0.2 le snow vs 1.25-1.5 total qpf. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: ^ facts 800mb temps to a 1048 surface high 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Bleh. better for you, but not all that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 They’ll compromise in the end and we’ll get a few snow showers here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 What an odd setup this is. Ignoring current model output and just thinking logically about the setup I have to favor the warmer mix/rain solutions. 6"+ of snow in SNE from this setup just feels odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: better for you, but not all that much Agree--this is not a SNE event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I wouldn't mind some meat in the pack to help seal it up from Tippy Feb sun. It's still weak, but those days near 32 and full sun do melt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 When Leon speaks, models listen. Today should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't mind some meat in the pack to help seal it up from Tippy Feb sun. It's still weak, but those days near 32 and full sun do melt it. I agree, you closer to making the existing pack a block of ice than adding another foot to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 800mb temps to a 1048 surface high You....you sit here sweating OP runs....but Ginxy? Well, Ginxy just smiles.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 WOR needs a revenge storm. Let it rain in MetroWest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 CMC still the warmest by far at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: What an odd setup this is. Ignoring current model output and just thinking logically about the setup I have to favor the warmer mix/rain solutions. 6"+ of snow in SNE from this setup just feels odd. And 6-8” from a mega coastal felt odd too for a lot of us…when the Euro said we 12-18 the morning of. So who knows anymore. Each one will cave towards each other is the most likely outcome. There looks to be a lot of juice with this…at least on the GFS, and the Euro fropa is weird imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said: WOR needs a revenge storm. Let it rain in MetroWest. NOP needs a revenge season.... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: NOP needs a revenge season.... maybe if zion didn't eat his own foot 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9z srer ticked cooler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said: WOR needs a revenge storm. Let it rain in MetroWest. This is a latitude deal….inland vs coast won’t make much difference. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It is confusing with these kinds of threats for us in CNE/NNE border regions. The SNE folks see it as unlikely to workout so they become cynical and disengaged, which is totally understandable. I have to pay closer attention for what "looks good" and "looks like shite" "wet not whie" really means for up here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This is a latitude deal….inland vs coast won’t make much difference. We are due for a slew of these type of events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, mahk_webstah said: It is confusing with these kinds of threats for us in CNE/NNE border regions. The SNE folks see it as unlikely to workout so they become cynical and disengaged, which is totally understandable. I have to pay closer attention for what "looks good" and "looks like shite" "wet not whie" really means for up here. yeah, probably should look for yourself... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We are due for a slew of these type of events. More typical La Nina type system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 9z srer ticked cooler Lmao, That can’t be right…the Euro only has a Fropa, that’s way too much precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: More typical La Nina type system. We've had a few, but they've been too far north for me to care...this has a shot to be more beneficial for the MA/NH border region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lmao, That can’t be right…the Euro only has a Fropa, that’s way too much precip. People are still living and dying by the Euro. Euro is only good with coastal storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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