magoos0728 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: Under call. 10 still very much doable imo After 5 winters in the Southeast I'm going to be thrilled with anything... especially with the slow start to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looking like the NAM isn't really south, just a different orientation, even gets more snow into Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z NAM will bump south with the main storm.Sizable changes across the Western US with the main trough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 12z NAM will either bump south with the overrunning event or have a slightly different orientation..Can confirm orientation change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM will either bump south with the overrunning event or have a slightly different orientation. . This reminds of a scenario earlier in season where the models struggled with the orientation of snow compared to the SLP.. in a similar set up. There were last minute changes to a more SW to NE trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM will either bump south with the overrunning event or have a slightly different orientation. . Ended up being a tick north in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM will bump south with the main storm. Sizable changes across the Western US with the main trough. . Well it's been fun. Will take my advisory of upslope snows out here and call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Conveyor belt of snow per NAM for SEMI. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I never really pay attention to the NAM unless it's the 18Z run. All in all, sounds fairly bland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baum said: I never really pay attention to the NAM unless it's the 18Z run. All in all, sounds fairly bland. Why 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Central Illinois absolutely buried. Unreal. Someone send this to the kid at LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Pretty dramatic shift on the 12z NAM as it was far too northwest to begin with. I see a compromise between the CMC and the Euro as most likely outcome for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The chase is always better then the catch. This has been awfully fun to track even though I have zero skin in the game. I’d be feeling pretty anxious if I still lived in Lake County IL, but excited to see the totals that come out of central IL. Going to be tough for Chicago to beat out Detroit by 10” this year after this dog comes through. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 yep the folks in Central IL are due and as currently modeled they get buried into Northern IN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I’m almost shaking with anticipation and anxiety. We look locked and loaded for a historic event. The model consistency is just incredible to see. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 21 minutes ago, dmc76 said: Conveyor belt of snow per NAM for SEMI. And the heavier rates were still ongoing at the end of the run, so it would have had more snow to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Central IL can have this one; been locked into a sling since December with a fractured shoulder and can’t get surgery until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I think Kuchera is overdoing it on the totals. I don't have the full Cobb output yet, but I think it's going to be about 15% less. The modeled snow depth is significantly less than what Kuchera is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I just don't know what to think..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Since I’m a novice backyard watcher, I’ll just say IKK has been in, or near, the thick of it on every run from most every model. The consistency leads me to believe that will be the way she goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, mimillman said: Pretty dramatic shift on the 12z NAM as it was far too northwest to begin with. I see a compromise between the CMC and the Euro as most likely outcome for this event. Seasonal snow prediction of 20-25" looks good. Just for RFD not ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 16 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: yep the folks in Central IL are due and as currently modeled they get buried into Northern IN. I'm living on the edge of the monster band I am going to shift that map 15 miles SE plus reduce it by 20% and that would put the far NW Peoria Metro around 8 but the SE about 16 and even more just SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 39 minutes ago, magoos0728 said: After 5 winters in the Southeast I'm going to be thrilled with anything... especially with the slow start to the season. you moved back here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: yep the folks in Central IL are due and as currently modeled they get buried into Northern IN. Gary to Chicago is only 30 miles. Enough room at this time to bump north for larger totals in Chicago if the NAM were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, Chambana said: I’m almost shaking with anticipation and anxiety. We look locked and loaded for a historic event. The model consistency is just incredible to see. For days now Champaign and IKK have been seeing amounts 20-30 inches. Feels like we never left the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 This may have been answered, but when does this thing get on land/which runs will be the first with it on land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 38 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Why 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 and of course 12z RGEM comes north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, Sciascia said: This may have been answered, but when does this thing get on land/which runs will be the first with it on land? Some elements are already on or close to land while others like the tip of the trough which will be playing a role in the cyclogenesis of the low won't hit Baja California until 18Z on Wednesday. All of this according to the NAM anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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