JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Why do you like the navy then? Thats like two girls liking you the same at the bar but you choose the ugly one to go home with.. The ugly ones will do anything though. They will let you stick a snowstorm anywhere you want. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This storm is making me extremely nervous. The signals for ice accumulations seem very strong here in KCON. I’m hoping the precip is heavy enough such that most of it rolls off instead of taking root. An inch of ice accumulation would be absolutely CATASTROPHIC!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, SnowGiant611 said: This storm is making me extremely nervous. The signals for ice accumulations seem very strong here in KCON. I’m hoping the precip is heavy enough such that most of it rolls off instead of taking root. An inch of ice accumulation would be absolutely CATASTROPHIC! . Catastrophic ice rarely happens…I wouldn’t be too worried. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 33 minutes ago, das said: A big, fat goose egg. I’m at 300’, 3 miles from the eastern shore of Lake Champlain. That said, a whopping 3” or so of my 22” this year has come from blocking. So, I watch the Froude numbers closely. One day, it’ll pay off. It will. There will be some Jan 2010 event again with 20-40 inches of blocked flow at the eastern lake shore. It's weird that an "upslope" event was actually BTV's largest snowstorm on record I believe with 36". There have been a few times since I've moved here full time in 2006 that the Champlain Valley has actually jackpotted on an "upslope" event with maritime moisture, cyclonic NNW winds and severe veering aloft that blocks the flow up to the lake shore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ok anyways back to the storm threat, im going to take this discussion to banter. Euro is still warm but took a step in the right direction. Hopefully it makes a bigger step towards a colder solution at 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, George001 said: Well, the gfs gave me like 3 inches of snow and the Euro gave me 2 feet. I got 20 inches, as far west as NYC got like 10 inches. I thought the Euro did a damn good job with the last storm. The gfs was so far east that it was consistently giving NYC nothing and even barely grazing Boston, until it caught on at the end. The Euro was a little too far west, but it was much closer to reality at least with the upper levels than the gfs. LOL that is not true at all. I salute you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wait how did the Euro shit itself? GFS had no storm way offshore for days and finally came back. WTF Inside 3 days it shit itself. You had multiple people commenting on that. The euro had the low kissing Coast Guard beach. The GFS did better when it counted. Euro was deforming Pete in the Berks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Ok anyways back to the storm threat, im going to take this discussion to banter. Euro is still warm but took a step in the right direction. Hopefully it makes a bigger step towards a colder solution at 0z. Oh you mean towards the GFS? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It will. There will be some Jan 2010 event again with 20-40 inches of blocked flow at the eastern lake shore. It's weird that an "upslope" event was actually BTV's largest snowstorm on record I believe with 36". There have been a few times since I've moved here full time in 2006 that the Champlain Valley has actually jackpotted on an "upslope" event with maritime moisture, cyclonic NNW winds and severe veering aloft that blocks the flow up to the lake shore. Haha. I was going to tell him about that. I Shiism have known you would pop in with that. Remember how those flakes just stacked up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 @George001, This model debate is a little silly. All the models have some value in forecasting, and the big 4, (Euro, GFS, UKMET, CMC) all have high enough verification scores where they should all be considered when issuing a forecast. Even with the last storm both the GFS and Euro were correct and incorrect in different ways. If you read the NWS AFD’s they always mention using weighted blends of the models to render their forecasts. Ignoring any one model will reduce your ability to accurately predict what’s going on if the others happen to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The ugly ones will do anything though. They will let you stick a snowstorm anywhere you want. aint that the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Inside 3 days it shit itself. You had multiple people commenting on that. The euro had the low kissing Coast Guard beach. The GFS did better when it counted. Euro was deforming Pete in the Berks. I think for me it was that once the GFS moved west and impacted eastern SNE. It locked on there in the final couple days. It took it a while, but if you compare Coop and CoCoRAHS reports of liquid equivalent, the GFS was pretty damn close in the final couple days. The Euro was ripping widespread 1-2.5" QPF way inland, with those large areas of 1"/6 hour type rates moving up through Dendy like the NAM. It was a good close in showing of the GFS despite whiffing for several days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: The gfs gave is 12+ in its last few cycles. Did not do the 2 footer though. yeah the GFS had a