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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

This could be a great event for you. 

+100.  Quasigeostrophic motion FTW. Confluence at the lower levels, a strong right rear quad jet and and Gulf moisture transport from the decent lower level jet just might come together really well here Thursday night. 

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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Me neither... def doesn;t have the upside of a potential blizzard, and it will probably wind up more wet than white for SNE.   I'm beat from last week

The last one was the first one in a long time that had big potential, that's why we spent so much time tracking it, for a lot of us it didn't turn out like we hoped so the next one won't get the same attention.

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3 minutes ago, das said:

OMG,you nearly made me fall off of the treadmill. 

Haha, but in all seriousness this thing is definitely more interesting given that it has a good moisture feed. Turns it into something with some real boom potential versus a typical SWFE. I think 6-10 is still a good call but there is a potential for 12"+. Definitely want to see VT get in on this. Some real screw zones there this winter relative to climo.

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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Cuz he’s a dumb kid obviously. Shows he’s not learning much that’s for sure. 

image.thumb.jpeg.69aae9356ddf4d587372f255501aaf07.jpegThis “dumb kids’” opposition to the gfs is backed up by actual data. Whatever upgrade it got clearly didn’t do shit. The Euro always has been better and I don’t see this changing anytime soon. 

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Haha, but in all seriousness this thing is definitely more interesting given that it has a good moisture feed. Turns it into something with some real boom potential versus a typical SWFE. I think 6-10 is still a good call but there is a potential for 12"+. Definitely want to see VT get in on this. Some real screw zones there this winter relative to climo.

This is my first time living in a place that is largely cut off from Atlantic or pacific moisture. I’ve spent this entire winter forlornly looking south for any real transport from the gulf. What a waste of cold air it’s been for the past 45 days.  This one holds some promise…

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40 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, that’s not happening. I’m not giving up on the Navy, and I will never use the gfs. I fully understand what you are saying, and I am well aware of the caveats of using the Navy. My rationale for my usage of the big 3 is attached in the photo below. You don’t have to agree with it, but I have been using it and will continue to use it. This system is what I use for every storm, and although I tweak it over time I have not changed the core principles of my system. I will be open to tweaking it, but let me be clear, the big 3 is not going anywhere.

B157DFE2-8C44-4854-9628-26F314A828B5.png

There is no  “reason” nor  “rationale” “in the post below” !

One cannot believes an aspect to be true merely because they imagine and or want it’s veracity. When it’s concretely determined to be false … to persist in doing so is at a minimum determination IR-rational. Moreover it becomes an indictment of intelligence when one cannot connect with that reality  

Fine, then. Consider yourself humored along hence forth - with all the due respects and salutations commensurate to that social rank and recognition .. atta boy!

 

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Just now, das said:

This is my first time living in a place that is largely cut off from Atlantic or pacific moisture. I’ve spent this entire winter forlornly looking south for any real transport from the gulf. What a waste of cold air it’s been for the past 45 days.  This one holds some promise…

How do you do with upslope there?

Not that there has been much of that lately. Rather paltry. Even J Spin has struggled to drum up any tenths recently.

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

How do you do with upslope there?

Not that there has been much of that lately. Rather paltry. Even J Spin has struggled to drum up any tenths recently.

A big, fat goose egg. I’m at 300’, 3 miles from the eastern shore of Lake Champlain. That said, a whopping 3” or so of my 22” this year has come from blocking. So, I watch the Froude numbers closely. One day, it’ll pay off. 

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28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Cuz he’s a dumb kid obviously. Shows he’s not learning much that’s for sure. 

I think it's because everyone on here just gave him a pass when I called him out a couple of weeks ago and said "oh well! He's just being silly. He reminds everyone of James with his silly thoughts and extreme outcomes for every storm" or whatever was said.

Everyone basically said it was okay then, so he took that as a complement and continued his fantasy antics with events and models of choice. 

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8 minutes ago, das said:

A big, fat goose egg. I’m at 300’, 3 miles from the eastern shore of Lake Champlain. That said, a whopping 3” or so of my 22” this year has come from blocking. So, I watch the Froude numbers closely. One day, it’ll pay off. 

