Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Powerball said: It might be cutting due NNE into Ohio. Maybe not, it hit a wall in Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z RGEM bumping north with the overrunning event. Edit: Way north so far. (Cyclone I'm looking at you.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 That'd be something...rain with the overrunning and a whiff with the main storm. If this were 10 years ago I'd need a straightjacket and IV of valium. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said: That'd be something...rain with the overrunning and a whiff with the main storm. If this were 10 years ago I'd need a straightjacket and IV of valium. I think Brian D's original title was more appropiate for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: That'd be something...rain with the overrunning and a whiff with the main storm. If this were 10 years ago I'd need a straightjacket and IV of valium. But somehow, Toronto still makes out quite well with the storm on the 00z RGEM. Yet, Cleveland gets a massive sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 RGEM is kind to Chicago w/lake contribution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: But somewhat, Toronto still makes out quite well with the storm. Yet, Cleveland gets a massive sleet fest. Yeah >1 foot (Kuchera) even with losing .2-.3" of QPF to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: What are all these short range models picking up on that the global models are missing? This. What are we missing here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Harry Perry said: This. What are we missing here.. They are terrible at synoptic scale features, and have limited zones of modelling. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Don't get me wrong, they can sniff out stuff once and a while but often they are overamplified and correct to the synoptic scale models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 0z GFS appears as though it will bump north with the overrunning event as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Still makes for some good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS appears as though it will bump north with the overrunning event as well. Annoying comment, but it appears to be an orientation change (actually) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Think this 00Z GFS initiation at the surface has a lot to say generally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, mimillman said: Annoying comment, but it appears to be an orientation change (actually) i was attempting not to use it again, but definitely was. It was south to the west and north to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The models are luckily keeping my expectations down. Could be a big storm or could be a run of the mill light rain to 3-5” event that happens every other November This is definitely what keeps EC from issuing watches so early haha. The moment they issued the watches and special weather statement my group chats started talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Pretty decent bump south with the 2nd wave on the 00z GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The 2nd wave almost misses me completely on this run of the GFS but the first wave puts down 15 inches in Kuchera so who am I to complain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, mississaugasnow said: The models are luckily keeping my expectations down. Could be a big storm or could be a run of the mill light rain to 3-5” event that happens every other November With the NAM and RGEM doing what they did, setting aside the drier inter-wave period with the NAM, would have figured the GFS would have ticked north a bit. Nope...opposite, total whiff. That's modelology for ya. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2nd wave more south this also means less over lapping from the first wave and max snow amounts down some 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Spread the wealth anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: With the NAM and RGEM doing what they did, setting aside the drier inter-wave period with the NAM, would have figured the GFS would have ticked north a bit. Nope...opposite, total whiff. That's modelology for ya. Certainly not one to nit pick often but I’ve never found multi day snow events that interesting. Which is confusing since I love retaining snow pack haha. There’s something about that 12-15 hour storm that puts down 6-8” instead of 10” in 24-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: With the NAM and RGEM doing what they did, setting aside the drier inter-wave period with the NAM, would have figured the GFS would have ticked north a bit. Nope...opposite, total whiff. That's modelology for ya. There is a big difference with how they handle the Vort around the 4 corners area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasestormz39 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 2nd wave more south this also means less over lapping from the first wave and max snow amounts down some Noticed that as well on the 0z GFS. And about a 3 hour window with minimal snowfall between waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Definitely looking like a one wave show for me now but 1st wave looks like it could really deliver big. Hopefully the banding will setup over me. Some models have it really close. Most models barely skirt my area now with 2nd wave. A bit disappointing because I was excited for 2 huge waves of heavy snow but I will take what I can get. Hoping I can still break double digits. It will be close. Some sharp gradients near me. Sharp cutoffs nw and sharp increases se. Movements in track either way will drastically change my outcome. Forever riding the line here. Someday I will be in the jackpot zone again. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3z RAP will be north of 21z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 3z RAP will be north of 21z Long live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 3z RAP will be north of 21z It's taking on the new SW-NE orientation we've seen in 0z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: It's taking on the new SW-NE orientation we've seen in 0z guidance. yep a different orientation!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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