Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2

[Jonger]

58 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Second wave keeps trending south.  IMO the 12"+ totals are not likely in this area but 6"+ will paint the DTX area.

There's a reason just about every "storm" ends up around 6 inches here. It's just what we do.

Expect 6 to 10. The warning will probably be adjusted down to that as well. Just watch.

[Powerball]

BTW, I'm sticking with my preliminary call as final. Widespread 10-15" with isolated higher amounts*.

*Besides the areas on the northern and southern edge getting screwed by slight shifts, there could also be a narrow area from far NE Indiana / far NW Ohio into the Detroit area and SW Ontario that gets slightly lower amounts as the better forcing for the 1st round sets up just NW of there and the better forcing for the 2nd round sets up just SE of there.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm going with a final call of 4" for Toronto. Tough for me to say that when there was once so much potential. Still, after the 21" I received on January 17th, I guess I can't really complain.

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, Powerball said:

There is at least some question about it snowing continuously in many areas. It seems increasingly likely there will be a lull Wednesday night.

But I get your point (it's all still one congealed mess of a system), and it's valid even if unpopular.

Wednesday has turned into the main show here anyway. Or so it appears.

[mississaugasnow]

1 minute ago, Jonger said:

There's a reason just about every "storm" ends up around 6 inches here. It's just what we do.

Expect 6 to 10. The warning will probably be adjusted down to that as well. Just watch.

Toronto busted that theory two weeks ago but ya were back. It was kind of weird for YYZ to have two winter storms produce over 12" and averages won out. 

I wasn't buying your average clipper talk but ya, for GTHA this will be a nothing storm. I am excited to pad the stats and get some fresh snow but unlikely my snow depth changes because of the melting/rain before. 

Either way I only have about 2-3 weeks left in the winter tank before I start cheering for big SE ridges and 50s/60s haha 

[Owensnow]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wednesday has turned into the main show here anyway. Or so it appears.

There is always the RGEM

 

It looked great at 6Z

[laferri2]

8 minutes ago, Jonger said:

There's a reason just about every "storm" ends up around 6 inches here. It's just what we do.

Expect 6 to 10. The warning will probably be adjusted down to that as well. Just watch.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised to end up with an inch of rain and two inches of cement on my driveway by Friday AM. 

[mississaugasnow]

3 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm going with a final call of 4" for Toronto. Tough for me to say that when there was once so much potential. Still, after the 21" I received on January 17th, I guess I can't really complain.

ya, I agree. I think I sneak out 3-5" down here in Hamilton/Halidmand. Should be a nice spread the wealth 2-5" though from Kincardine-Toronto and Windsor-London should get 4-6". The next 5-7 days look like the snow won't be going anywhere so we start getting into talk of long duration snow cover which is rare (to a degree) for Toronto

[Lightning]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wednesday has turned into the main show here anyway. Or so it appears.

It is turning more and more into a spread the wealth type storm as the 2nd wave is more SE of the 1st wave. 

[Jonger]

4 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Toronto busted that theory two weeks ago but ya were back. It was kind of weird for YYZ to have two winter storms produce over 12" and averages won out. 

I wasn't buying your average clipper talk but ya, for GTHA this will be a nothing storm. I am excited to pad the stats and get some fresh snow but unlikely my snow depth changes because of the melting/rain before. 

Either way I only have about 2-3 weeks left in the winter tank before I start cheering for big SE ridges and 50s/60s haha 

We get teased a lot here, but for whatever reason....the storm trajectory required for a big storm here tends to result in less moisture to work with or we're too far north. Tough to explain, but after 42 years.....I could count the double digit storm tallies on 2 hands....and almost 1 hand. 

If I cracked double digits more than 5 times in 40 years I would be shocked.

[RyanDe680]

looks sloppy

[Jonger]

4 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

At this point I wouldn't be surprised to end up with an inch of rain and two inches of cement on my driveway by Friday AM. 

We'll end up with 6 to 10.....but the 10 has to all happen on the first wave. The forecast in that time period is 6 to 9. There will be no second wave here, so 6-10 will be the warning figure. 

[Chicago Storm]

Main storm system on the NAM is a nice hit along STL-IND-CLE corridor.

Some overlap with the overrunning event, but not as much as prior runs recently.


.

[A-L-E-K]

i'm riding the fv3 now, ready 2 b buried

 

[King James]

16.8 inches at IKK. Final call. Models haven’t really blinked for my area since Friday 

[michsnowfreak]

21 minutes ago, Jonger said:

We get teased a lot here, but for whatever reason....the storm trajectory required for a big storm here tends to result in less moisture to work with or we're too far north. Tough to explain, but after 42 years.....I could count the double digit storm tallies on 2 hands....and almost 1 hand. 

If I cracked double digits more than 5 times in 40 years I would be shocked.

I've cracked double digits 5 times since Jan 1 2014. Cracking a foot is the hard part. Huge difference between 10" and 12" for some reason. That said tmrw should still be a nice storm.

[Baum]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i'm riding the fv3 now, ready 2 b buried

 

eh the model burnout is real. It'll be nice just to nowcast soon. 

