NEILwxbo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 While it’ll take a bit more of a significant shift north to get max totals through the metro, it wouldn’t take much to get 12”+ totals north, which would still be a good storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baum said: down time on the board before next model cycle. How bout some entertainment for the Chicago folks: Can start with the SREF. Mean still at 12” for ORD but had stared coming down. Expect this trend to continue throughout the next 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9Z SREF plume mean just over 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Jan 5 2014 for me. Heres to hoping a nw jog within 48 hrs like that one. I really don't see it. This isn't some deep, big low pressure barreling through the Great Lakes region. It's a double wave gulf system with tons of moisture fighting against a strong High pressure of to its west. If anything this is going to go east on future model runs in my opinion. I really think though this is going to be a dangerous situation on Wednesday night into Thursday as that pressure gradient is going to create almost impossible travel conditions with that wind, and you're going to have extremely cold temperatures behind it. I feel very confident in a 10-20" call for NW Ohio though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 These are all valid points. But again. The tweet flat out said don't expect these amounts because of compaction. Again, whenever you see reports of a major lake effect snow event in Marquette or Buffalo or of an East Coast snowstorm they say how much fell. They don't say "but there's actually XX on the ground". A meteorologist or weather enthusiast's understanding of the issue vs. most of the general public's understanding of it are two different things. The amount of snow left by a storm for most people's intents and purposes is gonna be snow depth where they live. For those of us very invested in exactly how much snow falls in our backyards, it's a different consideration. For this particular event, it appears likely there's going to be a meaningful gap in the heaviest snow rates, assuming part 2 makes it far enough north. That gap is important to the overall impacts, such as for snow removal, and will result in settled snow being less than what's measured via 6 hour board clearing. I understand the point my coworker was trying to make but I wouldn't have made it because the varying level of weather aptitude among followers. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, nwohweather said: I really don't see it. This isn't some deep, big low pressure barreling through the Great Lakes region. It's a double wave gulf system with tons of moisture fighting against a strong High pressure of to its west. If anything this is going to go east on future model runs in my opinion. I really think though this is going to be a dangerous situation on Wednesday night into Thursday as that pressure gradient is going to create almost impossible travel conditions with that wind, and you're going to have extremely cold temperatures behind it. I feel very confident in a 10-20" call for NW Ohio though The jan 5 2014 wasnt a big low pressure barreling. If I remember correctly I think it was a weak low pressure system that phased with the PV. I think last nights runs were about as far north this thing will drop the big snows. Unless the shortwave coming into the sw is being modeled poorly on its strength. Toledo looks good back towards N ind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, nwohweather said: I really don't see it. This isn't some deep, big low pressure barreling through the Great Lakes region. It's a double wave gulf system with tons of moisture fighting against a strong High pressure of to its west. If anything this is going to go east on future model runs in my opinion. I really think though this is going to be a dangerous situation on Wednesday night into Thursday as that pressure gradient is going to create almost impossible travel conditions with that wind, and you're going to have extremely cold temperatures behind it. I feel very confident in a 10-20" call for NW Ohio though I don't think you're remembering Jan 4-6, 2014 correctly. See below to review the surface/mid/upper level maps. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Can start with the SREF. Mean still at 12” for ORD but had stared coming down. Expect this trend to continue throughout the next 24 hours. To be honest at this point yesterday we were not even in the game per the GEM, EURO, and NAM. If you were anticipating a 2' snowstorm you were always going to be dissapointed. From what I can tell the GFS and Euro have sort of settled on a track that will split the metro. So your call of 4-8" looks reasonable and basically fits what LOT has out. Plenty of wildcards still in play track of main event, lake enhancement, exact placement of frontal band(which many times ends up different than modeled). Bottom line, it's a fun event to track and it sure seems like a good percentage of this forum will see a significant event over a 3 day period. So all is good. Enjoy the chase, as they say. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Baum said: To be honest at this point yesterday we were not even in the game per the GEM, EURO, and NAM. If you were anticipating a 2' snowstorm you were always going to be dissapointed. From what I can tell the GFS and Euro have sort of settled on a track that will split the metro. So your call of 4-8" looks reasonable and basically fits what LOT has out. Plenty of wildcards still in play track of main event, lake enhancement, exact placement of frontal band(which many times ends up different than modeled). Bottom line, it's a fun event to track and it sure seems like a good percentage of this forum will see a significant event over a 3 day period. So all is good. Enjoy the chase, as they say. Still, it is unfortunate that we got several runs (that seemed to be consistent at first) with those insane amounts setting up further NW. Now some people will be disappointed over getting what will still be a big snowstorm (just not epic/crippling/historic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 toss 'em deep , watching for that northern fringe weenie band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Still, it is unfortunate that we got several runs (that seemed to be consistent at first) with those insane amounts setting up further NW. Now some people will be disappointed over getting what will still be a big snwostorm (just not epic/historic). Chicago had never been modeled for such. And it still looks like in excess of 20" is on the table for those that catch both portions of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Still, it