IMADreamer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I have never seen model's put out this much snow for my neck of the woods. This is exciting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: and of course 12z RGEM comes north No kidding. Almost looks like the GFS did before last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: and of course 12z RGEM comes north NAM and RGEM will be on the northern edge of guidance until show time, and then will disappoint 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I haven't seen much discussion on lake enhancement/ lake effect for Chicago area. Lake iced over or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, IMADreamer said: I have never seen model's put out this much snow for my neck of the woods. This is exciting. and there hasn't ever been this much snow from a storm before (outside of thin meso bands) around here edit: expect for the record snowstorm in march of (100 years ago?) So I'm reducing the max by 20% in my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, mimillman said: NAM and RGEM will be on the northern edge of guidance until show time, and then will disappoint Euro has been pretty steady over last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I haven't seen much discussion on lake enhancement/ lake effect for Chicago area. Lake iced over or what? There most definitely will be lake enhancement/lake effect. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The northern edge cutoff will be brutal. 12”+ to nothing in about 25 miles. Going to be a fair amount of nowcasting going on regardless of where models continue to lean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Regarding the north shift with the 12z RGEM... The overrunning event was well north, and the main storm system was also north, not surprisingly given the snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: There most definitely will be lake enhancement/lake effect. Seems like a good setup, wondering why we haven't discussed. Evident on that rgem out above tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Regarding the north shift with the 12z RGEM... The overrunning event was well north, and the main storm system was also north, not surprisingly given the snowfall map. Grasping for any model that works for N IL even checked ICON which was way south so it was an easy toss!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: and of course 12z RGEM comes north Beautiful, really helps bring to life the Joe/RC battle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: Beautiful, really helps bring to life the Joe/RC battle Is RC more optimistic then Joe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: Seems like a good setup, wondering why we haven't discussed. Evident on that rgem out above tho @purduewx80made a quick mention a day or so ago. But yes, it is definitely something that will factor in. Lack of discussion likely revolves around the big synoptic potential being more of the eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Obviously mixing will cut down some of these absurd numbers a bit, but still this is a pretty insane to see so close to the event. Just for context, Toledo averages 37" of snow a year & Findlay gets 25". This storm at a likely 3-6" Wednesday and 8-16" on Thursday could drop over half season's worth in 36 hours. Also lets not forget, the backside of this is going to drop air temps into potentially the negative double digits on Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: The northern edge cutoff will be brutal. 12”+ to nothing in about 25 miles. Going to be a fair amount of nowcasting going on regardless of where models continue to lean I bet the initial snow with the developing frontal zone will be somewhat convective. I sharp arctic airmass pushing in will sometimes do that. There may be some banded variability of totals within the bigger swath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Is RC more optimistic then Joe? He is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Obviously mixing will cut down some of these absurd numbers a bit, but still this is a pretty insane to see so close to the event. Just for context, Toledo averages 37" of snow a year & Findlay gets 25". This storm at a likely 3-6" Wednesday and 8-16" on Thursday could drop over half season's worth in 36 hours. Also lets not forget, the backside of this is going to drop air temps into potentially the negative double digits on Friday I'm not convinced precip issues (at least of consequence) will make it as far NW as Toledo and Findlay. They might get occasional sleet mixing in, but unless it's ongoing for an extended period, that doesn't do much to cut down on totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z GFS will have a different orientation to the overrunning event... North some areas, and south in others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS looks like a slight bump north with the early snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: I'm not convinced precip issues (at least of consequence) will make it as far NW as Toledo and Findlay. They might get occasional sleet mixing in, but unless it's ongoing for an extended period, that doesn't do much to cut down on totals. Oh I am on Wednesday for sure. It'll take a second for the front to pass and the column to completely cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: @purduewx80made a quick mention a day or so ago. But yes, it is definitely something that will factor in. Yep, the lake will contribute for sure but almost certainly not to the degree of last Feb's system. If this were lake effect alone, inversion heights are shallow and the boundary layer cloud depths just tap into the DGZ, so it wouldn't be anything wild. Given synoptic support/seeding and a lack of shear in the boundary layer, I think it'll still be an efficient process. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, nwohweather said: Oh I am on Wednesday for sure. It'll take a second for the front to pass and the column to completely cool I'm talking about after Wednesday's changeover occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z GFS going to bump south with the main storm system. Noticeable changes in Canada/Plains/West. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Models really struggling with this setup. Gfs led the way being amped up, now its more on the southern end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Central IL/N Central IN are going to get obliterated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Models really struggling with this setup. Gfs led the way being amped up, now its more on the southern end. Now watch the EURO come in super amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Flying in Friday afternoon to the Detroit area. Nice I am going to be back home to see the aftermath (and brutal cold) of this event. Gives me something fun to model chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 watching the gfs and crying as a northsider 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Now watch the EURO come in super amped. Agree GFS making some slight corrections south. Euro coming slightly north. ICON south. RGEM and NAM coming north. What a battle. Some changes of 30-50 miles makes a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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