[Jonger]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I've cracked double digits 5 times since Jan 1 2014. Cracking a foot is the hard part. Huge difference between 10" and 12" for some reason. That said tmrw should still be a nice storm.

Nov 2015 was the only one here. It's possible I'm missing one....if you find maps proving otherwise, post them.

[Weather Mike]

Just now, Baum said:

eh the model burnout is real. It'll be nice just to nowcast soon. 

agree. one goes a tick north and another a tick south etc.  We are talking about small changes now. The main track is set. But its those norther fringe people that are most concerned with those small changes

[Stevo6899]

41 minutes ago, Powerball said:

BTW, I'm sticking with my preliminary call as final. Widespread 10-15" with isolated higher amounts*.

*Besides the areas on the northern and southern edge getting screwed by slight shifts, there could also be a narrow area from far NE Indiana / far NW Ohio into the Detroit area and SW Ontario that gets slightly lower amounts as the better forcing for the 1st round sets up just NW of there and the better forcing for the 2nd round sets up just SE of there.

Dtw big dog (18+) curse continues.  That last storm that delivered the goods to Toronto/Cleveland found a way to literally track/detour around us and now this time around we're gonna be stuck in between the goods.  After all these years it doesn't really surprise me or disappoint me anymore but I can't help but laugh how Detroit found a way to miss out on 2 straight potential big dogs in a matter of weeks. Cue the "oh the models are still showing 8-12.  That's gonna be highly dependent on banding and we all know how unpredictable that is. Detroits gonna have to get lucky to get 8 " out of this which Josh will be thrilled about but at this point it's big dog or nothing for me.  Good luck to all those in line to get historic snows and enjoy it!

[MikeGold]

43 minutes ago, Jonger said:

We get teased a lot here, but for whatever reason....the storm trajectory required for a big storm here tends to result in less moisture to work with or we're too far north. Tough to explain, but after 42 years.....I could count the double digit storm tallies on 2 hands....and almost 1 hand. 

If I cracked double digits more than 5 times in 40 years I would be shocked.

Howell is definitely not a good spot for snow probably because it is too far east for lake effect and too far west of the glacial ridge where enhancement often occurs.  Eastern Livingston/Washtenaw counties seem to always do better and not just with snow either.   FYI...think 12 to 16" is still doable in the Dexter/Ann Arbor area if storm #2 ends up still clipping us. 

[Jim Martin]

Winter Storm Warnings now in effect for all of Northwest Ohio.

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Nov 2015 was the only one here. It's possible I'm missing one....if you find maps proving otherwise, post them.

I don't have time to look up every storm to see what howell got, but I can tell you mine since I started measuring in 1995. And I remember howell got slammed in some of them, others were southern county storms (but on the flip side howell had some I didn't get double digits, like nov 2015 or Jan 2008)

Feb 15/16, 2021: 11.0

Dec 11, 2016: 10.9"

Feb 1/2, 2015: 16.5"

Jan 5/6, 2014: 10.3"

Jan 1/2, 2014: 11.1"

Feb 20 2011: 10.2"

Feb 1/2, 2011: 10.1"

Mar 4/5, 2008: 10.3"

Jan 22, 2005: 11.0"

Feb 21/22, 2003: 11.5"

Jan 2/3, 1999: 12.0"

[MikeGold]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't have time to look up every storm to see what howell got, but I can tell you mine since I started measuring in 1995. And I remember howell got slammed in some of them, others were southern county storms (but on the flip side howell had some I didn't get double digits, like nov 2015 or Jan 2008)

Feb 15/16, 2021: 11.0

Dec 11, 2016: 10.9"

Feb 1/2, 2015: 16.5"

Jan 5/6, 2014: 10.3"

Jan 1/2, 2014: 11.1"

Feb 20 2011: 10.2"

Feb 1/2, 2011: 10.1"

Mar 4/5, 2008: 10.3"

Jan 22, 2005: 11.0"

Feb 21/22, 2003: 11.5"

Jan 2/3, 1999: 12.0"

Easy way to visualize this is to look at the DTX seasonal snowfall maps.  Generally big jump in snowfall totals just East of Howell. Any easterly component to the wind will put Howell in a bit of snow shadow. https://www.weather.gov/dtx/seasonal_snow

[King James]

Michigan banter is the worst 

[hawkeye_wx]

Those of you about to get 12+ inches over 36 hours, how often will you be clearing your snow boards?

[Baum]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Those of you about to get 12+ inches over 36 hours, how often are you planning to clear your snow boards?

stop trolling me.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

Easy way to visualize this is to look at the DTX seasonal snowfall maps.  Generally big jump in snowfall totals just East of Howell. Any easterly component to the wind will put Howell in a bit of snow shadow. https://www.weather.gov/dtx/seasonal_snow

Those are terrible maps tho. They were drawn up by interns at DTX who used Coop data which involves a lot of missing data so certain stations will show way lower snow than actually fell

[Owensnow]

LOL Nam 12z has CLE in jackpot south of me.

 

These models are making me nutz

[KokomoWX]

I feel pretty good about my chances for 12+ inches.  I was worried earlier about being on the sharp southern cut off (and possibly ice) but that has passed.  Anything less than 10" will be a bust in my mind though.