nwohweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Owensnow said: I think this is overdone, the SREF plumes mean is less than 10 inches for TOL. That changeover timing is becoming farther delayed. Also QPF from second wave is waaayy down. As of now this looks like an entirely incorrect statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 gorgeous morning out here. Hard to believe that we are on the cusp of a decent winter event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 SREF Plume mean at GYY is 15 inches. I don't know if these are very accurate, but that's as high a total as I can recall. It's in line with the NAM and HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, nwohweather said: As of now this looks like an entirely incorrect statement Check your plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 FTR, I'm riding the GFS and RAP to a disappointing 0.2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Slight axis adjustments for some, but otherwise the 12z GFS is holding serve overall with this for the whole period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 KIND mets tired? lol .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 259 AM EST Tue Feb 1 2022 Dry but cold weather will follow Friday into early next week. Temperatures should stay below normal with little if any snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Baum said: gorgeous morning out here. Hard to believe that we are on the cusp of a decent winter event my dog may not come inside today as my friend used to say, "when 40 feels like 60" with that sunshine... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Tornado siren test right now is a nice touch. Going with a final call of 15” for MBY. Jackpot call in LOT’s CWA is somewhere in Ford County with 19”. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Guys, calm down. The 15z RAP is running! …Hey, get back here, straws! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, Baum said: gorgeous morning out here. Hard to believe that we are on the cusp of a decent winter event You can actually walk outside without a coat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Owensnow said: yuck not good for chicago so we must throw that run out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Sciascia said: Guys, calm down. The 15z RAP is running! …Hey, get back here, straws! Gonna need them up here. We were forecast 12-16 per DTW but now 2nd wave is trending SE consistently. Now looking at 6-10 maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Guys, calm down. The 15z RAP is running! …Hey, get back here, straws! Sez ready2bburied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Weather Mike said: not good for chicago so we must throw that run out I know, the trend is nerve racking! Arctic air looks to be winning the push? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The latest run of the Canadian model seems to bring heavier precipitation further northwest for the second wave on Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 pronged storm just became 1 for DTW and XHA here at my place, north shore of lake Erie accros from Sandusky. No snow at all hardly from wave 2. All south. Wonder if the trend continues for the first wave inclusive? What is happening/ PV ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: The latest run of the Canadian model seems to bring heavier precipitation further northwest for the second wave on Thursday... Quickly shunts to the east though, need to be more amplified. At least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: The latest run of the Canadian model seems to bring heavier precipitation further northwest for the second wave on Thursday... I WANT TO BELIEVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, Owensnow said: yuck In all fairness, that's a 10:1 ratio map, so likely somewhat underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 15z RAP still rapping (best model) 12z RGEM holds serve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 At this point, I’d do backflips if I can get 2-4 inches in Poplar Grove. And yes, I know it’s unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, Owensnow said: yuck The GFS performed terribly with the Boston blizzard. Too far SE and too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 19 minutes ago, Owensnow said: yuck The Tropical Tidbits winter accumulations maps are terrible. Would suggest COD or Pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, RobertSul said: The GFS performed terribly with the Boston blizzard. Too far SE and too dry. I hope you are right. Really need that 2nd wave to stay in the double digit totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 LOT map seems fairly consistent to model consensus. We'll see of they tweek it after 12Z runs. Might be a tad NW. I'm not expecting 7-8" IMBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 15z RAP still rapping (best model) 12z RGEM holds serve Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 15z RAP still rapping (best model) 12z RGEM holds serve God I hope the RAP is on to something. Everything else is SE now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Owensnow said: God I hope the RAP is on to something. Everything else is SE now GEM also appeared to stay inline with the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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