PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Actually a tad colder here it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If 00z is not colder . It’s done . Wiped 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Gets a late press…esp at surface…despite being a little more amped early on. The southern stream is producing a pretty nice wave and northern stream trying to enhance it at the end…might actually be a nice burst of snow even into SNE if we could see another panel or two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Seems colder to me anyway But I'm on mobile lol At hr 72 it was colder than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 It is a tic or two colder and had more to go too, Not enough for folks south but it was further north here at 12z then the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 The euro flinched 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Would be a huge run for NNE if it kept going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: The euro flinched Baby steps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The euro flinched The shift means more up our way. It's still much further north with the good snows and warmer than the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 36 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This weekend broke you, huh? The hunt for snow was unsuccessful. Demoralizing. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just comparing H85 12z 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 52 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I mean you can look up the model verification scores for free - the NAVGEM is an UN -GOOD model... It's not designed for this type of land-based meteorology. It is used by the NAVY for NAVY purposes in the high seas and wave-guide. It's not only an UN -GOOD ( fact! ) model, it is also not even being used for the right reason when you attempt to employ it's solutions and then attempt to comparing. Jesus Christ. stop it. Unless you're mentally challenged and don't understand these turns of phrases, that's another story. If that's what's going one, we'll pat your head and tell ya your doing a great job - Yeah, that’s not happening. I’m not giving up on the Navy, and I will never use the gfs. I fully understand what you are saying, and I am well aware of the caveats of using the Navy. My rationale for my usage of the big 3 is attached in the photo below. You don’t have to agree with it, but I have been using it and will continue to use it. This system is what I use for every storm, and although I tweak it over time I have not changed the core principles of my system. I will be open to tweaking it, but let me be clear, the big 3 is not going anywhere. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The shift means more up our way. It's still much further north with the good snows and warmer than the GFS right now. Lot of moisture with this, The colder push needs to get here before the bulk of the precip is over or it just ends up being several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: George, Navgem sucks, cmc sucks. Pick a new 2. If it was me I’d pick gfs and euro and rotate one of the other bad models to complete your 3 legged stool. Maybe start with uncle but make sure he’s off the sauce. I don’t use the gfs and don’t plan on using it anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: They'll be more chances this year, don't throw in the towel over one bad storm. You’re right Davis, but it has soured me some currently. I don’t have the patience to follow this one like I did Saturday’s storm. I wasted too much time on that weekend POS. This is a dud for us it looks like too…. High pressure won’t press/get in here in time. Now let it prove me wrong. Gonna take the T Blizz attitude now lol. It worked big time for him Saturday. All the best to NNE on this one. I’ll be heading up in a few weeks again to sled…so it’s wanted by me up there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah, that’s not happening. I’m not giving up on the Navy, and I will never use the gfs. I fully understand what you are saying, and I am well aware of the caveats of using the Navy. My rationale for my usage of the big 3 is attached in the photo below. You don’t have to agree with it, but I have been using it and will continue to use it. This system is what I use for every storm, and although I tweak it over time I have not changed the core principles of my system. I will be open to tweaking it, but let me be clear, the big 3 is not going anywhere. This makes my hair hurt. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just comparing H85 12z 18z The southward push has begun. Even the GEFS was pushing down while the OP went north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, das said: This makes my hair hurt. This could be a great event for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, George001 said: I don’t use the gfs and don’t plan on using it anytime soon. You sound like dumb mofo George. You’ve been shown by professionals on here why the dumb ass Navy isn’t made for this type of weather, yet you still don’t get it? What silly boy you are. Now go back and stick you head in The sand! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, George001 said: I don’t use the gfs and don’t plan on using it anytime soon. While leading up to this weekend's storm, the GFS was everyone's favorite punching bag. While it certainly made mistakes as it related to QPF output, it's idea on MSLP positioning was more right than most. To simply disregard it due to some past experience is the opposite of what you should be doing as a forecaster. Take your emotional biases out of the equation, or better yet maintain a log of how your tier model lists have performed from a QPF and MSLP location perspective, and I'm sure you'll see that a change is in order. Best of luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The southward push has begun. Even the GEFS was pushing down while the OP went north. Models do this all the time when there is cold near by, Its under estimated until we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You’re right Davis, but it has soured me some currently. I don’t have the patience to follow this one like I did Saturday’s storm. I wasted too much time on that weekend POS. This is a dud for us it looks like too…. High pressure won’t press/get in here in time. Now let it prove me wrong. Gonna take the T Blizz attitude now lol. It worked big time for him Saturday. All the best to NNE on this one. I’ll be heading up in a few weeks again to sled…so it’s wanted by me up there too. I do not foresee a 400+ page thread for this... Hopefully we can pull a stat padder at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, George001 said: I don’t use the gfs and don’t plan on using it anytime soon. Why? As many have said it’s been better than euro. Why can’t you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I do not foresee a 400+ page thread for this... Hopefully we can pull a stat padder at least... No, not 400 plus, but if this trends positively..the page count will sore. Especially since a lot of us missed out Saturday. But I guess my point was more that I won’t be staying up for late night runs on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: No, not 400 plus, but if this trends positively..the page count will sore. Especially since a lot of us missed out Saturday. But I guess my point was more that I won’t be staying up for late night runs on this one. Me neither... def doesn;t have the upside of a potential blizzard, and it will probably wind up more wet than white for SNE. I'm beat from last week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Why? As many have said it’s been better than euro. Why can’t you see that? Cuz he’s a dumb kid obviously. Shows he’s not learning much that’s for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Me neither... def doesn;t have the upside of a potential blizzard, and it will probably wind up more wet than white for SNE. I'm beat from last week Exactly this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just looking back at the past few Euro runs, it looks pretty consistent to me. Seems to be pretty well focused-in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Just looking back at the past few Euro runs, it looks pretty consistent to me. Seems to be pretty well focused-in. Just noise the last few runs. For MBY, hopefully it will be less amped at 0z Or even a few steps towards that. I'll give it a few more cycles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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