michaelmantis Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Anyone know what the NWS uses to compute their "probabilistic" snowfall forecasts? https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter Someone is going to get a surprise out of this storm in N IL, from Rockford to Valpo there is a *huge* cutoff! Enjoy whomever gets the thumping. This winter I consider 3 inches a decent event just to freshen things up. Anything else is bonus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 5:39 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Even on the 12z GFS around 60 it looks like a decent setup but that vortmax comes out of northern Canada and flattens the southern wave like a pancake. Expand I have been watching that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 5:39 PM, mississaugasnow said: Not often I have a chance for over 18" but Im also staying realistic. With so much in the air 4-6" would be alright as it stays looking like winter and builds on snowpack, 6-10" is happy and cant complain at all. Anything over 10" ill be pumped haha. Use this against me if I complain about getting 7" haha Expand Yeah, I mean Wednesday should be a nice shovellable snow. Winter only comes around once a year so it's tough not to get greedy though. But I agree in spirit. Hopefully the EURO holds and keeps the flicker of the Thursday storm alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 5:06 PM, michsnowfreak said: Too many freakouts on both the northern and Southern edge of the snow shield the last 18 hours. No one knows what's going to happen yet. Expand Not a freakout. I have just seen this one too many times to know better. Again see Dec 04, VD 07, March 08, etc, etc. Am I disappointed? Sure. Had figured we were past this kind of model mayham ( especially with the GFS ) to be proven wrong which is irritating in itself. For whatever reason storms of this magnitude keep finding ways to avoid here which yes is disappointing. Nearly everyone in this sub has seen a historic snowstorm total in their back yard in the past 18 years but here over to Detroit and it now looks to repeat it again and for some further south they are about to be visited again by a history making storm . I don't care who it is one has to be disappointed if you fall into the zone of keep getting missed by such storms except you perhaps. Lol Life goes on though. Now for the euro which should be up and running! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 5:38 PM, Hoosier said: Never really done this but I'm sort of segmenting this one in my head. Hyper focused on Tue night into the first part of Wed, and then whatever will be will be. Expand That’s probably the best way to look at it honestly. Most of our snow would come from Tuesday night - Wednesday and very little if anything more after that. Looking at some of 12z operational guidance SLP/Radar make this look like more of a one day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 5:47 PM, Harry said: Not a freakout. I have just seen this one too many times to know better. Again see Dec 04, VD 07, March 08, etc, etc. Am I disappointed? Sure. Had figured we were past this kind of model mayham ( especially with the GFS ) to be proven wrong which is irritating in itself. For whatever reason storms of this magnitude keep finding ways to avoid here which yes is disappointing. Nearly everyone in this sub has seen a historic snowstorm total in their back yard in the past 18 years but here over to Detroit and it now looks to repeat it again and for some further south they are about to be visited again by a history making storm . I don't care who it is one has to be disappointed if you fall into the zone of keep getting missed by such storms except you perhaps. Lol Life goes on though. Now for the euro which should be up and running! Expand Ive had this discussion with Josh more times than the lions have losses the past 20 years. Dont waste your time lol. You wont get him to admit we suck at big dogs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 5:47 PM, Harry said: Not a freakout. I have just seen this one too many times to know better. Again see Dec 04, VD 07, March 08, etc, etc. Am I disappointed? Sure. Had figured we were past this kind of model mayham ( especially with the GFS ) to be proven wrong which is irritating in itself. For whatever reason storms of this magnitude keep finding ways to avoid here which yes is disappointing. Nearly everyone in this sub has seen a historic snowstorm total in their back yard in the past 18 years but here over to Detroit and it now looks to repeat it again and for some further south they are about to be visited again by a history making storm . I don't care who it is one has to be disappointed if you fall into the zone of keep getting missed by such storms except you perhaps. Lol Life goes on though. Now for the euro which should be up and running! Expand Meh I doubt nearly everyone in the sub has seen a historic storm the past 18 years. Although I guess it depends what you deem historic. I did see the biggest single storm total of my life with just under 17" in GHDII. And my comment wasn't aimed at you directly. At 18z yesterday some were fretting NW trends now some fretting SE. It only has so much wiggle room. We are in a good spot. Onto the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 5:47 PM, Harry said: Not a freakout. I have just seen this one too many times to know better. Again see Dec 04, VD 07, March 08, etc, etc. Am I disappointed? Sure. Had figured we were past this kind of model mayham ( especially with the GFS ) to be proven wrong which is irritating in itself. For whatever reason storms of this magnitude keep finding ways to avoid here which yes is disappointing. Nearly everyone in this sub has seen a historic snowstorm total in their back yard in the past 18 years but here over to Detroit and it now looks to repeat it again and for some further south they are about to be visited again by a history making storm . I don't care who it is one has to be disappointed if you fall into the zone of keep getting missed by such storms except you perhaps. Lol Life goes on though. Now for the euro which should be up and running! Expand If there's any solace, there was at least GHD 2 that did the opposite. It had started to trend south at this point on the