Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 i'm here for the plumes....lay 'em on thick 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 And up we go on the rollercoaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 1:31 AM, NEILwxbo said: If you punted on the NW fringe, don’t look at the hrrr Expand ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:15 AM, Chicago Storm said: That's an everyday occurrence now. Expand oh I only thought east coast weenies could overload model pages I guess we don't have that power yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:18 AM, Gilbertfly said: i'm here for the plumes....lay 'em on thick. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Sometimes I marvel at how terrible a model the NAM is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'm starting to hate the 0Z NAM runs, this one not as bad as last nights.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 How's the HRW FV3 model been? I'm assuming not good with winter events? The weenie in me is binning it with other higher resolution models that are shifting North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:17 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Front is slower by about 6 hours. Southern wave more neutral tilt out west...maybe better for the main storm. Maybe. Expand As you mention, the trough is closer to neutral tilt and is also a good bit faster as well. However, heights are lower ahead of it prior to any ejection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 whoa. ALEK right on the screws!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:18 AM, Gilbertfly said: i'm here for the plumes....lay 'em on thick Expand 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:22 AM, WeatherMonger said: I'm starting to hate the 0Z NAM runs, this one not as bad as last nights.... Expand Seems like the conveyor dries out a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Plumes for GRR, with the unrealistic clunkers removed of course. Remember Grr’s take on this storm from Saturday? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It makes sense. As the first wave trends beefier, it surpresses heights in its wake that forces the 2nd wave further south, along with the better forcing/moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I will say, the wishcasting here doesn’t compare to what I see in the SE threads. All those are is everybody hugging hi-res models over a random band dropping 3-5” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:29 AM, Jonger said: Seems like the conveyor dries out a bit more. Expand Yeah, sizeable gap in qpf shield and big change from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:21 AM, mimillman said: Sometimes I marvel at how terrible a model the NAM is Expand If forecast models had mascots, this would be the NAM's. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 SREF mean for KCID is surprisingly good and is up to 7.5". I took the liberty of removing a bunch of unrealistic clunks to get a more accurate reading, of course. Cant wait for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:14 AM, Powerball said: One trend that seems to be legit is that the models are getting beefier with the amounts from that first round. The 00z NAM continues that trend. Expand Thats actually a bit of hope where we're at here. At least with a fully phased system its like a hooker, you pretty much know what your gonna get. These quasi phased half slop messes more often than not with the second part we get bent over like the last goat in a herd in the desert whithout a courtesy reach around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:31 AM, Powerball said: It makes sense. As the first wave trends beefier, it surpresses heights in its wakdthat forces the 2nd wave further south, along with the better forcing. Expand Looks to be more tied to the wave diving into the Pac NW, which eventually gets involved with the wave coming out of the SW. Notice how earlier runs had that wave diving more southward into the West, before eventually trending further NW with less of a dive the past several runs. This in turn has lead the heights being shunted down ahead of the main ejecting trough. This run seemed to reverse the Pac NW wave issues a bit, but the faster timing of the SW wave ended up still lowering heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I’m sitting at a Blackhawks game spending most for my attention on this thread and showing my wife the memes. Best entertainment of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:22 AM, WeatherMonger said: I'm starting to hate the 0Z NAM runs, this one not as bad as last nights.... Expand Ok, I lied. Let's just lock it in now. Kuchera or 10:1 is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:36 AM, btcs31 said: I’m sitting at a Blackhawks game spending most for my attention on this thread and showing my wife the memes. Best entertainment of the week. Expand Thank the tequila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:36 AM, Chicago Storm said: Looks to be more tied to the wave diving into the Pac NW, which eventually gets involved with the wave coming out of the SW. Notice how earlier runs had that wave diving more southward into the West, before eventually trending further NW with less of a dive the past several runs. This in turn has lead the heights being shunted down ahead of the main ejecting trough. This run seemed to reverse the Pac NW wave issues a bit, but the faster timing of the SW wave ended up still lowering heights. Expand It did try to finally cut towards the end there, but still too little too late for those on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 no way 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 2:39 AM, Powerball said: It did try to finally cut towards the end there, but still too little too late for those on the northern edge. Expand The change this run did end up making for a more organized storm system a bit as it moved east through the sub-forum (IN/OH/MI). Still a few bumps back the other direction before it would be really noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Round 2 ends up being way better this far east compared to 12z/18z NAM. But no continuity, especially the dry air invasion between the two waves. Safe toss but can fish it out of the trash if it starts getting other support from the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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