michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It's been below freezing for so long that today feels gross out. I hate seeing snow melt even tho a storm is coming. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Getting dryer/less snow with each run in the heaviest bands in illinois and indiana too. A lot of that has to do with less overlapping with both main rounds as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: It's basically nowcast time, in terms of position of key features, with the short range/high resolution guidance used as a tool. You can check obs and radar vs the hourly RAP/HRRR runs. Can also check the short range forecasts of the globals vs obs and radar to have an idea which one has a more correct trend for tonight. SPC mesoanalysis will be a good place to check the position of maximum low and mid level f-gen. For the gradient area in Northern Illinois, frontal timing and position, how quickly the dry HP is building, and positioning of the surface frontal trough post fro-pa are all very important to whether we over or underperform. This is in addition to radar trends for mesoscale banding position and orientation. Do you have any thoughts on the lake enhancement potential in the area? I don't want to say the parameters are God awful the whole time, but... lol Inversion height get pretty shallow at times, like 4k feet with considerable drying just above. Sufficient delta T up to that level though. Seems like the most aggressive guidance may be overdone. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: DTX upgraded to warning for 11-15". Must be hinging on the RGEM because no other model solutions have any more than about 1 inch of QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Thanks. I will say this about DTX warning, they still talk about Thursday. Which is really looking more like a graze job of light snow. This is all gonna be about tomorrow and it's gonna come down to the ratios. Pretty solid model agreement, give or take some noise, on about 1.20" qpf with about an inch falling as snow. Temperatures will be steadily dropping as the storm progresses. My warning ends at 7AM Thursday so they at least are including it in my warning (now we need a north trend ). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looks like the rest of the day will be spent comparing the zero-hour observed SLP charts with the zero-hour 'forecast' charts from the RAP on the SPC mesoanalysis pages, latching on to every pixel looking for a northward trend... Horrendous (and yet somewhat fond) memories of doing this same thing years ago, only to find out (surprise surprise) the most-realistic weather models were right all along 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: A lot of that has to do with less overlapping with both main rounds as well. Yes indeed. Mentioned that last night. This isn't really a case of the models simply being too wet just because. The evolution of key features changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 KIND has slowed the onset of liquid here by 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Glitch in the matrix 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 looks like the 18Z RAP may be doing the best with the current rain band? it adjusted a hair ( a few miles) NW and slightly increased precip amounts overnight thru 07Z compared with 15Z from UIN to PIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ready 2 b disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Owensnow said: Must be hinging on the RGEM because no other model solutions have any more than about 1 inch of QPF You can still easily get 11-15 on 1" qpf. It's basically now cast time. I had 1.08" on 16.5" Feb 1/2, 2015 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: So you're saying you werent buying to 30+ kuchera amounts the gfs was spittin out like 48 hrs ago? Well anything is possible, but how likely was it really for a 125-year storm to occur, especially with a synoptic mess of a system? Plus, since we've all been tracking weather, how often have we seen storms unravel (slowly or rapidly) before their onset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 23 hours ago, Powerball said: I'm just waiting for the "nowcasting time!" posts. 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: You can still easily get 11-15 on 1" qpf. It's basically now cast time. I had 1.08" on 16.5" Feb 1/2, 2015 @Baum There it is! Just like old times. (just messing with you michsnowfreak) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: Well anything is possible, but how likely was it really for a 125-year storm to occur, especially with a synoptic mess of a system? Plus, since we've all been tracking weather, how often have we seen storms unravel (slowly or rapidly) before their onset? Hoosier did bring up a good point though. It's not so much that the unanimous drying of the models was to be expected. I mean yes 30+ totals were unrealistic. But the fact that each wave is going to primarily hit different areas with just a little bit of overlap is why this is turning into more of a widespread big snowstorm instead of a more narrow corridor of historic snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Well anything is possible, but how likely was it really for a 125-year storm to occur, especially with a synoptic mess of a system? Plus, since we've all been tracking weather, how often