Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 . 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z RGEM with a big jump north with the main storm system, but still south of the GFS/NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:12 AM, Chicago Storm said: . Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM plz be right. I don't wanna go to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 @IllinoisWedges tonight IMG_6934.MP4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:17 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z RGEM with a big jump north with the main storm system, but still south of the GFS/NAM. Expand What the hell happened to the ukmet? Its been way way south the whole time. Did they run some kind of update on it and now its scores arent as good? I remember it having the best verification scores as recent as last yr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:21 AM, hlcater said: @IllinoisWedges tonight IMG_6934.MP4Fetching info... Expand Gonna have to revise the 0" call back to 20". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I would sell my soul for 0z nam to verify. But it's long range nam so I know it's unlikely and it loves to overamp systems. At this point any one model solution is still possible but definitely a north trend today. Curious to see if this holds tomorrow or if we go back to shifting south again. This system is whiplash on my emotions. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 @snowstormcanuck On 1/31/2022 at 3:11 AM, snowstormcanuck said: minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: You think that's a risk here? Anything's possible but even this amped NAM run extrapolated I think would keep us all snow. Regardless if it's a northern camp or southern camp model, they all agree there won't be much phasing with the northern stream. It will eventually shear off to the east and press the arctic front southwards. It's just the northern models amplify the southern stream wave more robustly initially which allows things to go further north with the storm before that shearing process begins. There are a few EURO and GFS ensemble members which are warmer so you never know. But right now my money's on snow. Expand Oh sorry not for GTA risk is a bit bigger for Niagara Falls Ontario/New York I meant back across Texas-WNY. Whoever is just south of the snow and that exact placement I don’t think we know until now casting. I can see a scenario where it’s snow in Buffalo but 15 miles SE it’s an Ice Storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:21 AM, Stevo6899 said: What the hell happened to the ukmet? Its been way way south the whole time. Did they run some kind of update on it and now its scores arent as good? I remember it having the best verification scores as recent as last yr. Expand My theory is that the UKMET scores are made up, because whenever it's way out to lunch (several times per winter between the Midwest and East Coast) and I think to myself "well maybe it's on to something because it's the second best verifying global model overall" it ends up being entirely wrong. Current GFS and Euro a decent starting point IMO, with my general thought being modest north bumps are more likely than south bumps from where we're at currently. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:21 AM, Stevo6899 said: What the hell happened to the ukmet? Its been way way south the whole time. Did they run some kind of update on it and now its scores arent as good? I remember it having the best verification scores as recent as last yr. Expand Intriguing question, and not one that's easy to answer. For the month of December, the model was a narrow third-place in RMSE through Day 5 (behind the ECMWF and GFS), though interestingly enough by Hour 144 the UKMET actually was slightly more accurate than the ECMWF. Experts in the modeling field could answer much better than myself but from the data I see, while it hasn't taken the way of the JMA (hopelessly lost), it seems it performs best beyond Day 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:25 AM, StormChaser4Life said: I would sell my soul for 0z nam to verify. But it's long range nam so I know it's unlikely and it loves to overamp systems. At this point any one model solution is still possible but definitely a north trend today. Curious to see if this holds tomorrow or if we go back to shifting south again. This system is whiplash on my emotions. Lol Expand You can go ahead and do a temporary change to your profile pic. You're Golden, trust me 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Seeing as this is GHD III, this system will surely wind up needing (at least) a third thread. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:37 AM, WeatherMonger said: You can go ahead and do a temporary change to your profile pic. You're Golden, trust me Expand LOL. I wouldn't worry man. I honestly still think you're fine man. Don't let NAM worry you. GFS and Euro wallop you. I wouldn't be shocked if this trends south again. Anything is still on the table. I still think you're in a better position than me imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:30 AM, OHweather said: My theory is that the UKMET scores are made up, because whenever it's way out to lunch (several times per winter between the Midwest and East Coast) and I think to myself "well maybe it's on to something because it's the second best verifying global model overall" it ends up being entirely wrong. Current GFS and Euro a decent starting point IMO, with my general thought being modest north bumps are more likely than south bumps from where we're at currently. Expand Agree and have to remember too this is starting in some placed in less than 48 hours. The clock is running out for anything other than noise level changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Famous last words 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:44 AM, Stebo said: Agree and have to remember too this is starting in some placed in less than 48 hours. The clock is running out for anything other than noise level changes. Expand For the overrunning event, yes. But the main storm system isn't really until later Wednesday night into Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS rolling.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:21 AM, Stevo6899 said: What the hell happened to the ukmet? Its been way way south the whole time. Did they run some kind of update on it and now its scores arent as good? I remember it having the best verification scores as recent as last yr. Expand The UKMET actually had a few good performances last winter, as did the Canadian duo. The UKMET has been horrendous this winter though. Unsure if they performed any 'upgrades' or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z GFS might tick south with the overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:42 AM, StormChaser4Life said: LOL. I wouldn't worry man. I honestly still think you're fine man. Don't let NAM worry you. GFS and Euro wallop you. I wouldn't be shocked if this trends south again. Anything is still on the table. I still think you're in a better position than me imo. Expand If only I was an optimist I'll take an inch of rain and 2" snow over sleet and ice in any amounts. This is going to end up an I-74 to I-80 special in IL. Gotta get the SE MI screwzone in somehow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:47 AM, Chicago Storm said: For the overrunning event, yes. But the main storm system isn't really until later Wednesday night into Thursday. Expand True but the overrunning event is setting the train tracks down for the 2nd part to ride up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:52 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS might tick south with the overrunning event. Expand Confirmed tick south and wetter for overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:52 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS might tick south with the overrunning event. Expand Changes at least at the surface are pretty minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:53 AM, WeatherMonger said: If only I was an optimist I'll take an inch of rain and 2" snow over sleet and ice in any amounts. This is going to end up an I-74 to I-80 special in IL. Gotta get the SE MI screwzone in somehow Expand How bout the SE MI snow magnet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS looks like it ticked south with the main system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The tiniest tick southeast with the main event. Energy looks to dig a bit less at 500mb, think that’s what caused it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 4:02 AM, Powerball said: GFS looks like it ticked south with the main system. Expand On 1/31/2022 at 4:03 AM, mimillman said: The tiniest tick southeast with the main event. Energy looks to dig a bit less at 500mb, think that’s what caused it? Expand Different orientation. Storm itself was a bump NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 That looks like close to 36” in east central IL to NW IN, north of LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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