Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I think its still snowing at the end of the run? Most of the recent model runs have the precip ending by Thursday evening. But that EURO run might grind another 1-2" more out on top of what was on that map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 LOT says don’t bank on those fun-looking huge amounts panning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Powerball said: Most if the recent midel runs have the precip ending by Thursday evening Looks like we may be waiting until tonights 0z suite to roll out before booking our flights. Its never easy ehh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Sciascia said: LOT says don’t bank on those fun-looking huge amounts panning out. Ed D. has a point... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 LOT says don’t bank on those fun-looking huge amounts panning out.that is a stupidly dumb post by whoever wrote it.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sciascia said: LOT says don’t bank on those fun-looking huge amounts panning out. "beware of crazy ass social media posts"-LOT 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 They continue… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sciascia said: They continue… The nws dude is dead wrong in regards to snow totals. He is equating snow depth with snow totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 This nwschicago employee wasnt ready for all the weenies to come at them this morning. Diggin a deeper hole. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 lol weenie.gif'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: This nwschicago employee wasnt ready for all the weenies to come at them this morning. Diggin a deeper hole. It's not even about being a weenie though. They're just loud and wrong. @michsnowfreak you see this shit? @RCNYILWX come get your coworker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Powerball said: It's not even about being a weenie though. They're just loud and wrong. @michsnowfreak you see this shit? @RCNYILWX @OHweather come get your coworker. Its gotta surprise the nws mets how many real weather nerds/snowstorm nerds there really are out there. Sometimes when they're writing their AFd's and social media posts, I think that they forget that a large number of people actually read them lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, ILSNOW said: 6z GEFS Not a good sign to see the GEFS shift south like the op GFS, if there's hoping it was a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Not a good sign to see the GEFS shift south like the op GFS, if there's hoping it was a fluke. The GEFS however only shifted like 25 miles compared to the massive operational run. Guess we'll see at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 26 minutes ago, Jonger said: My comment was a bit of an overreaction. 6 years of struggling to crack 6 inches gets to you. We've had multiple 8+ storms the last 6 years. However 6 years ago is when our epic stretch of winters gave way to more normal winters unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The GEFS however only shifted like 25 miles compared to the massive operational run. Guess we'll see at 12Z True, but also take into consideration it was always NW of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It's not even about being a weenie though. They're just loud and wrong. [mention=276]michsnowfreak[/mention] you see this shit? [mention=3997]RCNYILWX[/mention] come get your coworker.Two points I'd make:1) I wouldn't have framed the tweet like that. I would've urged caution at the maps because a. they are based on an algorithm that doesn't account for important factors that determine SLR and how much snow falls, and also don't adequately account for sleetb. they include snow from a second part of the event that's still uncertain at this time2) On the issue of snow amount vs snow depth, we're inconsistent on it. The official sites use 6-hour board clearing methods to lessen the effect of compaction, but also arguably inflate totals above what most in the general public would witness, which is snow depth. COOP and CoCoRaHS observers aren't required to measure more than once in 24 hours.Some observers, especially CoCoRaHS, will measure and report more frequently during a storm. Most COOP observers emphatically don't measure frequently, since many of them are now at water plants and other public works buildings. This can create inconsistency between amounts being reported, and the 24 hour measurement will essentially be reporting snow depth.Because of all this, I wouldn't have waded into the waters of snow amount vs snow depth and instead focused on point 1 as the reason to not get too caught up in individual model run snow totals. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: We've had multiple 8+ storms the last 6 years. However 6 years ago is when our epic stretch of winters gave way to more normal winters unfortunately. I was trying to find the NWS news archives, but locally I don't think I have had the same luck as downriver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Powerball said: It's not even about being a weenie though. They're just loud and wrong. @michsnowfreak you see this shit? @RCNYILWX come get your coworker. It's ridiculous. And Also a reminder. Regardless of how much ends up falling, this will be a long duration event. What that means is when you wake up Friday morning and the snow has ended, sticking a yard stick, measuring depth, and calling it total is underdone. Just like how lake effect snow and big East Coast storms always see the depth less than the total fall after 2 days, that's what we will see. You measure every 6 hours. Also have to take into account drifting as well as whatever