King James Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Also showing impressive banding just to my west with 20 inch totals in northern Porter and LaPorte. 20 inches may not be realistic...but a good indication someone will get buried under good banding. Edit: Might be some lake enhancement there, too? Peoria to LaPorte = IKK jackpot if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 51 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Do you have any thoughts on the lake enhancement potential in the area? I don't want to say the parameters are God awful the whole time, but... lol Inversion height get pretty shallow at times, like 4k feet with considerable drying just above. Sufficient delta T up to that level though. Seems like the most aggressive guidance may be overdone. Thoughts? late run 18z HRRR joins the rest of the models in this big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 HRRR looking like RGEM...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Sheesh. It's almost hard amongst all the discussion to really grasp what 12-20" will do to this region. Everything is just so open and flat across NE IN/NW Ohio. To combine that with what will be a more powdery snow on Thursday & gusty winds into Friday, this part of the country is going to be absolutely shut down for days. I think drifts approaching 10' in some spots is not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Do you have any thoughts on the lake enhancement potential in the area? I don't want to say the parameters are God awful the whole time, but... lol Inversion height get pretty shallow at times, like 4k feet with considerable drying just above. Sufficient delta T up to that level though. Seems like the most aggressive guidance may be overdone. Thoughts?I'd call initial inversion heights sub marginal. Since you will certainly be saturated and have good synoptic forcing with right jet entrance region, the enhancement will probably be of speed convergence variety for the most part. As delta T and instability improves and inversion heights come up to or above 850 mb, then it's more marginal to conditional with continued speed convergence onto land. Because there's synoptic forcing in addition to boost in low level lift from the lake, I'd expect a modest boost in totals due to lake enhancement, maybe 1-3, 2-4" type stuff? Last Feb actually didn't have great inversion heights, but synoptic lift and lake induced instability and convergence resulted in lift being centered in deep DGZ. This doesn't have nearly as favorable a setup but it's not nothing for a time. Jan 31, 2021 actually had pretty good lake enhancement despite marginal inversion heights, for example. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: Sheesh. It's almost hard amongst all the discussion to really grasp what 12-20" will do to this region. Everything is just so open and flat across NE IN/NW Ohio. To combine that with what will be a more powdery snow on Thursday & gusty winds into Friday, this part of the country is going to be absolutely shut down for days. I think drifts approaching 10' in some spots is not out of the question When I was in LAF and we had 17" in the Feb 2007 storm, I recall there being 10 foot drifts in the outlying areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Wild gradient from NW to SE across Cook Co. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18Z NAM in line with 18z HRRR with increased amounts intense band overnight setting up from UIN to PIA to Will county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I'd call initial inversion heights sub marginal. Since you will certainly be saturated and have good synoptic forcing with right jet entrance region, the enhancement will probably be of speed convergence variety for the most part. As delta T and instability improves and inversion heights come up to or above 850 mb, then it's more marginal to conditional with continued speed convergence onto land. Because there's synoptic forcing in addition to boost in low level lift from the lake, I'd expect a modest boost in totals due to lake enhancement, maybe 1-3, 2-4" type stuff? Last Feb actually didn't have great inversion heights, but synoptic lift and lake induced instability and convergence resulted in lift being centered in deep DGZ. This doesn't have nearly as favorable a setup but it's not nothing for a time. Jan 31, 2021 actually had pretty good lake enhancement despite marginal inversion heights, for example. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Thanks for weighing in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: When I was in LAF and we had 17" in the Feb 2007 storm, I recall there being 10 foot drifts in the outlying areas. And this is literally completely an outlying area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 We may be in nowcasting territory but the 18z NAM has a fascinating band now in place Hours 18-24 across N. MO / S. IA -ish area that the 12z didn't have before. Could lend some credence to the higher amounts north of Chicago a la the HRRR/RAP/etc. Anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Wild gradient from NW to SE across Cook Co. Hoosier, are you buying the totals on this map, or is it overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Never seen a mesoscale surface pressure map like this. Its almost symmetrical lol. Can definitely see the area where the clash will begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: We may be in nowcasting territory but the 18z NAM has a fascinating band now in place Hours 18-24 across N. MO / S. IA -ish area that the 12z didn't have before. Could lend some credence to the higher amounts north of Chicago a la the HRRR/RAP/etc. Anyways... yep thats a 2 inch in 3hour band for chicago south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TheRegionRat said: Hoosier, are you buying the totals on this map, or is it overdone? Could be overdone, but it's not implausible. I think we're gonna come in over 15" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18z NAM may try to come north with main low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Call me a weenie, but the NAM and HRRR are initializing too far south with this rain band 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 18z NAM may try to come north with main low. Quite a jump north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Quite a jump north. best in the game etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Some thoughts on locations closer to northwest edge of precip shield:In synoptic precip events, being in the favorable right entrance region of the upper jet is a factor that tends to result in a more expensive precip shield to the north and west. Unfortunately, we have the very dry incoming Arctic air mass to counteract that, so this is of a question of whether synoptic lift can overcome the dryness 850 mb and below. Most model guidance has the 700 mb front (and maximum h7 f-gen) separated well to the north from the 850 mb front (and maximum h8 f-gen). Because of this, I suspect that there will be multiple embedded mesoscale bands tonight into Wednesday, with a decent shot at two dual dominant bands. You look to the warm side of the maximized f-gen to where you would get the most intense mesoscale bands. This is one of the more challenging aspects of winter forecasting. But with consistent northern position of H7 front and f-gen and large separation from H8, I'm leaning toward there being a strong f-gen band positioned not far distance wise from the northwest edge of the precip field. The presence of strong fgen also tends to sharpen this gradient, so it might not end up too far between warning level snow amounts to much lower amounts to little if any snow.The hope for areas consistently right on the northwest fringe is that the dry air influence is being overdone a bit, allowing large scale (jet entrance region) and mesoscale (f-gen and low stability to unstable conditions in the DGZ) to overcome the dryness. For the above reasons, I was definitely in agreement with the midnight shift issuing the warnings for areas left in watch and including DuPage and Kendall in the warning, with a tier north/west of that in advisory. If the models are much overdone with the dry air influence, will have to watch for banding to set up decently farther north than expected. The opposite can be true as well regarding the dry air. Will be interesting to track obs and radar this evening to see how this all unfolds. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 33 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 18Z NAM in line with 18z HRRR with increased amounts intense band overnight setting up from UIN to PIA to Will county Paging my guy @Gilbertfly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 lol my new fave model - RAP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I've already reached the acceptance stage of this storm, need the RAP & company to stop their shenanigans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Hi-Res gonna Hi-Res. But I'll eat crow if they end up sniffing out a last second NW trend with the 2nd wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Quite a jump north. Guidance really making Matty sweat about not flying home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Go hi-res or hit the hi-way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said: Guidance really making Matty sweat about not flying home Same with me and powerball lolol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Spread on plumes at ORD is pretty solid 10-15” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Same with me and powerball lolol. Going to get a good upslope event out here but eek at some new guidance there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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