Brian D Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 34 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: As someone that has been following lake Erie ice for 15 yrs those maps were wrong. That's not clear ice as evident by the slush on the edges of the real ice sheets. The 2 days later image is because both of those nights had negative lows. Once the freezing process starts it freezes rapidly. However, that above image is not "clear" ice, its water temp at 32 and at beginning stages of icing. Never use maps for lake ice, always use satellite images. Many have used those ice maps in forecasting lake effect snow events and have been quite wrong due to their inaccuracy. For example, last February NWS had no watches/warnings due to maps showing 85% ice coverage. 3' later and they corrected themselves. For Example Yeah, the ice movement early season, with new forming fast. I looked at vis for 28th, and there is ice in the area ice map shows (with what little is visible), so the other issue is, are daily maps for prior day ice? Because its sure starting to seem that way. They would have a full suite of data for the prior day, then they list it as that day when they do their work ups? Ice moves, and forms fast here too. So until it becomes high percentage, hard too tell. And just one open patch can allow for LES. See that here, too. If I would have caught their 30th ice maps, probably would have had that big opening. Something to track day by day to see how that goes, but early ice season is a fast changing season, and a snapshot of a very fluid situation doesn't tell the whole story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Brian D said: Yeah, the ice movement early season, with new forming fast. I looked at vis for 28th, and there is ice in the area ice map shows (with what little is visible), so the other issue is, are daily maps for prior day ice? Because its sure starting to seem that way. They would have a full suite of data for the prior day, then they list it as that day when they do their work ups? Ice moves, and forms fast here too. So until it becomes high percentage, hard too tell. And just one open patch can allow for LES. See that here, too. If I would have caught their 30th ice maps, probably would have had that big opening. Something to track day by day to see how that goes, but early ice season is a fast changing season, and a snapshot of a very fluid situation doesn't tell the whole story. Like you said its a very fluid situation. It changes daily. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Like you said its a very fluid situation. It changes daily. Back in the 90's, Mn made a new law that requires anyone needing rescue from lake superior ice will be charged for the expense of having to rescue them. Too many times, people were going to far out, and not paying attention. Now, hardly ever do we have a situation like that here. Folks bring rafts, or kayaks, canoes, etc just in case. Ice fishing is a big deal when the ice forms, mainly down in Duluth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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