HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18Z NAM starts in about 30 mins so we'll see if it's still going south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'm going to take today's 12Z runs for my neck of the woods as a small win. Seems like models are converging on a common solution where I take a 4"-6" event but in the game for substantially more if a small shift north commences and or lake enhancement helps. Chicago folks seem to forget prior to yesterday's 12Z runs only 1 model(GFS) had us in the game at all. So a 2"-10" spread NW to SE across the area is actually an improvement over the past 36 hours, yesterday's 18Z GFS and NAM runs not withstanding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just hoping models either hold where they are or bump slightly north again. I'm on northern fringes of heaviest snow swath. Anymore southern shifts and my totals will decrease drastically. Definitely nerve-wracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Never really done this but I'm sort of segmenting this one in my head. Hyper focused on Tue night into the first part of Wed, and then whatever will be will be. Think I may willed this a little too far south after last nights NAM. But I’m with you. It’s all overrunning for here now. Second piece looks like scraps. Only caution flag for MBY is how long does the flip to snow take. Going to waste some QPF on rain, so hopefully that all works out. Right now I’m thinking 6-10” for IKK storm total. Foot possible, but everything needs to break right for that to happen. Regardless, looks like an awesome storm for central iL and IN and on east. Would love to see someone pull a 20 spot out of this… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 EPS is north of operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 call looking sketchy af, gonna need some northern weenie band magic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 SREF Plume at 12.79" and looks to be about finished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 15z SREF plumes right at 12” for ORD. There’s a big cluster 15-20” that should be thrown out. If you get rid of that, your mean is closer to 6” which seems right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: EPS is north of operational can you post a map if you have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 49 minutes ago, Harry said: That south trend needs to do a full on reverse starting with the 18z runs and continuing till storm time. If this is to do anything meaningful up this way. Note the lead system and how much stronger it has gotten on modeling ( see GFS etc ) once it heads for and past Hudson bay. That is what is helping to pull everything further south and se. Can only hope the modeling is overdoing that feature. I agree the south trend does need to stop on the GFS!! My thought is we may not see much of a north trend until the southern stream VORT gets better sampling tomorrow. The stronger the better but weaker and well you know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: can you post a map if you have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I saw someone say something about the high pressure over Canada is running a bit weaker than what is modeled. Looks like its about 2-3mbr weaker with my completely untrained eye. Will this have any real impact on the trajectory of the main event? *I guess I should mention that the pressure right now is a little bit weaker. I don't know what it was 6~hours ago.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 desperate weenie stuff, ez toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: desperate weenie stuff, ez toss really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Thinking 6-10" for YYZ. 6" if the main storm completely whiffs, 10" if we get a modest input. We can start talking 10"+ if things start bumping north again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baum said: really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY. HRRR has it around 50º tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baum said: really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY. it was supposed to be warm today/tomorrow even on the miss south guidance, not seeing anything to suggest model guidance on baroclinic zone is off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: desperate weenie stuff, ez toss The earthquake in OK def means it’s gonna go north, it’s just common sense 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, Lightning said: I agree the south trend does need to stop on the GFS!! My thought is we may not see much of a north trend until the southern stream VORT gets better sampling tomorrow. The stronger the better but weaker and well you know. I am not gonna lie but there was a point in time a little over a day ago I thought this sucker could end up going a bit too far north bringing that nasty ice threat. Lol Guess we can close the book on that sort of thing happening anymore. Won't say it is zero but yeah low.. Back in the days of 07/08 and GHD l we would be wondering who is getting smashed in WI. Yeah GHD ll came back north a bit but not like many of the others prior to that did. Now for the 18z runs! Start crossing toes, legs etc.. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 16 minutes ago, CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 said: I saw someone say something about the high pressure over Canada is running a bit weaker than what is modeled. Looks like its about 2-3mbr weaker with my completely untrained eye. Will this have any real impact on the trajectory of the main event? *I guess I should mention that the pressure right now is a little bit weaker. I don't know what it was 6~hours ago.* No. The evolution of the upper level trough and jet dynamics is what will dictate the strength of this storm and the location of the best forcing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, Powerball said: What/who do we have to sacrifice in order to get the 1/29 12z GFS run back? Probably me lol. Per usual a 25 mile shift is the difference of warning criteria snow or hellish cold rain, FZ and pingertown misery. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: it was supposed to be warm today/tomorrow even on the miss south guidance, not seeing anything to suggest model guidance on baroclinic zone is off Its the LLJ from the northern stream low heading up into Canada. It would be one thing if that low was farther north than modeled, but stronger is probably detrimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Baum said: really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY. Torching in the upper 50's out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Baum said: really? I was going to post it feels like spring outside today, and if that warm weather meant the storm would be further north. Also, with the snowpack melting off a bit that should help as well to bring it north. I have no pride when it comes to landing a 20" snowstorm IMBY. I'm just waiting for the "nowcasting time!" posts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Over running becoming the main event for Chicago, but it’s decent I for sure became more optimistic yesterday on round 2 also being big up here, but round 1 has always been the more likely way to get warning level snows in the metro. There's not a lot observational wise that can tell us which outcome is more correct, so we have to go by the overall guidance consensus, which is an upper level pattern evolution less favorable to get round 2 farther north. But on the other hand, aside from the GFS, there has been a general positive trend today for round 1 in the metro.Given some past fairly similar events trending more positive in the near term for what would be round 2, giving some more time on that, but certainly did not trend favorably today.Here's the IL/IN zoom 10:1 ratio snowfall totals from the Euro runs going back to the 00z 1/30, showing that near and southeast of I-55 continues to be most favorable and a better look for northeast Illinois with the unfortunate exception of the far NW burbs.Let me know if you'd like a Kuchera ratio gif or a a gif with a Midwest zoom.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z HRRR with a nearly 12" spread across Cook county. Woof 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ^ wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 43 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Think I may willed this a little too far south after last nights NAM. But I’m with you. It’s all overrunning for here now. Second piece looks like scraps. Only caution flag for MBY is how long does the flip to snow take. Going to waste some QPF on rain, so hopefully that all works out. Right now I’m thinking 6-10” for IKK storm total. Foot possible, but everything needs to break right for that to happen. Regardless, looks like an awesome storm for central iL and IN and on east. Would love to see someone pull a 20 spot out of this… 6-10 is too low. The models have been super consistent with our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The reign of geos is a distant memory 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The reign of geos is a distant memory Hate to see itSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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