old snow remains on the ground. Definitely have to be on your toes when measuring this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Two points I'd make: 1) I wouldn't have framed the tweet like that. I would've urged caution at the maps because a. they are based on an algorithm that doesn't account for important factors that determine SLR and how much snow falls b. they include snow from a second part of the event that's still uncertain at this time 2) On the issue of snow amount vs snow depth, we're inconsistent on it. The official sites use 6-hour board clearing methods to lessen the effect of compaction, but also arguably inflate totals above what most in the general public would witness, which is snow depth. COOP and CoCoRaHS observers aren't required to measure more than once in 24 hours. Some observers, especially CoCoRaHS, will measure and report more frequently during a storm. Most COOP observers emphatically don't measure frequently, since many of them are now at water plants and other public works buildings. This can create inconsistency between amounts being reported, and the 24 hour measurement will essentially be reporting snow depth. Because of all this, I wouldn't have waded into the waters of snow amount vs snow depth and instead focused on point 1 as the reason to not get too caught up in individual model run snow totals. I figured they would have at least corrected themselves when the 1st person questioned their original tweet. But instead, they dug in their heels and doubled down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jonger said: I was trying to find the NWS news archives, but locally I don't think I have had the same luck as downriver. Here's my 6+ since our epic stretch ended after the winter of 14-15. 15-16: none (biggest 5.0) 16-17: 10.9" Dec 11/12 17-18: 6.5" Dec 13/14...9.3" Feb 9 18-19: 6.1" Jan 19 19-20: 8.5" Nov 11/12...7.0" Jan 20...6.0" Feb 25/26 20-21: 11.0" Feb 15/16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Here's my 6+ since our epic stretch ended after the winter of 14-15. 15-16: none (biggest 5.0) 16-17: 10.9" Dec 11/12 17-18: 6.5" Dec 13/14...9.3" Feb 9 18-19: 6.1" Jan 19 19-20: 8.5" Nov 11/12...7.0" Jan 20...6.0" Feb 25/26 20-21: 11.0" Feb 15/16 Feb 15/16 2021 actually first came to my mind as a possible analog for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Two points I'd make: 1) I wouldn't have framed the tweet like that. I would've urged caution at the maps because a. they are based on an algorithm that doesn't account for important factors that determine SLR and how much snow falls, and also don't adequately account for sleet b. they include snow from a second part of the event that's still uncertain at this time 2) On the issue of snow amount vs snow depth, we're inconsistent on it. The official sites use 6-hour board clearing methods to lessen the effect of compaction, but also arguably inflate totals above what most in the general public would witness, which is snow depth. COOP and CoCoRaHS observers aren't required to measure more than once in 24 hours. Some observers, especially CoCoRaHS, will measure and report more frequently during a storm. Most COOP observers emphatically don't measure frequently, since many of them are now at water plants and other public works buildings. This can create inconsistency between amounts being reported, and the 24 hour measurement will essentially be reporting snow depth. Because of all this, I wouldn't have waded into the waters of snow amount vs snow depth and instead focused on point 1 as the reason to not get too caught up in individual model run snow totals. These are all valid points. But again. The tweet flat out said don't expect these amounts because of compaction. Again, whenever you see reports of a major lake effect snow event in Marquette or Buffalo or of an East Coast snowstorm they say how much fell. They don't say "but there's actually XX on the ground". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Feb 15/16 2021 actually first came to my mind as a possible analog for this storm. Jan 5 2014 for me. Heres to hoping a nw jog within 48 hrs like that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Here's my 6+ since our epic stretch ended after the winter of 14-15. 15-16: none (biggest 5.0) 16-17: 10.9" Dec 11/12 17-18: 6.5" Dec 13/14...9.3" Feb 9 18-19: 6.1" Jan 19 19-20: 8.5" Nov 11/12...7.0" Jan 20...6.0" Feb 25/26 20-21: 11.0" Feb 15/16 My area has also had many 6"+ storms. There is something different about Howell area. While I am in the same county the Howell area is impacted by storms differently (i.e. Jonger). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Lightning said: My area has also had many 6"+ storms. There is something different about Howell area. While I am in the same county the Howell area is impacted by storms differently (i.e. Jonger). I only got 5" Nov 21 2015 when you and jonger got slammed. It was gorgeous scenic snow but a big miss of heavier totals (and I forgot I had a 5.5 snow in Feb 16 oops. I was going by memory lol). I've been measuring snow since 95-96. The only winters without a 6+ storm: 96-97, 97-98, 99-00, 03-04, 11-12 & 15-16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 down time on the board before next model cycle. How bout some entertainment for the Chicago folks: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 24 minutes ago, Powerball said: I figured they would have at least corrected themselves when the 1st person questioned their original tweet. But instead, they dug in their heels and doubled down. Kinda like DDC did when they were called out for that unwarned EF2 tornado a few years ago. NWS has gotten bad lately. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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