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Model Mayhem Snowstorm! 2/2-2/4


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  On 2/2/2022 at 1:48 PM, rochesterdave said:

You know Tom, we have a pretty great group here. Maybe you don’t realize it but you come across as a royal prick about 80% of the time. Throttle it back bro. 

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Don't worry, he'll run off and start his own upstate NY/Central PA weather board soon enough if things aren't to his liking around here. Pretty funny to see him scurry back to AMWX though after he moved out of the Philly area.

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  On 2/2/2022 at 2:36 PM, The Iceman said:

Don't worry, he'll run off and start his own upstate NY/Central PA weather board soon enough if things aren't to his liking around here. Pretty funny to see him scurry back to AMWX though after he moved out of the Philly area.

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Oh he has a history.

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  On 2/2/2022 at 2:50 PM, BGM Blizzard said:

3k Nam pretty similar with temps and ptype outputs, but less precip than 12k Nam

nam-nest-nystate-total_snow_10to1-4019200.thumb.png.72236b69277f2d7088e6612105a6ebb9.pngnam-nest-nystate-total_precip_ptype_fourpanel-4019200.thumb.png.e720643b215d5a3d33b6ae164d636c8f.png

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Hopes fading for a good snowstorm for my locale, but I’m starting to get a little nervous about freezing rain problems.  That would be the absolute worst. I would much rather lose all our snow than deal with the effects of an ice storm. 

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  On 2/2/2022 at 2:57 PM, rochesterdave said:

Holy crap. 2!?!? Nice. I consider anyone below 15 as good. I’m an 18. So you get the idea. One good shot, one bad shot. Any good courses out that way? 

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I belong to Skaneateles CC and it’s great. Haven’t played too many others since moving here but Rochester is LOADED with some of the best!!

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  On 2/2/2022 at 2:53 PM, winter_rules said:

Hopes fading for a good snowstorm for my locale, but I’m starting to get a little nervous about freezing rain problems.  That would be the absolute worst. I would much rather lose all our snow than deal with the effects of an ice storm. 

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Where do you live? Trout Crk Ontario? 

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  On 2/2/2022 at 2:58 PM, 96blizz said:

I belong to Skaneateles CC and it’s great. Haven’t played too many others since moving here but Rochester is LOADED with some of the best!!

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Oh yeah. Incredible courses here. We’ll have to chat about it on the banter page someday. Greystone is my favorite. I play it for $40. Lol 

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  On 2/2/2022 at 2:53 PM, winter_rules said:

Hopes fading for a good snowstorm for my locale, but I’m starting to get a little nervous about freezing rain problems.  That would be the absolute worst. I would much rather lose all our snow than deal with the effects of an ice storm. 

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Yeah you and me both. I'm not an expert, but if the model outputs are correct, I think we get more sleet vs freezing rain as it stands now. There seems to be a few hour window where the models are suggesting its predominently freezing rain and then it switches to sleet and eventually snow. During the window of freezing rain, the surface temps seem to be hovering around 30-32 which may limit the accretion to some extent. There a bunch of other factors that go into trying to accurately predict ice accretion too (dew point, pavement temps, precip rates etc).

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