CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You weren't forecasting a Feb 7-9, 2015 redux with 2 feet at BOS? Maybe 12-18 Monday after SB? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Rain to sleet to snow on that run. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I can’t do it on my phone I need a big ass monitor. Lol Usually im ok on the phone, but not as good as when I'm sitting at the computer. But this is probably not a good system for me to do in-progress model comparison on the phone because of how many parts are moving on this one....like i can notice out west looks more suppressed but then the cold press up in Ontario/Quebec is a little less and that can cause conflicting signals. When I can toggle properly, it's a lot easier to see the whole map differences. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Too bad we can;t lock that run in...that would be pretty good for a lot of the forum...NNE gets a nice chunk and SNE gets the goods later in the system and nobody torches really except maybe the south coast really early on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe 12-18 Monday after SB? Suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looks like UKMET/GFS vs Euro/CMC at the moment... If you blend all four of them you get a nice hit for NNE and ice, rain, a few inches snow, and maybe kitchen sink in SNE. Hopefully things trend towards the former rather than the latter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Usually im ok on the phone, but not as good as when I'm sitting at the computer. But this is probably not a good system for me to do in-progress model comparison on the phone because of how many parts are moving on this one....like i can notice out west looks more suppressed but then the cold press up in Ontario/Quebec is a little less and that can cause conflicting signals. When I can toggle properly, it's a lot easier to see the whole map differences. Yes, Same for me, I can see ea panel and toggle between current and previous run at H5 to see where those features are trending on the computer, Never be able to do it on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yes, Same for me, I can see ea panel and toggle between current and previous run at H5 to see where those features are trending on the computer, Never be able to do it on my phone. ya not easy to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, Same for me, I can see ea panel and toggle between current and previous run at H5 to see where those features are trending on the computer, Never be able to do it on my phone. I've had a whoopsie or two trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z CMC at hr 84 not as amped and further NE. Slightly warmer aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: 18z CMC at hr 84 not as amped and further NE. Slightly warmer aloft. trended better but still on the warm side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 39 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The chickens drowning in snow. Definitely more societal impacts with rain to ice to cement snow to fluff from RT 2 south. That scenario is trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 George, Navgem sucks, cmc sucks. Pick a new 2. If it was me I’d pick gfs and euro and rotate one of the other bad models to complete your 3 legged stool. Maybe start with uncle but make sure he’s off the sauce. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Definitely more societal impacts with rain to ice to cement snow to fluff from RT 2 south. That scenario is trouble When's the last time we had a rain to snow that had a decent accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 CMC being further NE and warmer doesn’t sound good. It was already at the northern edge of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes, Same for me, I can see ea panel and toggle between current and previous run at H5 to see where those features are trending on the computer, Never be able to do it on my phone. Pivotal has a model trends option 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: George, Navgem sucks, cmc sucks. Pick a new 2. If it was me I’d pick gfs and euro and rotate one of the other bad models to complete your 3 legged stool. Maybe start with uncle but make sure he’s off the sauce. The UKMET is hilariously bad at the surface which is where he is looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: When's the last time we had a rain to snow that had a decent accumulation? Maybe 10/30/20 on the coattails of Zeta? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: When's the last time we had a rain to snow that had a decent accumulation? It happens fairly often here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: It happens fairly often here. I know its happened, just can't remember the last one, we had three sucky years though and I don't have the best memory. I remember a good one in the 90's where we got a few inches and it froze solid. PIA to move it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The UKMET is hilariously bad at the surface which is where he is looking. 18z GEFS max snowfall zone goes right through us on that run. The GEFS has been north of the OP for several runs now as there are members that think we may even been too far south… so the mean between southern members like OP and the members thinking it rains well up north goes right through us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 35 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I've had a whoopsie or two trying I don't even attempt it because i would fook it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Pivotal has a model trends option I don't use pivotal for that, And wouldn't on my phone either, You must of missed i need a big monitor, I'm on a desktop all day, My eyes are not good ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 18z GEFS max snowfall zone goes right through us on that run. The GEFS has been north of the OP for several runs now as there are members that think we may even been too far south… so the mean between southern members like OP and the members thinking it rains well up north goes right through us. Looks great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 18z GEFS max snowfall zone goes right through us on that run. The GEFS has been north of the OP for several runs now as there are members that think we may even been too far south… so the mean between southern members like OP and the members thinking it rains well up north goes right through us. Close to a 50/50 shot here...not bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GEFS actually trended slightly south and colder while the GFS OP went the other way. There were quite a few more members at hr 96 south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not feeling this one for most of us S of the pike in SNE. Ive Been on the positive side of things this season as far as feelings go, but after Saturday’s suckage, I’ve kind of had it, and I’m hedging This will be a mostly wet event for us folks S of the pike with this. I’ll Let the modeling going forward confirm my feelings, or prove me wrong on this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 70%+ i'll take that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I mean you can look up the model verification scores for free - the NAVGEM is an UN -GOOD model... It's not designed for this type of land-based meteorology. It is used by the NAVY for NAVY purposes in the high seas and wave-guide. It's not only an UN -GOOD ( fact! ) model, it is also not even being used for the right reason when you attempt to employ it's solutions and then attempt to comparing. Jesus Christ. stop it. Unless you're mentally challenged and don't understand these turns of phrases, that's another story. If that's what's going one, we'll pat your head and tell ya your doing a great job - 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'll take a look at this tomorrow when I go my January review/Feb preview......but like I said, my guess is not much snow south of rt 2 and especially the pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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