BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 @MJO812 You're already at your seasonal average for the year, stop sad facing the model runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, sferic said: Dave, Why and when should Kuchera be used as opposed to 10:1? Forgive me if I asked this awhile back My name is Rich but I'm posting Kuchera because I want @tombo82685 to me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, sferic said: Dave, Why and when should Kuchera be used as opposed to 10:1? Forgive me if I asked this awhile back Never. Lol. JK. In my humble opinion it should only be used for lake effect and very rarely in synoptic situations. 10:1 is a great rule of thumb in synoptic storms. Maybe tack on a little. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS That's quite a difference for the GEFS from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My name is Rich but I'm posting Kuchera because I want @tombo82685 to me Shameless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 UK. Is Boston really going to jackpot in back to back storms? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Never. Lol. JK. In my humble opinion it should only be used for lake effect and very rarely in synoptic situations. 10:1 is a great rule of thumb in synoptic storms. Maybe tack on a little. Well it depends there are many cold synoptic systems. The last one that hit Boston averaged 1:15-1:17. You can't just apply 10:1 to all synoptic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Well it depends there are many cold synoptic systems. The last one that hit Boston averaged 1:15-1:17. You can't just apply 10:1 to all synoptic storms. The 10:1 maps verified much better in almost every area outside of that deformation band in Boston. But point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Well it depends there are many cold synoptic systems. The last one that hit Boston averaged 1:15-1:17. You can't just apply 10:1 to all synoptic storms. nope you can't thats why you look at soundings to see if it supports higher ratios. Last I checked there wasn't much omega in the DGZ to really support good ratios and also on the warmer guidance, mids are warm. You also have to remember the weenie hand book, I believe it's rule number 1. Always post the snow map that has the most snow for your back yard whether its 10-1 or kuchera 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My name is Tim but I'm posting Kuchera because I want @tombo82685 to me FYP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The 10:1 maps verified much better in almost every area outside of that deformation band in Boston. But point taken. I disagree. The deformation band had the sloppiest snow vs areas NW as it was closest to the area of low pressure. The band in Connecticut was like 1:18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: nope you can't thats why you look at soundings to see if it supports higher ratios. Last I checked there wasn't much omega in the DGZ to really support good ratios and also on the warmer guidance, mids are warm. You also have to remember the weenie hand book, I believe it's rule number 1. Always post the snow map that has the most snow for your back yard whether its 10-1 or kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, tombo82685 said: nope you can't thats why you look at soundings to see if it supports higher ratios. Last I checked there wasn't much omega in the DGZ to really support good ratios and also on the warmer guidance, mids are warm. You also have to remember the weenie hand book, I believe it's rule number 1. Always post the snow map that has the most snow for your back yard whether its 10-1 or kuchera Not me. In my weenie days of yore I would have done that...but now I know the truth. 6:1 Ratio maps here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: FYP and centered right on monroe county 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think you’ve got a little crush 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: UK. Is Boston really going to jackpot in back to back storms? No. Any people with that kind of accent deserves a shit sandwich. And hold the bread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Lol, frontal systems suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 My guess is BGM will issue a Winter Storm Watch for "6 or more inches" for their CNY counties in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Not me. In my weenie days of yore I would have done that...but now I know the truth. 6:1 Ratio maps here. Go 8:1 and that should be about right with this one. Kind of a hand waving approach to account for either PL or lousy snow growth due to mismatched Omega w/ DGZ. Entirely possible with this dying system moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ukmet i feel used to be better i feel. But I guess this is why its called the drunk uncle to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 EURO rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Wave in texas looks juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Very similar to 12z thru 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Gonna be a nice run for most everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looks like 10 to 12 at 10 to 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Plus it gives Syracuse a little breathing room. Solid run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Pulled back on QPF due to being less amped. Heights are lower in the east. Less of a riding LP and more of a weak wave. Still a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Plus it gives Syracuse a little breathing room. Solid run. Yep, looks like ~8" SYR area. Pretty solid for BUF ROC SYR. BGM and ALB get a few inches and probably a lot of mix. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Solid with ratios. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 BTW, all of it falls by hour 84. Not sure why I pulled hour 102. It’s late… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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