sig for days back, just looked at the 1/24 18z run, and other than the SE placement of the SLP, it was pretty close to accurate, even had capture in the gom... but I usually take all model data, at all levels and extrapolate that out to an outcome, and of course having legit mets on here to further explain the mechanics of everything I don't know, is even better...imho, models have not gotten much better in the last decade for the amount of money put into upgrade..one would think with each day or event, data would add to the algorithm to further aid in it's discernment of possible outcomes, to the point it should be able to come close to nailing an event days in advance, but weather an uncertainty etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh you mean towards the GFS? I hope so. I’d like the gfs to be right because it would mean more snow, but I don’t think it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 6:31 PM, MegaMike said: … Last thing. This isn't directed at you, but the NAVGEM is used by the Navy for the Navy. Please don't use it for complicated atmospheric interactions. The Navy only cares about coastal areas, oceans, and relatively deep bodies of water. That's its purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I’d go with the DGEX. (RIP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’d go with the DGEX. (RIP) Big SUNY MM5 guy myself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It will. There will be some Jan 2010 event again with 20-40 inches of blocked flow at the eastern lake shore. It's weird that an "upslope" event was actually BTV's largest snowstorm on record I believe with 36". There have been a few times since I've moved here full time in 2006 that the Champlain Valley has actually jackpotted on an "upslope" event with maritime moisture, cyclonic NNW winds and severe veering aloft that blocks the flow up to the lake shore. Haha I knew you would have the deets on his best setup. Should have summoned you with an @. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, DomNH said: Big SUNY MM5 guy myself. I used to enjoy partaking in the DGEX and MM5 over at Accuweather Pro… their 30 day trial system was broken and I had a free account for almost 3 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 hours ago, George001 said: We need the energy to be held back more. The slower the storm is to come in the more time the high has to build in. I’m not on board for this one yet, need to see the big 3 jump on board before I buy in. Navy, JMA & ICON? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, mreaves said: Haha. I was going to tell him about that. I Shiism have known you would pop in with that. Remember how those flakes just stacked up? Girlfriend's place at the time in the North End had over 30"... probably one of the biggest WTF wake-up mornings I've ever had. You do not expect an upslope signal to just absolutely mushroom cap downtown BTV. I didn't get home until later that day but renting a house in Jonesville/Richmond area I had upper teens like 17-18" of fluff (?) despite being along the west slope. The flow maximized it's lift a long way upstream from the terrain boundary. The ski area at Stowe only had like 9" and severe winds. That event led to the Froude Number study I believe. The one metric that tries to find out where the upslope band will reside. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Inside 3 days it shit itself. You had multiple people commenting on that. The euro had the low kissing Coast Guard beach. The GFS did better when it counted. Euro was deforming Pete in the Berks. Geezuz Euro sniffed this out a week ahead of any other model. Might have been amped on the fringes but it had a 972 outside the Cape for 10 days. Those amped runs were sub 950. I have no idea how the revisionist ideas were generated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Geezuz Euro sniffed this out a week ahead of any other model. Might have been amped on the fringes but it had a 972 outside the Cape for 10 days. Those amped runs were sub 950. I have no idea how the revisionist ideas were generated. Who cares what it had a week out. When it comes to the critical time inside 2-3 days it just did not do well. Total opposite of what it used to do inside 3 days. The GFS wasn't perfect either, but man between QPF and mid level low placement, it did decent overall. QPF was too low so adjusted for that..but Euro didn't really have a clue until Friday and that was an awful jump by that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS has been great all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Nam looks flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Nammy less suppressed in NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Who cares what it had a week out. When it comes to the critical time inside 2-3 days it just did not do well. Total opposite of what it used to do inside 3 days. The GFS wasn't perfect either, but man between QPF and mid level low placement, it did decent overall. QPF was too low so adjusted for that..but Euro didn't really have a clue until Friday and that was an awful jump by that model. What are you even talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Euro shat itself 24hr out Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Nam warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Rain up thy fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now