NEILwxbo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro with a slight bump NW with the early overrunning snows compared to 18z Looks wetter too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro with a slight bump NW with the early overrunning snows compared to 18z That's just great. I may as well root for all rain atp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Wetter than the 18Z run but not as crazy as the 12Z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro actually cut the highest snow amounts compared to 12z run. It's all relative though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, snowman33 said: If my memory serves me correctly, the central axis of the heaviest snow was modelled to run through Valparaiso and South Bend on the globals. Then the hi-res models latched onto the north shift. Considerable shift! Makes me wonder why we haven’t invested into a better “long range” solution? Heck, 48-72hrs isn’t asking much. Pretty sad we can’t determine within a 100 radius, whether your going to see 2ft of snow, or 1” of ice… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Euro actually cut the highest snow amounts compared to 12z run. It's all relative though. We're starting to get into the run to run noise for exact totals phase, gonna be interesting to see the ensembles though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I think we're gonna have a great idea Wednesday morning if we're going to have a big storm or something truly epic, because we will have seen how the initial band has been performing. RC laid out the favorable factors for heavy snow with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 For this area nice to see some bumps northward with today's runs. After yesterday's big shift south getting a few inches of fresh powder out of this would feel like a win. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3z plumes jumped again Mean of 13” at ORD with a cluster in the 4-10” range and then another cluster in the 13-18” range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GRR winter storm watch issued, calling for 8-12 for now, DTX with a similar watch calling for 8-14 meanwhile the 06Z NAM is even more juiced 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6Z NAM north. Great improvement for N Illinois and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 What a run. And it’s snowing all the way back to the plains associated with the main ejecting wave which is across the TX PH at 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, vortex said: 6Z NAM north. Great improvement for N Illinois and Chicago. 2 feet here and still ripping at the end of the run. 30" would def be in reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 IWX with a very scary worded watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The Nam is worthless trash.. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: The Nam is worthless trash.. Nam almost always over amped in long range. Just saw it with east coast storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Can't recall see a IWX Watch worded like that. Curious if we'll see our first Blizzard Watches in a over a decade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Frog Town said: Can't recall see a IWX Watch worded like that. Curious if we'll see our first Blizzard Watches in a over a decade... Blizzard Watches were killed off during the first round of hazard simplification, now they go from Winter Storm Watch to Blizzard Warning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nam almost always over amped in long range. Just saw it with east coast storm. It has Indy all rain and NW Ohio mostly rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, chuckster2012 said: It has Indy all rain and NW Ohio mostly rain! Obviously nws isn't buying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 06Z GFS is shockingly different than the 0Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 If your morning's going good and you want to keep it that way, don't look at the 6z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 06Z GFS ensembles don't have as massive a difference as the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 06Z GFS ensembles don't have as massive a difference as the operational Could be a hiccup run. And, actually, for SE mi and back east to over here, it's still a pretty good storm because of the overrunning. Just not the crushing amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Ensembles look almost the same as 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Call looking $$$, feel for the nw burbs crew looking at another razor miss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ridin the NAM until I see a better model for my back yard next cycle 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Initial Watch boxes issued with overnight AFD packages. Northward expansion in the cards?? Edit to add: This is the first Watch I've been under since I can't remember when. My former office (GRR) didn't issue one for last Feb's storm. Looking back at my records, nothing worthy of more than a WWA from them, until I reach the Feb 2018 over-running event. That would be the best candidate for a Watch issuance. If not then, Dec of 2016 I do remember we got a Watch for that storm. So, 4 years at least, maybe more, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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