Syrmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: BTW, all of it falls by hour 84. Not sure why I pulled hour 102. It’s late… 0Z Euro is a pretty good compromise among the various model options from what I've seen. I think ratios will be problematic. Thinking 10:1 is about good for snow. I wouldnt go higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 While the 6z GFS was a tick NW it remains the coldest solution and probably would offer the best ratios and least risk for mixing. Consensus seems closer but that’s always a dicey game… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Then there is rgem and nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GEFS is a bullseye over BUF, ROC and SYR up through the Tug and ADK. Let’s go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 A few thoughts... This will be historic....for places like St. Louis, mid south (AR, KY, etc.) for snow and significant ice. For here, this will be a long duration event, where the band of snowfall sets up.. Snowfall rates will be light to moderate throughout the duration.....dendrite size, ATT, look average to below average (as several posters have mentioned, omega within the DGZ, is not great, as modeled now). This should not be an extremely high impact event, relative to travel....8-14" over 24-36 hrs. is almost pedestrian around here...or it used to be, lol! And of course, there will be a sharp cut off (snowfall wise) somewhere between CNY and the Catskills. Again, for where the snow zone sets up, it will be a wonderful winter scene for a solid day or so! Last thought....watch out for next Sunday-Monday.... 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yeah. Gotta like the tick north on the GFS. The bleeding has stopped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Seen that on gfs. Little coastal pops up. Febuary is looking very active and cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Yeah. Gotta like the tick north on the GFS. The bleeding has stopped? Maybe gfs comes back north next day or so. Rgem and nam are much father north. But oddly all give us same amount of snow. Atleast in buffalo roc area. Hrrr and rap are farther north as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Maybe gfs comes back north next day or so. Rgem and nam are much father north. But oddly all give us same amount of snow. Atleast in buffalo roc area. Hrrr and rap are farther north as well. In one case you kiss the taint and her higher rates. The other higher ratios. It’s a good place to be as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Think key to are getting higher totals is where the best snow from both wave overlap. Hopefully we iron that out in next few model runs. Energy out west us coming ashore tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Like here in nw ohio northern indiana Gfs and euro had been showing this for days out here then started to diverge northeast of here over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Its almost a perfect zone chicago on far north side Indianapolis on far south side. We shall see but I feel gfs will tic north today particularly with second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looks like the NWS has not moved off their accumulations at this time. If the trend holds we might see an 8-12 instead of 12-18”. My first thought is about a foot at KBUF for the event a little more towards Lake Ontario due to enhancement and more in the hills to the south. Might be looking at 4”per 12/hour period which may not meet the Winter Storm Warning criteria however the total amount will. Interesting 24 hours ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looks like the NWS has not moved off their accumulations at this time. If the trend holds we might see an 8-12 instead of 12-18”. My first thought is about a foot at KBUF for the event a little more towards Lake Ontario due to enhancement and more in the hills to the south. Might be looking at 4”per 12/hour period which may not meet the Winter Storm Warning criteria however the total amount will. Interesting 24 hours ahead. Hey just a few days ago we thought this week would be a thaw with 50s and rain. Even 8-12” would be a delight with the pack we already have and the temps forecasted to stay cold even after the storm with more possibilities for snow next week.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 37 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Hey just a few days ago we thought this week would be a thaw with 50s and rain. Even 8-12” would be a delight with the pack we already have and the temps forecasted to stay cold even after the storm with more possibilities for snow next week.. Yeah no complaint for sure. I think I’m just channeling my inner Dave and tempering expectations in the hopes of overachieving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 to 12 seems good. Take it and get to average for season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: 8 to 12 seems good. Take it and get to average for season It's incredible given where we were modeled a week ago (I was ready to make a tee time). And further, the first 'punch' has trended weaker - so if we would have lost the second one, this could have been really ugly. Not that anything is a slam dunk - but 8" and a beautifully snowy Thursday and Thursday night would be a MAJOR win! