CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: My guess is the other guidance is more correct. You have a weak strung-out sfc reflection and a very dense low-level arctic airmass to the north….what is going to resist it? That’s what I said to Steve. The low is weak POS. Not sure why it would slow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Hubbdave was right. He was right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: Northwest SNE comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, mreaves said: Warnings are up for most of VT Forecast totals haven't changed that much 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Ohboyohboyohboyeeeee… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That’s what I said to Steve. The low is weak POS. Not sure why it would slow? Yeah I would understand it if the sfc front was kind of straddled over us but the euro has it WAY south when it’s still above freezing. Like it rots ORH near 32 despite the sfc front down near the south coast….it’s like neutral temp advection for 6 hours despite a frigid arctic high to the north and clear northerly ageo flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Wonder if euro is doing its usual bullsh*t of too much diabetic temp heating. It’s like as soon as the sun rises, it refuses to drop the sfc temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 @HoarfrostHubbI'll tell my sister I was right about you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: @HoarfrostHubbI'll tell my sister I was right about you. Is she hot? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is definitely all by itself on the surface/BL cold pressing in very weakly. Nah everything went warm and rainy. Chewbacca said so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: @HoarfrostHubbI'll tell my sister I was right about you. Pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Is she hot? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, JC-CT said: This is either a kiss of death of a full blown ice storm or all rain!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wonder if euro is doing its usual bullsh*t of too much diabetic temp heating. It’s like as soon as the sun rises, it refuses to drop the sfc temps. Feb is usually when the Tip solar algorithm is installed in the Euro., 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Feb is usually when the Tip solar algorithm is installed in the Euro., The nape knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nah everything went warm and rainy. Chewbacca said so Aloft it is. The surface is different I think. If anything, might be more setup for ZR there, if these trends aloft hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: The nape knows If: "February" Then: "Nape" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m calling for Over 1” Of rain with mostly sleet and a little parting snow in the end. Congrats on tree takedowns and power outages with that. Yesterday was 2 inches of rain and flooded basements everywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nah everything went warm and rainy. Chewbacca said so It has but you may squeeze out like 0.25 of zr there after a good soaking rain. I hope you get the damage that you seek friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Aloft it is. The surface is different I think. If anything, might be more setup for ZR there, if these trends aloft hold. Box is really not buying any ZR threat for most of the area. Says it's sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I would understand it if the sfc front was kind of straddled over us but the euro has it WAY south when it’s still above freezing. Like it rots ORH near 32 despite the sfc front down near the south coast….it’s like neutral temp advection for 6 hours despite a frigid arctic high to the north and clear northerly ageo flow. Strange days indeed. Will be interesting watching temps tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Box is really not buying any ZR threat for most of the area. Says it's sleet. I hope so. A big sleeter is always cool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 In lower levels, models are starting to converge as NAM/ECMWF have trended colder, albeit not quite as cold as GFS. Forecast soundings show very favorable signal for a rapid transition from rain to sleet (perhaps a brief period of freezing rain but that would be very short lived). Note the warm nose aloft (+2 to 3C) and a deepening near surface cold layer (-8 to -10C) up to 950 mb. Models also show a good slug of QPF once the transition occurs, so this could be one of those rare cases where sleet persists for several hours before changing to snow as warm nose eventually cools. How fast this all takes place is key as to how long it takes for sleet to change to snow and obviously impacts accumulations of each. At this point, we are becoming more confident that higher snow/sleet accumulations will be north of Mass Pike, especially along and north of Route 2 where 2-4" totals are possible. Totals should lower to 1- 3" along Mass Pike and 1" or less farther south, but keep in mind these totals may need to be bumped up a little in subsequent forecasts should colder trend continue on models. It`s also possible that we see more sleet vs snow along and south of Mass Pike, perhaps as much as 1-2" of sleet alone. The combination of rapidly falling temperatures Friday could result in a flash freeze and the transition to snow/sleet is expected to result in hazardous travel. Since timing is centered around the morning commute and into afternoon, and could have a significant impact, we will issue a Winter Storm Watch for our northern CT, northern RI, and all of our MA zones except south coast, Cape Cod, and Islands (including the larger metro areas). Note that icing from any freezing rain should be minimal (just a few hundredths) and we do not expect any impacts from ice accretion on trees or power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Box is really not buying any ZR threat for most of the area. Says it's sleet. It probably will be. But a narrow area could have pretty good icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: It probably will be. But a narrow area could have pretty good icing. Models seem to be converging on NW CT/ W MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yesterday was 2 inches of rain and flooded basements everywhere? It was 1-2” and yes, runoff like that can flood your basement’s fairly easily. I never called for all rain either so don’t DIT twist my words please. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 very light under the radar beam snow here. I will channel DIT and say that our 60 hour+ event has begun! Days and Days!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6z euro temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It was 1-2” and yes, runoff like that can flood your basement’s fairly easily. I never called for all rain either so don’t DIT twist my words please. He wouldn't have to twist anything if you weren't bleeding with envy, bitter, angry and downtrodden over missing the blizzard of a lifetime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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