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Model Mayhem Snowstorm! 2/2-2/4


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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

True. I just hate that it's showing that ugly downsloping for this area.

Looks like chances for you may be increasing as well.

GFS tends to overdo the downsloping for ENY (as well as not handling effects of terrain too well overall here), but you know your area much better than I do.  How does Syracuse usually downslope...off the Tug?

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Takes certain conditions ne wind but  Oswego county can downslope hard.

2 minutes ago, Stash said:

GFS tends to overdo the downsloping for ENY (as well as not handling effects of terrain too well overall here), but you know your area much better than I do.  How does Syracuse usually downslope...off the Tug?

 

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Just now, Stash said:

GFS tends to overdo the downsloping for ENY (as well as not handling effects of terrain too well overall here), but you know your area much better than I do.  How does Syracuse usually downslope...off the Tug?

Yeah, NE winds off the Tug can lead to downsloping here. The local posters on here said that we don't usually downslope, but I have seen it a couple times. These SWFEs seem to have increased chances of it. Last February's storm was awful with downsloping here, while the southern part of Onondaga county wasn't affected. It affects Oswego county much worse. If the winds are weak, the impact can be very minimal for further south down here. In Onondaga county, it seems our friend in Brewerton (the northern tip of the county) has seen downsloping during synoptic events the most.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, NE winds off the Tug can lead to downsloping here. The local posters on here said that we don't usually downslope, but I have seen it a couple times. These SWFEs seem to have increased chances of it. Last February's storm was awful with downsloping here, while the southern part of Onondaga county wasn't affected. It affects Oswego county much worse. If the winds are weak, the impact can be very minimal for further south down here. In Onondaga county, it seems our friend in Brewerton (the northern tip of the county) has seen downsloping during synoptic events the most.

I have seen it even affect eastern wayne county.

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15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, NE winds off the Tug can lead to downsloping here. The local posters on here said that we don't usually downslope, but I have seen it a couple times. These SWFEs seem to have increased chances of it. Last February's storm was awful with downsloping here, while the southern part of Onondaga county wasn't affected. It affects Oswego county much worse. If the winds are weak, the impact can be very minimal for further south down here. In Onondaga county, it seems our friend in Brewerton (the northern tip of the county) has seen downsloping during synoptic events the most.

Could be wrong but i'm Not feeling a major downslope concern with this storm. If any, i suspect it will be more subtle than pronounced. Will higher elevations get more qpf? Sure. They usually do. I haven't dove into models yet as it's too far out. Maybe Tombo has.

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Could be wrong but i'm Not feeling a major downslope concern with this storm. If any, i suspect it will be more subtle than pronounced. Will higher elevations get more qpf? Sure. They usually do. I haven't dove into models yet as it's too far out. Maybe Tombo has.

I can see that being true. That's lots of moisture riding in. The GFS does reduce that amount pretty drastically, but we'll see.

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