Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z GEM bumped north with he overrunning event. Not surprising though, given the RGEM bumped north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEM bumped north with he overrunning event. Not surprising though, given the RGEM bumped north as well. If the GEM And Euro end up being the north solutions after days of being the south one it's gonna be hilarious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 If I were to guess, the GFS is overcorrecting South and we will see bumps north for the main event beginning tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: Agree GFS making some slight corrections south. Euro coming slightly north. ICON south. RGEM and NAM coming north. What a battle. Some changes of 30-50 miles makes a difference. My comment about the EURO was tongue in cheek. In my honest opinion, we'll probably see further consolidation with the heaviest amounts from C. Illinois, N. Central IN and NW Ohio, along with a continued but slow drying trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'd rather get missed altogether than the 4 inches the GFS shows for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Man! What a change between 00z and 12z GFS. Some places went from 0” to 17.5” in southern Indiana. 50-75 mile jumps to keep us on the edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: Agree GFS making some slight corrections south. Euro coming slightly north. ICON south. RGEM and NAM coming north. What a battle. Some changes of 30-50 miles makes a difference. Battle of whether or not to book a flight lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It is leaving a lot of VORT in the 4 corners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, mimillman said: If I were to guess, the GFS is overcorrecting South and we will see bumps north for the main event beginning tomorrow. fairly decent consensus at this point. We're just watching every 30 mile shift because it matters so much on the edge. Which is unfortunately where were riding. Nice looking storm. Many twists and turns still to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEM bumped north with he overrunning event. Not surprising though, given the RGEM bumped north as well. I know that there are many players on the board but this close to the storm why are the models struggling so much. I fully expect the southern placement of snow to remain south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 For those interested, here is a nice video on the upcoming storms. ("professional meteorology analyst") He did a nice job on the recent nor'easter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Baum said: fairly decent consensus at this point. We're just watching every 30 mile shift because it matters so much on the edge. Which is unfortunately where were riding. Nice looking storm. Many twists and turns still to come. Seems so. You head south of Chicago and models have been pretty consistent since Fridayish. Chicago crew just right on the edge of the big dog so I’m sure it feels like a wild ride to them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: know that there are many players on the board but this close to the storm why are the models struggling so much. Said every storm. But I think they have been remarkably consistent in this case. We have had shifts of 30-50 miles from 6 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEM bumped north with he overrunning event. Not surprising though, given the RGEM bumped north as well. A bump north with the main storm system as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 26 inches in Champaign on the GFS, guessing that would smash the current record. I wonder if it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Baum said: fairly decent consensus at this point. We're just watching every 30 mile shift because it matters so much on the edge. Which is unfortunately where were riding. Nice looking storm. Many twists and turns still to come. Only thing I could see is a steady drying out in the heavy band through central IL and Indiana. Instead of 25-30" more like 10-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 There are roughly three periods where northern areas will have favorable support from the upper jet dynamics. These setups usually produce banded snows, and it's not something you'll see on modeled QPF. How much snow they produce depends on whether the best frontogenesis and lift correspond with the DGZ. The most impressive period for this setup is on Thursday - circled below is the right rear quad of a ~190KT jet streak. Should some of the more southern solutions verify (with a less amped SE/E Coast ridge and a pig-headed PV over Ontario/Quebec instead of Hudson Bay), these dynamics end up farther south. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Think this might be the first big winter storm where Bastardi has not been mentioned. Apologies in advance if his name is forbidden here Did he retire or get shamed off the intenet? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: I know that there are many players on the board but this close to the storm why are the models struggling so much. I fully expect the southern placement of snow to remain south. It's pretty much the same back and worth we see with most potential storm systems/event these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: For those interested, here is a nice video on the upcoming storms. (Trained meteorologist) He did a nice job on the recent nor'easter. He’s not a meteorologist and used to be abysmal. Ever since he crashed his “storm seeker” in Texas he’s been humbled and kinda cleaned up his act a bit even. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: It's pretty much the same back and worth we see with most potential storm systems/event these days. Wonder if the south trend has to do with the initial Vort over the NW being well sampled last night into today while the southern Vort will not be as well sampled until tomorrow afternoon. Still can go either way but makes me wonder if the GFS changes are related. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, hlcater said: He’s not a meteorologist and used to be abysmal. Ever since he crashed his “storm seeker” in Texas he’s been humbled and kinda cleaned up his act a bit even. Thanks. I updated my original post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Good ol' model emotional whiplash. Some models north, others south. Definitely a little nervous a south trend may continue again. Hoping at this point it will be just be small bumps north or south. I haven't had double digit snow in a while now. This looks like my best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, KokomoWX said: Thanks. I updated my original post. Is "professional meteorology analyst" now the PC label for "weather weenie?" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Good ol' model emotional whiplash. Some models north, others south. Definitely a little nervous a south trend may continue again. Hoping at this point it will be just be small bumps north or south. I haven't had double digit snow in a while now. This looks like my best shot. Good news is it is running out of time, for the first waves anyway. I'm still a bit pessimistic, been in the bullseye for way too long to stay in it. That just doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Thanks. I updated my original post. He’s not terrible anymore. Bordering on decent even 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: There are roughly three periods where northern areas will have favorable support from the upper jet dynamics. These setups usually produce banded snows, and it's not something you'll see on modeled QPF. How much snow they produce depends on whether the best frontogenesis and lift correspond with the DGZ. Even if the models get the positioning of synoptic features correct, the positioning of snow bands is hard to predict. If the frontal zone aloft is mostly stationary throughout the event the same heavy bands may persist over some areas more than others within the same general swath. Will be interesting if there ends up being a narrow band of really extreme totals in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Good ol' model emotional whiplash. Some models north, others south. Definitely a little nervous a south trend may continue again. Hoping at this point it will be just be small bumps north or south. I haven't had double digit snow in a while now. This looks like my best shot. You will be just fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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