Malacka11 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It really looks like a lot of energy is left untapped at the end of the main storm. Can't wait to see the energy in here when we finally get the real death star run in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z GEM bumped north with the overrunning event for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: I have to imagine those Ohio numbers near the shore are, at least somewhat, lake enhanced. It would even more crazy if it were 100% synoptic. Lake Erie is pretty much frozen now (at least the western half) so there shouldn't be much, if any enhancement. Not sure if the GFS knows that or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: I haven't decided yet. Its been chilly, in the 50s here in fort myers past few days. Gonna be in the 80s n sunny all week so its gonna have to be a lil more north tomorrow for me to leave lol. I forget, you're in dallas? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Its been chilly, in the 50s here in fort myers past few days. Gonna be in the 80s n sunny all week so its gonna have to be a lil more north tomorrow for me to leave lol. Meanwhile here, I'm going to be dealing with a significant ice storm that will likely knock out power. That said, plane tickets ain't cheap, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The surface low isn't that strong therefore the winds will be rather only moderate This may mean the final total may closer to the Kuchera then if we have 50+ MPH wind gusts tearing the dendrites apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEM bumped north with the overrunning event for most areas. Looks like the main system bumped north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 This thread is COOKIN’! Forgot what that is like. The trend is our friend in Chicagoland. This all feels so familiar, love this sh*t even if we don’t jackpot. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like the main system bumped north as well. Not surprising it was still pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Feeling the same way in Columbus right now Hate it to end up being like the ice storm that New England and parts of Eastern Canada endured in January 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 00z GEFS similar look to the operational. Once again, awesome if verifies, but concerned we didn’t see more of a bump north. We likely trend to a consensus from here which favors north central Indiana and NW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Would be curious to go back and look at the NAM/GFS runs ~3 days prior to GHD I and II 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, mimillman said: 00z GEFS similar look to the operational. Once again, awesome if verifies, but concerned we didn’t see more of a bump north. We likely trend to a consensus from here which favors north central Indiana and NW Ohio. As stated earlier, theres so many moving pieces to this, some still offshore, so a bump more north is possible, or south. Its anyones guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Would be curious to go back and look at the NAM/GFS runs ~3 days prior to GHD I and II NAM was very amped for GHD I, GFS was solid IIRC I want to say both were south for GHD II and baby stepped slowly north. Euro led the way with that one. Speaking from a Chi metro standpoint, that area was in the bullseye fairly early and for much of the time with GHD I while GHD II was more reeling it in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 00z GEFS similar look to the operational. Once again, awesome if verifies, but concerned we didn’t see more of a bump north. We likely trend to a consensus from here which favors north central Indiana and NW Ohio.Too early to say that, it's not uncommon at all to have pretty large swings at shorter lead times. See the east coast bomb 2 days out for one of many examples. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM was very amped for GHD I, GFS was solid IIRC I want to say both were south for GHD II and baby stepped slowly north. Euro led the way with that one. Speaking from a Chi metro standpoint, that area was in the bullseye fairly early and for much of the time with GHD I while GHD II was more reeling it in I think GFS did pretty well for GHD II, did it waver less farther out than ECMWF? I do recall the ECMWF started honing in on the more extreme QPF/snow output. The stronger surface low was a pretty late detail in the forecast that led to us issuing the blizzard warning. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Spartman said: Hate it to end up being like the ice storm that New England and parts of Eastern Canada endured in January 1998. January 2009 in Kentucky was worst ice storm I've seen since following weather. I'm 31 years old so not too old. Wasn't in it but here in Indy we got over a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The 00z UKMET was a decent bump NW and is considerably wetter, but with the caveat that it was already on the far southern end of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, vpbob21 said: Lake Erie is pretty much frozen now (at least the western half) so there shouldn't be much, if any enhancement. Not sure if the GFS knows that or not. It's all frozen, except a small eastern area. Ice maps posted yesterday in Jan Discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 43 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I think GFS did pretty well for GHD II, did it waver less farther out than ECMWF? I do recall the ECMWF started honing in on the more extreme QPF/snow output. The stronger surface low was a pretty late detail in the forecast that led to us issuing the blizzard warning. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk You could be right. I’d have to go back and look. I just remember always making gif comparisons of Euro QPF from WxBell showing the bumps north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, Brian D said: It's all frozen, except a small eastern area. Ice maps posted yesterday in Jan Discussion thread. Those ice maps are never accurate, better to use satellite imagery. The far southtowns of Buffalo received over 3 feet of snow from an event in which the lake was 85% covered last year. So lake effect potential is definitely still there. Can get evaporation between the cracks in the ice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Would be curious to go back and look at the NAM/GFS runs ~3 days prior to GHD I and II Couldn't find the regular thread, but going off the GHD I weenie maps in there it looks like there was a bit of a north shift. For GHD II, the Euro was south around this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Those ice maps are never accurate, better to use satellite imagery. The far southtowns of Buffalo received over 3 feet of snow from an event in which the lake was 85% covered last year. So lake effect potential is definitely still there. Looks like after this is over, all that ice will be piled up on the western end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, snowman33 said: For GHD II, the Euro was south around this time. Did I make that euro QPF gif? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: Did I make that euro QPF gif? Yes lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowman33 said: Couldn't find the regular thread, but going off the GHD I weenie maps in there it looks like there was a bit of a north shift. For GHD II, the Euro was south around this time. Interesting! I’ve always wanted to track 48-72 hour “bull eyes” as in location areas, to see the actually verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Cincy12 said: Interesting! I’ve always wanted to track 48-72 hour “bull eyes” as in location areas, to see the actually verified. If my memory serves me correctly, the central axis of the heaviest snow was modelled to run through Valparaiso and South Bend on the globals. Then the hi-res models latched onto the north shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro with a slight bump NW with the early overrunning snows compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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