Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

The low level cold is pretty robust and filtering in throughout the storm.  This seems to be the recipe for a significant ice event for someone if it comes in ahead of the precip which seems to be the solution models are converging upon.  Details on location TBD but seems to be CT up to Rt 2 is the corridor to watch.  Hopefully it's IP and not ZR.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting, Euro looks like it would be a lot of ice and then a few inches of snow around my area and then more snow to the north. I thought for sure the outlier gfs would move to the Euro, but it looks like the goalposts are narrowing, but closer to a colder gfs solution than the warmer ideas. Maybe I should be a little more open minded towards it like many of you said. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

Viewership for this storm is on the low side... NCEP "weather executives" are preparing the NAM for a region wide dump of snow at 18z followed by a cutting the low through Toronto at 00z to "spice things up." ;)

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And know the GFS coming back towards the euro last 3 runs, In the end its going to be in the middle ground give or take.

trend-gfs-2022020100-f096.sn10_acc.us_ne.gif

I'd say middle ground will be 65%gfs coldest solution and 35% euro warmest solution.. so more a a cave to GFS unless gfs and euro both go north til game time.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

We hear that often...blend the two there you go!  How often does that really pan out and verify?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

 

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

And in the end, I think this is where it will be, You could have said this even yesterday as you had the goal post of GFS south and Euro north, I think you had said or Scott said somewhere in the middle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

People get too stuck on one model having to cave to another, when usually they are all moving around in different ways trying to find a solution.

People love the horse race. 

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What if GFS goes north? Who is King?

We’re evolving. Monarchy is so 2012.

Coalition government ftw.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...