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Curious how well rgem does. Thats the sharpest cut off I have ever seen. And its been consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yep! I agree with these sentiments. It’s nearly impossible to imagine we’d be here given the forecasts, the terrible December, etc. etc. This winter is working it’s way into my heart. There were desperate moments, frustration and defeatism and yet we might come out on top. All things considered, it feels like a miracle! Especially for my ski trip. Lol I’m pretty bullish despite the trends of lower QPF. 12” entire thruway corridor Erie to Rome. Lollipops of 16” along the south shores of both lakes if we can get this to spin a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6z 10:1 map. Keeps eating away at QPF. First wave is NW. Second comes right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: 6z 10:1 map. Keeps eating away at QPF. First wave is NW. Second comes right over us. Yeah. It’s become predominantly the second wave. It’s not the worst case. That first wave was really going to struggle to meet the cold air in time. And it also ran the risk of suppressing the second and better wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This is coming towards my thoughts i stated a few days ago. First wave buf to art second wave further south. Generally looks like a 6-12” event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 These anafrontal things seemingly always trend to juicy frontal passages that are unremarkable. There are exceptions but not something to bank on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 My call for Toronto is now 4". I think we miss the main storm on Thursday, and the changeover from rain to snow is later than expected on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of western and north central New York Wednesday night through the first half of Friday. Some trends of note showing up in latest guidance, but not enough to alter the going watch attm as there could be at least 9" in 24 hours. Overall the large scale pattern and expectations remain the same. Sfc low crossing northern Quebec late tonight will push a cold front slowly into western NY Wednesday night. This will provide the track for multiple waves aloft to lift across the lower Great Lakes and Northeast in deep southwest flow aloft. First stronger wave arrives later Wednesday night with some potential for wintry mix into Southern Tier. As boundary continues to slide eastward across rest of forecast area, next stronger wave then lifts northeast along it for Thursday night. Main change in the guidance right now is that second wave and associated sfc-H85 low track more south and southeast compared to previous runs especially in the GFS and ECMWF runs, but in reality this is not that different from what some models were showing a couple days ago. As mentioned yesterday, stronger shortwave that will spin up the main low-level wave later Thursday is still digging south along west coast today and will not be fully onshore over southwest CONUS until Wed, so as we are seeing now, there most likely will continue to be shifts in the track of the system impacting the zone of heaviest snow and where any mix occurs. One item to emphasize with this upcoming event is it will be longer duration, spread over 24-36 hours. At this point, rates even during the heaviest snow, likely only top out 0.5-1.0 inch per hour. Given the lack of very strong lift and forcing throughout, not expecting the type of snowfall rates we experienced with the last widespread synoptic event mid January. The period of heaviest snow looks to occur Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, setting up the Thursday evening commute to see the greatest widespread impact from the event. Do watch that morning commute on Thursday as well though as even though snow amounts by daybreak Thursday will only be a few inches at most, the SLRs of that snow will be wetter (<10:1) so the impact could be higher. Given the overall southern trend shown, not going to mention much in way of wintry mix other than what could occur over Southern Tier briefly on Wednesday night. Majority of widespread snow diminishes early on Friday though some light to moderate lake effect may linger into the afternoon. If the farther south trend holds, then the widespread snow and/or lake effect snow could diminish as early as early Friday morning. Forecast will lean on continuity though and keep lower end likely pops even over western NY through daybreak Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said: My call for Toronto is now 4". I think we miss the main storm on Thursday, and the changeover from rain to snow is later than expected on Wednesday. Ya, mostly just replaces whatever snow melts from today-tomorrow. lol I hope whatever storm @LakeEffectKingmentioned stays suppressed as Im not home this weekend haha YYZ/Toronto is 2-3" Hamilton 3-5" Buffalo 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 00Z Euro looks good for most of us, other than ENY but keeps us out of the game for any Sun-Mon storm (coastal snowbelts only). 00Z/06Z GooFuS trying hard to take our snow away for Thursday but keeps us in play for Sun-Mon. Choose your poison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 NAM is a very snowy run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: NAM is a very snowy run. Let's see if rgem caves too. Nam is kinda more in line with globals now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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