tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:19 PM, tombo82685 said: wise man, srefs are usually to amped up with everything due to the ARW family. I believe nam is involved in them but like yourself don't look at them Expand Arw does well in these lake enhanced set ups. They may inflate sometimes but gives you the idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Can see on hrrr that subtle 3 wave develop in texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:29 PM, tim123 said: Can see on hrrr that subtle 3 wave develop in texas. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Definitely a great trend on the models. The 3rd wave is a big deal for SYR-BGM for synoptic, but also for the South Shore for keeping the RH up on a cold NE flow w/good ratios. We take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Timmy gone wild this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Latest NWS gridded forecast at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:39 PM, Blue Moon said: This will be a heavy, wet snow, at least initially. The forecaster's discussion yesterday evening stated that ratios of 6:1 to as low as 4:1 are probable. Expand I would say 4:1 is basically sleet. I don’t know know if we ever have snow at 4:1. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:35 PM, tombo82685 said: Timmy gone wild this morning Expand You know Tom, we have a pretty great group here. Maybe you don’t realize it but you come across as a royal prick about 80% of the time. Throttle it back bro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 When do we think we’ll switch from rain to snow tomorrow. I felt the models were showing the flip around sunrise but the forecast on the Weather Channel didn’t have the change until noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:51 PM, CNY_WX said: When do we think we’ll switch from rain to snow tomorrow. I felt the models were showing the flip around sunrise but the forecast on the Weather Channel didn’t have the change until noon. Expand I wouldn't go with the Weather Channel. I feel like their forecasts are very general/regional and not focused on the specific details/conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:47 PM, CNY_WX said: I would say 4:1 is basically sleet. I don’t know know if we ever have snow at 4:1. Expand Yeah that 4 to 1 is total bs. 6 to 1 yeah I can see for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:53 PM, TugHillMatt said: I wouldn't go with the Weather Channel. I feel like their forecasts are very general/regional and not focused on the specific details/conditions. Expand Oh I’m not but I just found it interesting that they feel the change will be so late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM looks more amped, slower cold push, higher heights out front at h18, probably gonna shift nw again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Still holding at 27 here. I went to bed at 2 and it was 30 and I felt like the temperature was on the way up but it actually fell again overnight. Yesterday was close to 40 but the extremely low dew points in the teens kept melting at a minimum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 12:27 PM, 96blizz said: I am north of the lake by about half a mile in the village. Not on the hill but I can hit driver, wedge to it. My camp is 10 miles down the lake on the west side. Expand If you're hitting your driver as long as your wedge...you're doing it wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:48 PM, rochesterdave said: You know Tom, we have a pretty great group here. Maybe you don’t realize it but you come across as a royal prick about 80% of the time. Throttle it back bro. Expand Lighten up or we'll get Freak back in here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:02 PM, Syrmax said: Lighten up or we'll get Freak back in here. Expand Where is he, we miss his input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:04 PM, CNY_WX said: Where is he, we miss his input. Expand More like output. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Not digging 12z NAM as it delays the initial cold air push for the first wave. Seems only NIA gets in on frozen overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:58 PM, BGM Blizzard said: NAM looks more amped, slower cold push, higher heights out front at h18, probably gonna shift nw again... Expand Or maybe not. Cold air pressing more by H30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:08 PM, vortmax said: Not digging 12z NAM as it delays the initial cold air push for the first wave. Seems only NIA get in on frozen overnight. Expand Forecast was for a inch or less overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:09 PM, tim123 said: Forecast was for a inch or less overnight. Expand Yes, but @21z is still only an inch in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:04 PM, CNY_WX said: Where is he, we miss his input. Expand There were mumblings about life changes, moving etc. Maybe heading back to the real snowbelts along i-95? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 First wave was always west need that to pass to get cold in. Sets the stage for 2 and maybe 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Wave 3 is with piece of energy left behind in Oklahoma i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM looks good. Not many changes. Just minor spasms. LP is actually a little lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:01 PM, Syrmax said: If you're hitting your driver as long as your wedge...you're doing it wrong! Expand I am a 2 handicap college golfer. I meant driver and then wedge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:18 PM, rochesterdave said: NAM looks good. Not many changes. Just minor spasms. LP is actually a little lower. Expand That QPF hole over us doesn't make sense with a NNE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 2:22 PM, vortmax said: That QPF hole over us doesn't make sense with a NNE wind. Expand I wouldn’t spend any time worrying about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 On 2/2/2022 at 1:48 PM, rochesterdave said: You know Tom, we have a pretty great group here. Maybe you don’t realize it but you come across as a royal prick about 80% of the time. Throttle it back bro. Expand Noted, Will do. Maybe this isn’t the best community then for me. Sorry for causing such a stir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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