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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Steve

The 00z and 06z runs Friday.

I just looked and maybe it wasn’t quite as bad as I remember it, but it did flinch west for a couple of runs close in which made some forecasters go big in the western zones since it matched the NAM.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I certainly didn’t give him a pass. But you’re right others did. 

Yeah no, that post wasn't directed at you at all. You just happened to post something related, so I thought I'd piggyback. 

You know what I'm saying though and see right through the BS like I do. Others unfortunately just instigate.

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I just looked and maybe it wasn’t quite as bad as I remember it, but it did flinch west for a couple of runs close in which made some forecasters go big in the western zones since it matched the NAM.

I agree there were burps but that happens all the time. The GFS finally caught on inside 24 but no way did it out perform the Euro which consistently had a KU from NJ NYC LI Boston up to Maine. 

The huge difference in these 2 models now inside 72 hrs for this overrunning is pretty amazing.  Who will be more right this time? Personally hope the GFS does, realistically bet the Euro has a better handle.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Amped and warm aloft is the concern. Elevation doesn’t matter if there’s a sneaky 700-800mb warm layer.  The precip looks to be there given 2-3 standard deviation moisture feed.  Just hope it’s a cold enough column.

I might be naive, but I haven’t seen much ZR or sleet here at all. It’s either rain or snow.  The mid-slope deal here seems to just set up that way. If this ends up too warm to snow I expect to be rain to some FZDR I guess if temps are as cold as they say. Maybe it’s the MA in me, but cold air chasing rain never equals an ice storm. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I agree there were burps but that happens all the time. The GFS finally caught on inside 24 but no way did it out perform the Euro which consistently had a KU from NJ NYC LI Boston up to Maine. 

The huge difference in these 2 models now inside 72 hrs fir this is pretty amazing.  Who will be more right this time? Personally hope the GFS does, realistically bet the Euro has a better handle.

I just think the gfs was fairly consistent from Friday on. Maybe even Thursday night. That euro runs from 00z to 12. Friday? Woof. I Don’t have faith in euro like I used to, and that mentality helped the forecast for Saturday. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I just think the gfs was fairly consistent from Friday on. Maybe even Thursday night. That euro runs from 00z to 12. Friday? Woof. I Don’t have faith in euro like I used to, and that mentality helped the forecast for Saturday. 

I had 12 to 18 ct river east and 18 to 30 RI to Aematt all based on the Euro. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just think the gfs was fairly consistent from Friday on. Maybe even Thursday night. That euro runs from 00z to 12. Friday? Woof. I Don’t have faith in euro like I used to, and that mentality helped the forecast for Saturday. 

So going with gfs for  Friday?

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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I agree there were burps but that happens all the time. The GFS finally caught on inside 24 but no way did it out perform the Euro which consistently had a KU from NJ NYC LI Boston up to Maine. 

The huge difference in these 2 models now inside 72 hrs fir this is pretty amazing.  Who will be more right this time? Personally hope the GFS does, realistically bet the Euro has a better handle.

The euro was KU’ing here though while the GFS didn’t. ;)

I’ve just been disappointed with the euro’s inconsistency. It’s difficult to forecast with when it’s jumping around in close range. Looks like 27/18 and 28/00 were the really amped runs.D01CF4E9-C635-4F32-B8A8-0A8422737103.gif


Anyway…back to the storm at hand.

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