models, then it corrected back north at the last minute, which ended up being correct. Granted, it was a different setup and not exacly a Jan '67-esque big dog, but my point is I wouldn't completely rule anything out just yet, especially with a +NAO and the jet dynamics at play. It's not like you need this to shift all the way NW from KY/PA, but just a 50-mile shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 One of those rare moments weather wise I'm kind of wishing I was back on campus at Purdue but even now sitting not too bad near I-80 and I-55 corridor. Hoping for a good 8-10 inches but may be wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 5:54 PM, Powerball said: If there's any solace, there was at least GHD 2 that did the opposite. It had started to trend south at this point on the models, then it corrected back north at the last minute, which ended up being correct. Granted, it was a different setup and not exacly a Jan '67-esque big dog, but my point is I wouldn't completely rule anything out just yet, especially with a +NAO and the jet dynamics at play. It's not like you need this to shift all the way NW from KY/PA, but just a 50-mile shift. Expand Jan 2014 also started to shift SE before correcting NW at the last minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro looks like it may tick north or change the band orientation a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z Euro will change the overrunning orientation once again. Not surprising though, as very minor changes has an impact on positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:03 PM, Chicago Storm said: 12z Euro will change the overrunning orientation once again. Not surprising though, as very minor changes has an impact on positioning. Expand Minor change and the N snow line moves 30 miles NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:03 PM, Chicago Storm said: 12z Euro will change the overrunning orientation once again. Not surprising though, as very minor changes has an impact on positioning. Expand Main storm system bumped south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Still manages 6-10" across immediate Chi metro. Alek's call somehow still alive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro is southeast but only very very slightly so, also the high in Canada is weaker which could maybe have it go back northwest a little in future runs? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro still pretty good for the Detroit Metro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:16 PM, AWMT30 said: Euro still pretty good for the Detroit Metro! Expand I think DTX is good at 8-14 for sure, down where I am, I line up with TOL on a SW to NE positive tilt. Thinking 9-18 here. Maybe 20 on the outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Over running becoming the main event for Chicago, but it’s decent 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z euro crushes E Central Illinois and Central Indiana. oops a little behind didn’t see the posts above me pertaining to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Settling on the fact it’s most likely the heaviest snows with this entire event will be just to my south. Still can’t be upset with over a foot though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:15 PM, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Euro is southeast but only very very slightly so, also the high in Canada is weaker which could maybe have it go back northwest a little in future runs? Expand That south trend needs to do a full on reverse starting with the 18z runs and continuing till storm time. If this is to do anything meaningful up this way. Note the lead system and how much stronger it has gotten on modeling ( see GFS etc ) once it heads for and past Hudson bay. That is what is helping to pull everything further south and se. Can only hope the modeling is overdoing that feature. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:26 PM, Harry said: That south trend needs to do a full on reverse starting with the 18z runs and continuing till storm time. If this is to do anything meaningful up this way. Note the lead system and how much stronger it has gotten on modeling ( see GFS etc ) once it heads for and past Hudson bay. That is what is helping to pull everything further south and se. Can only hope the modeling is overdoing that feature. Expand Euro looked very good. Gfs is now the most south. I called it 2 days ago. The North South models swap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:09 PM, Chicago Storm said: Main storm system bumped south. Expand It kinda changed orientation, it was a bit north with the precip shield here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The 12z EURO is also slightly drier. I will make a final call after the 00z run, but the 10-15" prediction I made earlier (with isolated higher amounts) doesn't look too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:24 PM, Chambana said: 12z euro crushes E Central Illinois and Central Indiana. oops a little behind didn’t see the posts above me pertaining to it. Expand ILX is going to get shellacked. It seems like track is relatively consistent, I'm just hoping the warm nose erodes fast enough for us in St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:24 PM, Chambana said: 12z euro crushes E Central Illinois and Central Indiana. oops a little behind didn’t see the posts above me pertaining to it. Expand You said east central, that still include SPI in the highest band? Seen what it did on 10:1 but ratios will be lower at the onset so no clue what Kuchera showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looks like I'm in for advisory level snow. Not worth the reduced business and headaches with the kids schools being closed. I hope the next run bumps north or way south....would rather pass on 3-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Please sir, can you spare a bump or two north? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 6:31 PM, Stebo said: It kinda changed orientation, it was a bit north with the precip shield here Expand Same here. Was expecting the worst but it wasn't as bad as feared. Seems to have the same northward extent as the GEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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