Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, mimillman said: Call me a weenie, but the NAM and HRRR are initializing too far south with this rain band so you're saying you want the HRRR (And RAP) to be right, kind of like they were with clipper #2 in the trio (Jan 22-23rd). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Guidance really making Matty sweat about not flying home #toofar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Same with me and powerball lolol. There's still the red eye, if things suddenly trend to the unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: Spread on plumes at ORD is pretty solid 10-15” Wonderful to see that. On the plane now heading to Chicago. Those other members waiting to buy their tickets to come up north to get on this action, lets go. I feel better today for Chicago then I did yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Will say the Canadian HP looks a couple millibars weaker & southeast HP looks a couple millibars stronger than what zero-hour RAP shows. Ultimate weenie comment, sure, but so it goes... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=20 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Every member on the 15z SREF is above 10" for GYY, with a big cluster between 14-21" or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Powerball said: There's still the red eye, if things suddenly trend to the unlikely. 75k skymiles to catch the 6pm out of rsw lol. For a comparison, it was only 4k to fly home a few weeks ago for family stuff. I think im gonna pass and trust that it'll be another storm disappointment. Edit 112k now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This is the stage of the storm where everyone on the edge of the main snow band exudes hope. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: 75k skymiles to catch the 6pm out of rsw lol. For a comparison, it was only 4k to fly home a few weeks ago for family stuff. I think im gonna pass and trust that it'll be another storm disappointment. Edit 112k now. Ah, I see. I would be flying out of DFW (can choose either American or Delta), so it wouldn't be a problem for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 y break up the threads though 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, fluoronium said: y break up the threads though we've been doing that around here since the olden days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, fluoronium said: y break up the threads though yeah hate it, makes bump trolling calls and posts difficult 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Powerball said: Ah, I see. I would be flying out of DFW (can choose either American or Delta), so it wouldn't be a problem for me. U got an hour or so to make a decision lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Powerball said: Ah, I see. I would be flying out of DFW (can choose either American or Delta), so it wouldn't be a problem for me. I mean it's going to be a good storm regardless. Do the extra few inches really make or break lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: This was terrible luck last time just saying 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: U got an hour or so to make a decision lol. Unless that 12z GFS run from 1/29 miraculously comes back, I'm good. I already have my hotel room booked in case of a power outage here with the ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: This was terrible luck last time just saying It's worked in the past with prior GHD storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: You look to the warm side of the maximized f-gen to where you would get the most intense mesoscale bands. This is one of the more challenging aspects of winter forecasting. But with consistent northern position of H7 front and f-gen and large separation from H8, I'm leaning toward there being a strong f-gen band positioned not far distance wise from the northwest edge of the precip field. The presence of strong fgen also tends to sharpen this gradient, so it might not end up too far between warning level snow amounts to much lower amounts to little if any snow. The hope for areas consistently right on the northwest fringe is that the dry air influence is being overdone a bit, allowing large scale (jet entrance region) and mesoscale (f-gen and low stability to unstable conditions in the DGZ) to overcome the dryness. Thank you. So I'm guessing that on the northwest end the dry layer that needs to saturate will be mostly between 850 and 700. The lakes should help keep it moist below 850. I noticed last year on the northern fringe of storms there was this big jump in totals going from the east to the west side of Lake Michigan. It wasn't necessarily classical lake enhancement either, just quicker onset due to virga reduction. You could even see it in the radar data aloft. In this case it definitely helps starting out on the warm side of the front as the incoming low-level arctic layer has to interact with the lakes more on the way in as the warm sector boundary layer is pushed out. The caveat is a low inversion height will allow a dry layer above 5000 feet to impede some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18Z Canadian starting to come back NW Come on baby! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's worked in the past with prior GHD storms though. i think he meant me making the thread. when i made part 2, things faded up here. obviously many other events have had plenty of part # threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 surprised how hard it's raining here. Immediately thinks: "I'm losing my snow qpf to rain" or "models underestimated the moisture influx and the dry air will lose the battle in my back yard." 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 yeah, soaker confirmed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Let's all go to the new thread now: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56747-feb-1-3rd-ghd-iii-part-3/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Baum said: surprised how hard it's raining here. Immediately thinks: "I'm losing my snow qpf to rain" or "models underestimated the moisture influx and the dry air will lose the battle in my back yard." I'm surprised no one has speculated (another oldie for goodie) whether it will be hard for the snow to accumulate at first because of the wet ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: I'm surprised no one has speculated (another oldie for goodie) whether it will be hard for the snow to accumulate at first because of the wet ground. It's not fall though. It's been below freezing for weeks. The ground is frozen solid most places. Existing puddles will only make it more icy when the changeover happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 56 minutes ago, Owensnow said: 18Z Canadian starting to come back NW Come on baby! I just want in more on Wave #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 8:27 AM, nwohweather said: I really don't see it. This isn't some deep, big low pressure barreling through the Great Lakes region. It's a double wave gulf system with tons of moisture fighting against a strong High pressure of to its west. If anything this is going to go east on future model runs in my opinion. I really think though this is going to be a dangerous situation on Wednesday night into Thursday as that pressure gradient is going to create almost impossible travel conditions with that wind, and you're going to have extremely cold temperatures behind it. I feel very confident in a 10-20" call for NW Ohio though I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 11:34 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Those ice maps are never accurate, better to use satellite imagery. The far southtowns of Buffalo received over 3 feet of snow from an event in which the lake was 85% covered last year. So lake effect potential is definitely still there. Can get evaporation between the cracks in the ice. Looks like the ice maps were right. The above image on Jan 29 looks like open water, but it isn't. It's new, clear ice. Two days later after some light snow on Jan 30, this is what you see on Jan 31. They have radar sat to see what vis sat can't. They aren't perfect, but not that far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 53 minutes ago, Brian D said: Looks like the ice maps were right. The above image on Jan 29 looks like open water, but it isn't. It's new, clear ice. Two days later after some light snow on Jan 30, this is what you see on Jan 31. They have radar sat to see what vis sat can't. They aren't perfect, but not that far off. As someone that has been following lake Erie ice for 15 yrs those maps were wrong. That's not clear ice as evident by the slush on the edges of the real ice sheets. The 2 days later image is because both of those nights had negative lows. Once the freezing process starts it freezes rapidly. However, that above image is not "clear" ice, its water temp at 32 and at beginning stages of icing. Never use maps for lake ice, always use satellite images. Many have used those ice maps in forecasting lake effect snow events and have been quite wrong due to their inaccuracy. For example, last February NWS had no watches/warnings due to maps showing 85% ice coverage. 3' later and they corrected themselves. For Example 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts