Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I sure hope the ice totals on the far south edge are way overdone. I wouldn't wish 2 inches of FZ on anyone. Those totals could be pretty devastating across 8 states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ILX put out a 1 amd 2 day snowfall record graphic. I'm going with 14-17" so both are likely safe for Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Already picked up 0.2in of rain this morning. Temps holding steady at 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z nam still a decent hit here with 1st wave but it ends it early compared to other guidance. Nam also misses my area with 2nd wave which honestly wouldn't shock me. Hrrr/rap are being consistently more aggressive with 1st wave lasing longer here and also getting me more into 2nd wave. Million dollar question is would you trust it? I'm definitely skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 12z nam still a decent hit here with 1st wave but it ends it early compared to other guidance. Nam also misses my area with 2nd wave which honestly wouldn't shock me. Hrrr/rap are being consistently more aggressive with 1st wave lasing longer here and also getting me more into 2nd wave. Million dollar question is would you trust it? I'm definitely skeptical. Looks like the 15z RAP has an intense band right up the river valley overnight into the morning over the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I've been so busy focusing on my backyard but I just compared the GFS and GEM and those are absolutely incredible differences for snow amounts in Southern Ohio, Indiana and eastward for only being a few days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So ready for FlurryFest. I hope the flakes are really tiny. Good luck to those on the cusp of a dog. Hope everything works out and this thing delivers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 59 minutes ago, Owensnow said: Check your plumes Sounds like something my urologist would tell me 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: I sure hope the ice totals on the far south edge are way overdone. I wouldn't wish 2 inches of FZ on anyone. Those totals could be pretty devastating across 8 states. Yeah I have not really looked in at the Tennessee Valley forum, but this has all the hallmarks of a crippling ice event along the Mississippi & Ohio Rivers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 57 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: FTR, I'm riding the GFS and RAP to a disappointing 0.2". Only call 1.0" Just enough to know somebody somewhere else got a h** of lot more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Sounds like something my urologist would tell meShouldn't have been drinking from my soda can when I read this...Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 LOT really no changes except to incorporate Dupage and Kendall counties into main warning areas as opposed to separated out prior. Realize this all cosmetic and only matters to those in Chicago. Key message: no changes to thinking, i guess. Gonna be nip and tuck. If Alek pulls 10" out of his butt crack on this from 72 hours out it maybe an all timer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I've been so busy focusing on my backyard but I just compared the GFS and GEM and those are absolutely incredible differences for snow amounts in Southern Ohio, Indiana and eastward for only being a few days out Pretty good model consensus right now. The NAM, GFS, EURO, GEM..... all put the exact same QPF output down for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 right now my winter storm warning is until 00z Friday I suspect after 00z or 06z Thursday it may get downgraded to a winter weather advisory for another 1-2 inches and some blowing and drifting interesting dilemma for ILX for the NW zones for part 2 keep the warning all the way or downgrade for the later parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: Looks like the 15z RAP has an intense band right up the river valley overnight into the morning over the city Hoping that isn't just a tease. Hrrr/rap are good at luring you in then tear out your heart strings. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Hoping that isn't just a tease. Hrrr/rap are good at luring you in then tear out your heart strings. Lol ILX cut snowfall totals in latest winter weather statement from 8-16 to 7-15 area wide since the 3am one I suspect its because of the more SE 2nd system and less overlap with the first band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Temp is up to 45 here. I think we were forecast to be at 43 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said: ILX cut snowfall totals in latest winter weather statement from 8-16 to 7-15 area wide since the 3am one I suspect its because of the more SE 2nd system and less overlap with the first band Yeah the 2nd wave seems to be trending more and more se. We pretty much get everything from 1st wave. I was reading where some warmer air aloft could impact ratios though. I think LOT mentioned it. Curious if that will impact these big totals models are putting out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I've been so busy focusing on my backyard but I just compared the GFS and GEM and those are absolutely incredible differences for snow amounts in Southern Ohio, Indiana and eastward for only being a few days out Looks like the GFS has a stronger upper trough over Hudson bay reinforcing the southerly cold air push suppressing the surface wave. GDPS has that trough weaker and flatter allowing the surface wave to hook a little longer before shunting east. Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Anecdotally, I don't trust this system not to mix all the way up to at least Akron, OH, which the Canadian/RGEM insist on. And maybe the Canadian models are doing better with the PV over Canada. That's my analysis for the day But for real, I think how the PV interacts with the storm is quite important here for wave 2. With a jet streak to the north providing plenty of divergence aloft and with the precip largely being driven by warm air advection processes...to go along with what should be a lot of latent heat release from convection in the Gulf Coast states and from the anomalously high PWATs getting wrung out as the moisture gets lifted over the front, I feel like if the PV doesn't press down more there is room for last second northwest bumps with the wave on Thursday. If the PV presses down more it will overwhelm these processes, but if it holds steady or backs off slightly I'd expect a bump back NW. Can argue we've stopped the trend of the PV pressing down more in recent runs at the least. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, Baum said: LOT really no changes except to incorporate Dupage and Kendall counties into main warning areas as opposed to separated out prior. Realize this all cosmetic and only matters to those in Chicago. Key message: no changes to thinking, i guess. Gonna be nip and tuck. If Alek pulls 10" out of his butt crack on this from 72 hours out it maybe an all timer. Northern fgen weenie band and lake will bring me to the promised land 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: KIND mets tired? lol .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 259 AM EST Tue Feb 1 2022 Dry but cold weather will follow Friday into early next week. Temperatures should stay below normal with little if any snow. I noticed that. lol It's like nobody cares what happens after Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, TheRegionRat said: SREF Plume mean at GYY is 15 inches. I don't know if these are very accurate, but that's as high a total as I can recall. It's in line with the NAM and HRRR. 3z run was actually over 17" Large cluster of ~14-20" on the 9z run that you mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ILX late morning update UPDATE... Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022 No significant adjustments needed with the morning update in terms of precipitation amounts and timing for the winter storm event. We did coordinate an update to the headline to transition Edgar and Clark counties from a watch to a winter storm warning. Adjacent Indiana counties to the east also upgraded to a warning with this mornings forecast update. As for current weather conditions, we are seeing a corridor of rain showers developing from SW to NE across central IL. The precip is developing in a shallow saturated lower level cloud layer. Therefore rainfall amounts will remain on the light side today. Deeper moisture and UVVs will arrive later this afternoon and this evening, as the cold front progresses from NW to SE across the area. By 6 pm, the cold front should have progressed to a line from Champaign to Taylorville, just east of I-55. Low level cold air behind the front will change the rain to snow soonest across our NW counties, west of the Illinois River. That transition zone will shift to the SE with time tonight, reaching just north of I-70 by 6 am Wednesday. A freezing rain/sleet transition zone will occur during the change-over from rain to snow. Where that zone stalls out later tonight and Wednesday will be where the higher potential of icing and sleet will occur, roughly between I-70 and I-72. Snowfall amounts tonight could reach up to 2-4" for our northern counties, with travel impacts likely for the Wed morning commute as far south as a line from Paris to Mattoon to Taylorville. Further updates to this winter storm forecast will come toward mid-afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12Z RGEM is better for DTW and Myself here at XHA. 10-16 inches verbatim @ 12:1 or more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Owensnow said: 12Z RGEM is better for DTW and Myself here at XHA. 10-16 inches verbatim @ 12:1 or more Man what couldve been if the second part/main wave could amplify a bit and come nw, it could've been a historic storm for dtw. Maybe it still can, who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Stevo6899 said: Man what couldve been if the second part/main wave could amplify a bit and come nw, it could've been a historic storm for dtw. Maybe it still can, who knows. Agreed Here is hoping, perhaps todays high temps will reposition the eventual boundary? Cheers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Owensnow said: Agreed Here is hoping, perhaps todays high temps will reposition the eventual boundary? Cheers You wouldn't necessarily want to focus on whether high temps are warmer than expected, but rather if the actual boundary is lagging behind. It's very common for temps to exceed expectations in a warm sector. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 We are certainly over performing on temps here. 45 downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 50 on the bank clock no doubt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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