Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: The reign of geos is a distant memory Yeah if he still lived there this is probably a 20"er easy with his pull 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Filled the snowblower to the brim with gas, got my washer fluid and shoveled around the snowboards to make a larger measuring surface (not sure what we lose tmrw). I am storm ready! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 48 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: call looking sketchy af, gonna need some northern weenie band magic you've been off this season. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Lake ice is definitely shifting N on the S winds today (click to zoom). Most of this along the south shore and near Chicago will be gone after tomorrow's blustery, mild day. Not sure how much it'll matter for any lake enhancement, but it can't hurt to have more open water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM is a slight tick northwest for the first event, but that can be a lot for some people *like me* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, King James said: 6-10 is too low. The models have been super consistent with our area We shall see. I’m not buying the trumped up Kuchera totals at all. 10:1 is a good ballpark considering what ratios will start as (low) and end with (little higher). It’s all overrunning for us as the main storm will largely whiff south. And like I said, we will waste some precip on rain. Changeover time will be crucial. But I’ve wrong a million times before… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 18z HRRR with a nearly 12" spread across Cook county. Woof Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM appears to be north. Let the feast or famine madness continue for those riding the edge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Yeah early snows are definitely north and into Chi metro. Geos turned the magnet on from afar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Riding the Nam will break your hearts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, Harry said: I am not gonna lie but there was a point in time a little over a day ago I thought this sucker could end up going a bit too far north bringing that nasty ice threat. Lol Guess we can close the book on that sort of thing happening anymore. Won't say it is zero but yeah low.. Back in the days of 07/08 and GHD l we would be wondering who is getting smashed in WI. Yeah GHD ll came back north a bit but not like many of the others prior to that did. Now for the 18z runs! Start crossing toes, legs etc.. lol Yeah. When we were seeing the north trend to early I was concerned also about the ice. I have noticed the models have improved enough that those major shifts are a bit more rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ILN dropped some watches. For areas NW of Columbus metro: OHZ026-034-035-042>045-010415- /O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0002.220202T1500Z-220204T1200Z/ Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH- Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, and Marysville 304 PM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to four tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of Central and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall below zero degrees Friday and Friday night. And for Columbus metro: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to four tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana and Central and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall to near or below zero degrees Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoachLB said: Riding the Nam will break your hearts lol. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Winter Storm Warning hoisted for Kankakee, Livingston, Lake (Indiana) and Porter Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 right about now Chicago storm will say 18z NAM has bumped south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: We shall see. I’m not buying the trumped up Kuchera totals at all. 10:1 is a good ballpark considering what ratios will start as (low) and end with (little higher). It’s all overrunning for us as the main storm will largely whiff south. And like I said, we will waste some precip on rain. Changeover time will be crucial. But I’ve wrong a million times before… Agreed. Not buying those 25-30 in totals either. Think this 12Z Euro run makes more sense, with the usual 10-15% or so reduction, from a storm(s) total standpoint. And of course because it keeps the FZ- pinger party away from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: right about now Chicago storm will say 18z NAM has bumped south Overrunning orientation started off differently early, but after that full on SE bump, with both the overrunning event and the main storm system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: right about now Chicago storm will say 18z NAM has bumped south You mean there was a change in orientation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Crazy thing is, we gotta do this for a another day! Not sure if my heart can handle this. I have never been in this position before so yes....I'm holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 on that NAM run parts of Lake and nearly all of McHenry County get goose egged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: on that NAM run parts of Lake and nearly all of McHenry County get goose egged. Getting nervous in Arlington Heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Powerball said: You mean there was a change in orientation. On the brightside, you get to save some money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, magoos0728 said: Getting nervous in Arlington Heights you should 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: on that NAM run parts of Lake and nearly all of McHenry County get goose egged. I get a whopping 1-2 in SW Dupage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just when the 12z EURO is giving me some confidence, 18z NAM lays a turd in the punch bowl. Ick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, Gino27 said: ILN dropped some watches. For areas NW of Columbus metro: OHZ026-034-035-042>045-010415- /O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0002.220202T1500Z-220204T1200Z/ Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH- Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, and Marysville 304 PM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to four tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of Central and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall below zero degrees Friday and Friday night. And for Columbus metro: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to four tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana and Central and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall to near or below zero degrees Friday night. Both my old stomping grounds of Toledo & Marysville look to cash in nicely here. Glad to see it! I’ll be following ODOT cams eagerly while sitting on my sunny porch in shorts here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I knew I shouldn't have got excited yesterday. Man these trends today have me greatly concerned. I'm glad gfs and euro still look good here but concerned nam is shifting so south. However, it is nam so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 What are the chances of lightning in the the heaviest bands here? I've seen thundersnow from intense fgen bands before but I really don't know what to look for on the models to have an idea of this possibility. From my understanding, slantwise instability isn't apparent from simply looking at skew-T diagrams, and there's probably more to it than just a sharp horizontal temperature gradient. I'd love to hear input from some of the more knowledgeable members here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, magoos0728 said: Getting nervous in Arlington Heights Ted Phillips in charge of that town now will do that to ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Yeah, I mean Wednesday should be a nice shovellable snow. Winter only comes around once a year so it's tough not to get greedy though. But I agree in spirit. Hopefully the EURO holds and keeps the flicker of the Thursday storm alive. Im getting a bit more concerned with losing current snowpack and getting more rain. EC going nothing but rain for Tuesday night into Wednesday for me. I have 7" OTG and didnt expect so much rain to be forecasted. Unlikely it all washes away, my guess is I lose 3-4" and the rest will turn into a glacier. Also getting a bit nervous Ill be on the lower end of the 4-6" minimum I mentioned haha. Might end up right back at 7" OTG by friday morning so if you slept from today and woke up friday the snow depth wouldnt change haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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