tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I believe it’s based off the same software as the GFS. Just with better resolution. So as good as it gets. Is it good. Honestly don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Is it good. Honestly don't know. It did pretty good with the EC storm- from what I recall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Pretty quiet in here. We’ve had times where a 8-12” would have us swinging from the rafters. BufWX must’ve found a new hobby? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Pretty quiet in here. We’ve had times where a 8-12” would have us swinging from the rafters. BufWX must’ve found a new hobby? Think he is skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 Z Canadian says "keep the faith Toronto". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah you and me both. I'm not an expert, but if the model outputs are correct, I think we get more sleet vs freezing rain as it stands now. There seems to be a few hour window where the models are suggesting its predominently freezing rain and then it switches to sleet and eventually snow. During the window of freezing rain, the surface temps seem to be hovering around 30-32 which may limit the accretion to some extent. There a bunch of other factors that go into trying to accurately predict ice accretion too (dew point, pavement temps, precip rates etc). Despite the warmer temps today, everything (ground, trees, etc) are about as frigid as they get around here. Thankfully, there has to be a pretty unique set of parameters holding steady for many hours to create a dangerous ice storm (I.e. freezing rain vs. sleet) and that doesn't seem very common around here. Maybe all the hills and valleys help mix the air unlike the broad sloping but generally “flat” St. Lawrence Valley? I’m not really concerned about slippery ground - more about weight building up on trees and structures. I recall steady light rain at 18° during my senior year up in Potsdam. Instant ice rink everywhere. Thankfully it didn’t last long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS looks fantastic so far. Better with Wave 1. (rainbow fart) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Pretty cool how the higher res is picking up the lake enhancement south of Lake Ontario 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Noted, Will do. Maybe this isn’t the best community then for me. Sorry for causing such a stir You're fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 BGM and ALB mets gonna earn their pay for this storm as far as southern tier and Capital District goes. Definitely shaping up to be the nowcasting capital of this storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: Noted, Will do. Maybe this isn’t the best community then for me. Sorry for causing such a stir You're fine Tombo. Not sure why Dave called you out. Tim Trolls all over the board and hes never called him out. Just mute him and move on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS looks good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Feels nice out.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 GEM is slightly SE from last nights run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Feels nice out.. 45 yesterday and 43 today both sunny days too. Going for my first run outside in over a month today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 45 yesterday and 43 today both sunny days too. Going for my first run outside in over a month today. Shorts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: BGM and ALB mets gonna earn their pay for this storm as far as southern tier and Capital District goes. Definitely shaping up to be the nowcasting capital of this storm. I could see i-88 between the two locations as a battleground between snow and ice. Blending euro and gfs gives me a lot of sleet. I can't actually remember the last time I had a big sleet storm. You'd have to think at some point the climate will even itself out, and somehow get it to snow in ENY again this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Looks like quite a bit of ice and slop for us herein the HV Friday. I guess I am not coming into the warehouse that day. Long range looks cold based on the GFS which is good.. more chances at statewide snow hopefully. Happy you guys are getting hammered. ADK and Tug still need more snow, moreso ADK. Helps the businesses that's for sure. The last time I golfed I used two boxes of balls, I dont think that's supposed to happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Stash said: I could see i-88 between the two locations as a battleground between snow and ice. Blending euro and gfs gives me a lot of sleet. I can't actually remember the last time I had a big sleet storm. You'd have to think at some point the climate will even itself out, and somehow get it to snow in ENY again this season. I spied a forecast down in SE Missouri area last night, or near there, that had them with 1-2" of sleet. That's a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, CoolMikeWx said: The last time I golfed I used two boxes of balls, I dont think that's supposed to happen. Lol!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Gotta love the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Here was 12z gfs 10:1 non-sleet, sleet and zr outputs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Shorts? With how cold its been I probably could swing it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 45 yesterday and 43 today both sunny days too. Going for my first run outside in over a month today. Same here. I've enjoyed jogging outside this week. That's shut down for at least another 2 weeks soon. I'm getting those looking at long-range models and wishing it was March feels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I spied a forecast down in SE Missouri area last night, or near there, that had them with 1-2" of sleet. That's a lot. That's a back breaking amount of sleet to shovel. Some areas of ENY had several inches of sleet in the Valentine's Day storm in 07, but it was mostly heavy snow in this area from ALB on north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GGEM is so good for Buff to the ADK and prolongs it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 45 yesterday and 43 today both sunny days too. Going for my first run outside in over a month today. 2 minutes ago, Leelee said: Same here. I've enjoyed jogging outside this week. That's shut down for at least another 2 weeks soon. I'm getting those looking at long-range models and wishing it was March feels. I've been running in the morning below zero...come on guys... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: GGEM is so good for Buff to the ADK and prolongs it. It keeps showing that 3rd wave through Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: GGEM is so good for Buff to the ADK and prolongs it. Definitely has 3rd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Leelee said: Same here. I've enjoyed jogging outside this week. That's shut down for at least another 2 weeks soon. I'm getting those looking at long-range models and wishing it was March feels. Yeah next week GFS drops the PV over us again. I think come March I'll be content with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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