Hoth Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All downhill from there. Man, doesn't that just make you think of that blizzard/SWFE on 'roids combo from back in '15? Like 50" in a week in Boston verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Even if there isn't an ice storm, I don't have faith in the power-grid keeping up with demand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Always best to wait for Euro. I waited for the GGEM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I waited for the GGEM. Good, glad to see you coming around finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Even if there isn't an ice storm, I don't have faith in the power-grid keeping up with demand. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 35 minutes ago, dryslot said: No power for days and days with frigid temps would be just wrong. TX last year? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, tamarack said: TX last year? We're still paying for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Ryan being trolled by some of the comments on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Ryan being trolled by some of the comments on twitter like this? he's not exactly wrong, taking the weeklies at face value can be problematic 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 You wonder if the modeling are on the right track with the low level cold push and frigid surface temps , but not warm enough at midlevels. Maybe they snap the midlevel warmth up vs just frigid entire column. We’ll see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 If I was a met making actual forecasts I would avoid the hyperbole about long-range model runs like the weeklies. Very easy to bust. His tweet came across as gently ribbing the weenies and so of course the pitchforks come out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro is more progressive through hour 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Euro is more progressive through hour 57 ya dont think this run will do it for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looks more amped at 54h than 06z. Though the southern stream hanging back in the southwest looks weaker...so it could change in the next few panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 TX last year?A concern, but we are a little more resilient to cold temps than ERCOT (tx). Their nat gas generation and supply fell off line due to cold temps, while we are weatherized however just constrained from a supply perspective (pipeline capacity, competition with heating, etc). Most of our generators are dual fuel which means we can run on oil, making us sensitive financially (running on oil is expensive) but less from a generating capacity and resiliancy side. That speaks nothing to the distribution side of the grid where we suck, but that is different from blackouts and load shedding like ERCOT had to do.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks more amped at 54h than 06z. Though the southern stream hanging back in the southwest looks weaker...so it could change in the next few panels. Uh? It looks more progressive to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Yeah, this is no GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 S/w down south is further east, Could be an offset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 just a wee bit different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Dews? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Dews? dewy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro will nail that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro gonna torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euros not going to get the thermals that wrong this close in. Gfs will lose I think 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 This 12z Euro run is similar to the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1045 high like that to the north that’s in the GFS…I don’t know how this torches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Should have waited for Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 it's not just the thermals, per se - it's the whole evolution of the trough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: 1045 high like that to the north…I don’t know how this torches. Synoptics>surface features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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