HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 22 minutes ago, Jonger said: I'd rather get missed altogether than the 4 inches the GFS shows for me. 4" and will be bummed too but I rather get that and keep it white out there since we are going to warm up tomorrow. Honestly my hopes are in the 6-8" range or more of course. I definitely want the 20"+ but trying to keep realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS ensembles are honestly all over the place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Happy to pick up what the CMC is putting down with lake enhancement signal likely means 12”+ possible in Cook. Ultimately think it’s overdone but happy to look at it. GFS is overcorrecting South. Euro likely will hold at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z GEFS mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEFS mean Another bump southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Good news is it is running out of time, for the first waves anyway. I'm still a bit pessimistic, been in the bullseye for way too long to stay in it. That just doesn't happen. Like I told you before, you're golden. Enjoy it. You're getting 10 minutes ago, mimillman said: You will be just fine Appreciate the vote in confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 What/who do we have to sacrifice in order to get the 1/29 12z GFS run back? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 At this point I'm just hoping I can manage an inch to make up for the snowmelt tomorrow. Astonishingly awful season here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Lightning said: 4" and will be bummed too but I rather get that and keep it white out there since we are going to warm up tomorrow. Honestly my hopes are in the 6-8" range or more of course. I definitely want the 20"+ but trying to keep realistic. My interests are mostly around snowmobiling. There's very little upside to the storm at this point. 12 to 15 inches hitting corn fields don't do much for me. I'd rather get rain and have west Michigan trails get 15+. I just trailer out, there's nowhere to trailer to besides Canada and they aren't letting anyone in for recreational reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looking at total snow 10-1 12z CMC seems to bump NW compared to 00z? edit: never mind looking back already posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'd be shocked if we don't see some baby step back north, but central IL and NE looks locked for a historic storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Lightning said: 4" and will be bummed too but I rather get that and keep it white out there since we are going to warm up tomorrow. Honestly my hopes are in the 6-8" range or more of course. I definitely want the 20"+ but trying to keep realistic. Not I. I'll pass as well. Keep going south. Models had been behaving so well ( as in more predictable trends ) and now this. Lol Enjoy Indiana and Ohio! This is not coming back north. History making systems never do come back for here atleast. Willing to bet that the Jan 67 ( #1 ) and Jan 78 ( #2 ) records stand for another 100+ years here? Any takers? What a wild ride for sure and nice to see all the old faces pop in. Question now is northern Indiana or Central and same for Ohio? Who is gonna be in that zone? Somebody is getting buried down that way while someone else could be getting a disgusting ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phardy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEFS mean As someone who lives just NW of St Louis I'd like to go ahead and lock this one in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Like I told you before, you're golden. Enjoy it. You're getting Appreciate the vote in confidence 15.5" in the hourly grid. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Harry said: Enjoy Indiana and Ohio! This is not coming back north. History making systems never do come back for here atleast. Willing to bet that the Jan 67 ( #1 ) and Jan 78 ( #2 ) records stand for another 100+ years here? Any takers? Seems like it would take this kind of anomalous gulf moisture + arctic front, but with an actual bomb cyclone rather than this sloppy open wave. A deeper low would hook north and take the heavy snow north with it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Harry said: Not I. I'll pass as well. Keep going south. Models had been behaving so well ( as in more predictable trends ) and now this. Lol Enjoy Indiana and Ohio! This is not coming back north. History making systems never do come back for here atleast. Willing to bet that the Jan 67 ( #1 ) and Jan 78 ( #2 ) records stand for another 100+ years here? Any takers? What a wild ride for sure and nice to see all the old faces pop in. Question now is northern Indiana or Central and same for Ohio? Who is gonna be in that zone? Somebody is getting buried down that way while someone else could be getting a disgusting ice storm. Understood as I know you are in it for the Historic. Jonger is all about the sledding. Josh and I just want it to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Too many freakouts on both the northern and Southern edge of the snow shield the last 18 hours. No one knows what's going to happen yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Lightning said: Understood as I know you are in it for the Historic. Jonger is all about the sledding. Josh and I just want it to snow. Absolutely. I would love a historic storm.. But I love snow. So how can I not be excited? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Thanks for everyone's insights - it's been fun following as a lurker. Question on plumes, and maybe it's user error - the averages in and around Chicago are at ~12". Looking down in central IL/IN where more snow is modeled their averages are the same or less. (ie IKK is about the same as ORD). Is it still too far out to see the full storm totals, or reason for such a large spread still in east-central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 SREF plumes for KDKB go from 0" to 27" hahahaha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Will let this speak for itself. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Jim Martin said: Will let this speak for itself. Trending more my direction on these maps today. (I'm near Akron) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, btcs31 said: Thanks for everyone's insights - it's been fun following as a lurker. Question on plumes, and maybe it's user error - the averages in and around Chicago are at ~12". Looking down in central IL/IN where more snow is modeled their averages are the same or less. (ie IKK is about the same as ORD). Is it still too far out to see the full storm totals, or reason for such a large spread still in east-central IL. Haven't looked but my guess would be there are a significant number of northern members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looking at forecast maps/soundings, you can really see how bone dry the airmass aloft is on the northern end/just north of the progged snows tomorrow night into Wed. The hope for folks there would be that maybe things can saturate a bit better than shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Powerball said: I'm talking about after Wednesday's changeover occurs. I think 3-6" is a pretty safe bet on Wednesday, however this thing being pushed a bit east helps make 4-8" more likely. Still, I'm as confident as you can be that NW Ohio will see 8-16" on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z GEFS mean still more amped up than the OP, but with each of the last 3 runs a few more individual members flip to a more suppressed looking storm. Not sure if those members are also honing into the same potential error as the OP run and things will eventually flip back or if they're the correct ones and the ones still showing an amped solution are late to the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Never really done this but I'm sort of segmenting this one in my head. Hyper focused on Tue night into the first part of Wed, and then whatever will be will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Even on the 12z GFS around 60 it looks like a decent setup but that vortmax comes out of northern Canada and flattens the southern wave like a pancake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Will let this speak for itself. Not often I have a chance for over 18" but Im also staying realistic. With so much in the air 4-6" would be alright as it stays looking like winter and builds on snowpack, 6-10" is happy and cant complain at all. Anything over 10" ill be pumped haha. Use this against me if I complain about getting 7" haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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