is unfortunate that we got several runs (that seemed to be consistent at first) with those insane amounts setting up further NW. Now some people will be disappointed over getting what will still be a big snwostorm (just not epic/historic). Still too early in my opinion to say someone right outside maybe 100 miles cant cash in. GFS was terrible for that Boston blizzard 2 days before so this can still jog north or south some based on more sampling etc so these later runs and into Wed AM will be interesting. Plus for Chi metro lake enhancement will also be an unknown variable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baum said: Chicago had never been modeled for such. And it still looks like in excess of 20" is on the table for those that catch both portions of the event. Besides the band seemingly starting to consolidate south of GFS/NAM/SREF had it, the amounts have been slowly coming down too. So I wouldn't even say 20"+ totals are a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: A meteorologist or weather enthusiast's understanding of the issue vs. most of the general public's understanding of it are two different things. The amount of snow left by a storm for most people's intents and purposes is gonna be snow depth where they live. For those of us very invested in exactly how much snow falls in our backyards, it's a different consideration. For this particular event, it appears likely there's going to be a meaningful gap in the heaviest snow rates, assuming part 2 makes it far enough north. That gap is important to the overall impacts, such as for snow removal, and will result in settled snow being less than what's measured via 6 hour board clearing. I understand the point my coworker was trying to make but I wouldn't have made it because the varying level of weather aptitude among followers. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk All good points. Again I'm agreeing with you, just disagreeing with the tweet. I will say this though about John Q Public. They don't exactly do the best job with measuring snow in the 1st place lol. Some of them inflate the drifts and others come up with the number so low I feel like they're measuring on the freeway median. It seems like NWSs in this area try to weed out those reports but I have read some of the pns from the East Coast storms and they include them all and even their own posters admit some of them are BS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: Still, it is unfortunate that we got several runs (that seemed to be consistent at first) with those insane amounts setting up further NW. Now some people will be disappointed over getting what will still be a big snowstorm (just not epic/crippling/historic). That is the problem. Watching model run after model run have 16-24" IMBY then get 12" is not as gratifying as model runs showing 4-8" then getting 12". Same results but for some reason scenario #2 is so much better 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Besides the band seemingky starting to consolidate south of GFS had it, the amounts have been slowly coming down too. So I wouldn't even say 20"+ totals are a lock. nothings ever a lock. It's weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Besides the band seemingly starting to consolidate south of GFS/NAM/SREF had it, the amounts have been slowly coming down too. So I wouldn't even say 20"+ totals are a lock. Still some monsters on the ensembles. As always 12z will be a big cycle today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Nothing like a good 0-25" spread on the plumes for ORD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Cleveland and Buffalo have held off watches, I wonder if they add them this afternoon. Same for EC. Locally the weather network and a few news stations are starting to say 8-16" over 48 hours is becoming possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: 9Z SREF plume mean just over 11" Looks like 10-20” incoming for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Nothing like a good 0-25" spread on the plumes for ORD A cluster at 5-10” and a cluster at 15-20”. The 5-10” cluster seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: A cluster at 5-10” and a cluster at 15-20”. The 5-10” cluster seems reasonable. It'll compact down to 3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, Lightning said: That is the problem. Watching model run after model run have 16-24" IMBY then get 12" is not as gratifying as model runs showing 4-8" then getting 12". Same results but for some reason scenario #2 is so much better Which is why I definitely have a love hate relationship with models 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 A cluster at 5-10” and a cluster at 15-20”. The 5-10” cluster seems reasonable.under.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z NAM will either bump south with the overrunning event or have a slightly different orientation.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: under. . Eh, 5” for ORD is still doable, although it’ll be unimpressive over 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Cleveland and Buffalo have held off watches, I wonder if they add them this afternoon. Same for EC. Locally the weather network and a few news stations are starting to say 8-16" over 48 hours is becoming possible. I'm a bit concerned about the southeast trend on a couple of the models, though, including the GFS and the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Waiting for the high res stuff to decide to come back north later today just to really jerk those of us riding the northern edge 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: I'm a bit concerned about the southeast trend on a couple of the models, though, including the GFS and the Canadian. Ya, weirdly im concerned about both. Wednesday has trended a bit warmer down here in the Hamilton-Niagara region. It will take a thread the needle event for 12" but im enjoying the tracking. I may be wrong but I think YYZ has 4-6" of new snow coming this week all but locked up. Issue for me is it just a winter weather travel advisory for 2-3" of slop Wednesday followed by 2-3" of powder Thursday. Should also mention I enjoy retaining snow packs haha. So we went from thinking this week would bring first 50s to the region in a while and obliterate the snow pack to upper 30s Tuesday, some light rain to begin followed by more snow. This should help create a glacier that will become tougher to melt in the coming days/weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, mimillman said: Eh, 5” for ORD is still doable, although it’ll be unimpressive over 48 hours Under call. 10 still very much doable imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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