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Model Mayhem Snowstorm! 2/2-2/4


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22 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah you and me both. I'm not an expert, but if the model outputs are correct, I think we get more sleet vs freezing rain as it stands now. There seems to be a few hour window where the models are suggesting its predominently freezing rain and then it switches to sleet and eventually snow. During the window of freezing rain, the surface temps seem to be hovering around 30-32 which may limit the accretion to some extent. There a bunch of other factors that go into trying to accurately predict ice accretion too (dew point, pavement temps, precip rates etc).

Despite the warmer temps today, everything (ground, trees, etc) are about as frigid as they get around here.  Thankfully, there has to be a pretty unique set of parameters holding steady for many hours to create a dangerous ice storm (I.e. freezing rain vs. sleet) and that doesn't seem very common around here.  Maybe all the hills and valleys help mix the air unlike the broad sloping but generally “flat” St. Lawrence Valley?  I’m not really concerned about slippery ground - more about weight building up on trees and structures. 
 

I recall steady light rain at 18° during my senior year up in Potsdam.  Instant ice rink everywhere.  Thankfully it didn’t last long.  

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18 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

BGM and ALB mets gonna earn their pay for this storm as far as southern tier and Capital District goes. Definitely shaping up to be the nowcasting capital of this storm.

I could see i-88 between the two locations as a battleground between snow and ice. Blending euro and gfs gives me a lot of sleet. I can't actually remember the last time I had a big sleet storm. You'd have to think at some point the climate will even itself out, and somehow get it to snow in ENY again this season.

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Looks like quite a bit of ice and slop for us herein the HV Friday. I guess I am not coming into the warehouse that day.

Long range looks cold based on the GFS which is good.. more chances at statewide snow hopefully. Happy you guys are getting hammered. ADK and Tug still need more snow, moreso ADK. Helps the businesses that's for sure.

The last time I golfed I used two boxes of balls, I dont think that's supposed to happen.:lol:

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Just now, Stash said:

I could see i-88 between the two locations as a battleground between snow and ice. Blending euro and gfs gives me a lot of sleet. I can't actually remember the last time I had a big sleet storm. You'd have to think at some point the climate will even itself out, and somehow get it to snow in ENY again this season.

I spied a forecast down in SE Missouri area last night, or near there, that had them with 1-2" of sleet. That's a lot.

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23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

45 yesterday and 43 today both sunny days too. Going for my first run outside in over a month today.

Same here. I've enjoyed jogging outside this week. That's shut down for at least another 2 weeks soon.

I'm getting those looking at long-range models and wishing it was March feels.

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3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

I spied a forecast down in SE Missouri area last night, or near there, that had them with 1-2" of sleet. That's a lot.

That's a back breaking amount of sleet to shovel. Some areas of ENY had several inches of sleet in the Valentine's Day storm in 07, but it was mostly heavy snow in this area from ALB on north.

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29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

45 yesterday and 43 today both sunny days too. Going for my first run outside in over a month today.

 

2 minutes ago, Leelee said:

Same here. I've enjoyed jogging outside this week. That's shut down for at least another 2 weeks soon.

I'm getting those looking at long-range models and wishing it was March feels.

I've been running in the morning below zero...come on guys... ;)

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4 minutes ago, Leelee said:

Same here. I've enjoyed jogging outside this week. That's shut down for at least another 2 weeks soon.

I'm getting those looking at long-range models and wishing it was March feels.

Yeah next week GFS drops the PV over us again. I think come March I'll be content with this winter.

gfs_T850_us_37.png

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