There is surely a scenario where a streamer would park over you and dump. Sounds like you are on the lookout. This is definitely a tailor-made synoptic event for you. Fingers crossed it comes together.

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7 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I think it's because everyone on here just gave him a pass when I called him out a couple of weeks ago and said "oh well! He's just being silly. He reminds everyone of James with his silly thoughts and extreme outcomes for every storm" or whatever was said.

Everyone basically said it was okay then, so he took that as a complement and continued his fantasy antics with events and models of choice. 

I certainly didn’t give him a pass. But you’re right others did. 

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18 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Do the cmc and navy tho

The Canadian is neck and neck with the GFS in terms of verification score. That’s not great, admittedly I expected it to be better, I will have to adjust my system accordingly. However, the Canadian has a consistent bias (it is horrendous with thermals and tends to be overamped with storms). This makes it easier to adjust for the model bias and weigh it accordingly. The GFS is sometimes too amped, sometimes too weak, who the hell knows. How am I supposed to mentally adjust for its biases when it is just… erratic. As expected though, the Euro was by far the best. The Navy’s verification wasn’t on the site I used, but it is likely horrendous. 

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Canadian is neck and neck with the GFS in terms of verification score. That’s not great, admittedly I expected it to be better, I will have to adjust my system accordingly. However, the Canadian has a consistent bias (it is horrendous with thermals and tends to be overamped with storms). This makes it easier to adjust for the model bias and weigh it accordingly. The GFS is sometimes too amped, sometimes too weak, who the hell knows. How am I supposed to mentally adjust for its biases when it is just… erratic. As expected though, the Euro was by far the best. The Navy’s verification wasn’t on the site I used, but it is likely horrendous. 

We don’t live on spread sheets. The euro shit itself last storm.  Those metrics encompass the northern hemisphere at 500mb. 500 mb is just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to the results at the surface. The euro isn’t much better than the gfs. 

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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Canadian is neck and neck with the GFS in terms of verification score. That’s not great, admittedly I expected it to be better, I will have to adjust my system accordingly. However, the Canadian has a consistent bias (it is horrendous with thermals and tends to be overamped with storms). This makes it easier to adjust for the model bias and weigh it accordingly. The GFS is sometimes too amped, sometimes too weak, who the hell knows. How am I supposed to mentally adjust for its biases when it is just… erratic. As expected though, the Euro was by far the best. The Navy’s verification wasn’t on the site I used, but it is likely horrendous. 

Why do you like the navy then? Thats like two girls liking you the same at the bar but you choose the ugly one to go home with..

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

We don’t live on spread sheets. The euro shit itself last storm.  Those metrics encompass the northern hemisphere at 500mb. 500 mb is just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to the results at the surface. The euro isn’t much better than the gfs. 

Well, the gfs gave me like 3 inches of snow and the Euro gave me 2 feet. I got 20 inches, as far west as NYC got like 10 inches. I thought the Euro did a damn good job with the last storm. The gfs was so far east that it was consistently giving NYC nothing and even barely grazing Boston, until it caught on at the end. The Euro was a little too far west, but it was much closer to reality at least with the upper levels than the gfs. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We don’t live on spread sheets. The euro shit itself last storm.  Those metrics encompass the northern hemisphere at 500mb. 500 mb is just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to the results at the surface. The euro isn’t much better than the gfs. 

Wait how did the Euro shit itself? GFS had no storm way offshore for days and finally came back. WTF

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7 minutes ago, George001 said:

Well, the gfs gave me like 3 inches of snow and the Euro gave me 2 feet. I got 20 inches, as far west as NYC got like 10 inches. I thought the Euro did a damn good job with the last storm. The gfs was so far east that it was consistently giving NYC nothing and even barely grazing Boston, until it caught on at the end. The Euro was a little too far west, but it was much closer to reality at least with the upper levels than the gfs. 

The gfs gave is 12+ in its last few cycles.   Did not do the 2 footer though.

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