have we seen storms unravel (slowly or rapidly) before their onset? Well the two part of it made up the the messy low pressure main show. Either way its a bummer for us and areas to our sw that looked prime for 20+. Thats been the trend recently, weaker/se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Hoosier did bring up a good point though. It's not so much that the unanimous drying of the models was to be expected. I mean yes 30+ totals were unrealistic. But the fact that each wave is going to primarily hit different areas with just a little bit of overlap is why this is turning into more of a widespread big snowstorm instead of a more narrow corridor of historic snowstorm. Bingo!! While historic would be wonderful there is a reason they are historic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Lightning said: Bingo!! While historic would be wonderful there is a reason they are historic. Everyone talks about 78...I'd love to see what model qpf output would be in a 1974 storm scenario. Far more compact but a death band from TOL into SE MI. Probably kuchera totals near 48-50" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: You can still easily get 11-15 on 1" qpf. It's basically now cast time. I had 1.08" on 16.5" Feb 1/2, 2015 They are advertising 12 to 1 ratio is at the office 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Well the two part of it made up the the messy low pressure main show. Either way its a bummer for us and areas to our sw that looked prime for 20+. Thats been the trend recently, weaker/se. Exactly. Wave 1 looks great!! Wave 2 without a NW trend is almost out of the picture for SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Hoosier did bring up a good point though. It's not so much that the unanimous drying of the models was to be expected. I mean yes 30+ totals were unrealistic. But the fact that each wave is going to primarily hit different areas with just a little bit of overlap is why this is turning into more of a widespread big snowstorm instead of a more narrow corridor of historic snowstorm. I saw that post But even if all of the upper level ingredients did come together, there was in all likelihood going to be issues on a mesoscale level that the global models wouldn't pick up on until we were near the onset that would prevent such an extreme outcome (such as moisture transport being disrupted, wake subsidence from each of the subtle shortwaves, and the best area of forcing being a lot more narrow/transitory, etc.). I mean, the idea (according to the late last week / weekend model runs) was there would be a 1000-mile long conveyor belt of moderate/heavy snow over 100 miles in width that lasted 36 hours in any one location. It seems too good to be true when I put it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Owensnow said: They are advertising 12 to 1 ratio is at the office I would expect it will start 10:1 (once it is snow that is) and end around 18:1 as the cold get more entrenched. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Glitch in the matrix Just a 25 mile shift SE...even 15 or 20...to take me out of the .25/.5 inches of ice. I will take the snow...no to ice and then snow with wind(power outages). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It's beautiful outside now. Most of my best storms in recent years have started with anomalously warm temps the day before the main event. HRRR is suggesting some heavy banding further west in central IL. Peoria area posters would like this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18Z HRRR has really increased total precip amounts from UIN to PIA with the first event when compared with 12z but for some reason it doesn't continue NE from PIA 1.06 to 1.59 at PIA due to a slightly more NW placement of an intense band and has 20 inches right over the city 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 NWS Indy leaning in pretty hard on their conference talking about widespread disruptions and possible power outages and structural damage due to the weight of the snow and leaning heavily into the idea that this will at least be a top 25 storm for Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 radar would be hot if we were snow now, wasting some solid qpf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, fluoronium said: It's beautiful outside now. Most of my best storms in recent years have started with anomalously warm temps the day before the main event. HRRR is suggesting some heavy banding further west in central IL. Peoria area posters would like this scenario. Also showing impressive banding just to my west with 20 inch totals in northern Porter and LaPorte. 20 inches may not be realistic...but a good indication someone will get buried under good banding. Edit: Might be some lake enhancement there, too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, Powerball said: Well anything is possible, but how likely was it really for a 125-year storm to occur, especially with a synoptic mess of a system? Plus, since we've all been tracking weather, how often have we seen storms unravel (slowly or rapidly) before their onset? We've been getting 100-year floods more frequently and winter storms have also gone up in precipitable values. Statistically speaking, probably no longer once-a-125-year event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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