rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 And 96, I love your positivity. Your mom WOULD be proud as hell!!!!!! I just hit 3 years booze free. Like a day or two ago- I don’t keep a sober date per se’. My experience has been different and not nearly as rewarding. I am looking for a center and better balance. Your story has inspired me! Keep up the good work. You bring a palpable positive vibe here. The kuchie maps don’t hurt either. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Not all of us get up at the crack boys. But I knew things were looking up when I saw 50 new posts!!! I knew I liked this one. Morning Dave. Lake enhancement looks really nice with this one. Some of em have it snowing for 40 hours lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 It’s subtle but you can definitely see the GFS FLEX towards the NAM/ RGEM. I like the thruway towns for 12-16”. I think almost everyone gets this one. Downstate is out of luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: And 96, I love your positivity. Your mom WOULD be proud as hell!!!!!! I just hit 3 years booze free. Like a day or two ago- I don’t keep a sober date per se’. My experience has been different and not nearly as rewarding. I am looking for a center and better balance. Your story has inspired me! Keep up the good work. You bring a palpable positive vibe here. The kuchie maps don’t hurt either. Congrats to you! That’s amazing!!! I don’t do the “alcoholic” term at all either. Never fit me. It also puts the blame on the person when it’s really the addictive substance that’s the problem. Know any “cocaine-aholics?” “Heroin-aholics?” Nah. Me neither. For me, it was just something that wasn’t serving me well in life any more It’s just meant more time with my kids and focus in the right areas - particularly my own mental and physical health. I’d be lying if I didn’t say I miss a Jebwalk with an IPA in hand - but a hot chocolate or a good cup of coffee in a peaceful and beautiful snowfall does the trick!! Trust me, you’re inspiring people with your decisions. Esteemable people do esteemable things!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Morning Dave. Lake enhancement looks really nice with this one. Some of em have it snowing for 40 hours lol Yep. Enhancement is the wildcard. Could bump Rochester to Buffalo up a few ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Yep. Enhancement is the wildcard. Could bump Rochester to Buffalo up a few ticks. Friday. Based on previous guidance was all set to rush this system east of the area pretty quickly on Friday. However, trends now showing up that there could be yet another low-level wave lifting through to keep snow going through midday while larger scale lift ramps up again as northern stream trough advances across the Great Lakes. While this occurs northeast to northerly winds will be flowing across Lake Ontario with temps at top of inversion sufficient for lake enhancement. All in all, increased QPF and snow a bit compared to any larger scale blends and previous forecast. If the more amplified ECMWF and Canadian-Regional are right on this trend (supported more now by 06z NAM), then could see even more snow on Friday especially from lake enhancement. Still cannot rule out some blowing snow especially in open areas near Lake Ontario. Coord with near term forecaster on headlines with the system and opted to go to 15z for end time of warning over far western NY and to 18z for rest of the area. System finally pulls east late Friday, leaving persistent but light lake effect off Lake Ontario in a more northwest flow by that point. Temps chilly on Friday with readings in the upper teens to near 20F not rising much from overnight lows Thursday night. Wind chills will be as cold as the single digits below zero east of Lake Ontario to the single digits above zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Nam shows that "last wave" that BGM discussed. Something to watch if it trends stronger, could bump totals up especially CNY and southeastward... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Congrats to you! That’s amazing!!! I don’t do the “alcoholic” term at all either. Never fit me. It also puts the blame on the person when it’s really the addictive substance that’s the problem. Know any “cocaine-aholics?” “Heroin-aholics?” Nah. Me neither. For me, it was just something that wasn’t serving me well in life any more It’s just meant more time with my kids and focus in the right areas - particularly my own mental and physical health. I’d be lying if I didn’t say I miss a Jebwalk with an IPA in hand - but a hot chocolate or a foos cup of coffee in a peaceful and beautiful snowfall does the trick!! Trust me, you’re inspiring people with your decisions. Esteemable people do esteemable things!! God. I loved sitting down for snowstorm with a 12 pack. I’m not saying I won’t ever do it again but like you, it wasn’t serving me well. I would wake up with bad stomach pain and I was getting shaky. Skaneateles looks well positioned here btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Sunrise out my front window this AM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Sunrise out my front window this AM. Do you live on the hill just north of town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Not all of us get up at the crack boys. But I knew things were looking up when I saw 50 new posts!!! I knew I liked this one. Well some of that was us having a heart-to-heart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Do you live on the hill just north of town? I am north of the lake by about half a mile in the village. Not on the hill but I can hit driver, wedge to it. My camp is 10 miles down the lake on the west side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 HRDPS picking up on that third wave. Gonna be a big one boys. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I am north of the lake by about half a mile in the village. Not on the hill but I can hit driver, wedge to it. My camp is 10 miles down the lake on the west side. I always stop at Doug’s, Angel’s or the Bakery. I love it there. Just figured it was that newer development as the town is full of gorgeous old houses and yours looks so new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: HRDPS picking up on that third wave. Gonna be a big one boys. If the at happens, the 9-12” warning with “locally higher amounts” part becomes very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: I always stop at Doug’s, Angel’s or the Bakery. I love it there. Just figured it was that newer development as the town is full of gorgeous old houses and yours looks so new. It is. Only about 10 years old. It’s not on a hill but I know that one too. Dougs is heaven. In fact thinking of ordering up some takeout from there during the storm. Angels was bought by Adam Weitsman and is going to be Clover’s Diner (his daughters name). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Into the mountains of NH and VT? In Sne region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 6z Euro Ticked nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 6z Euro Thanks BGM. When does the snow shut off on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Thanks BGM. When does the snow shut off on the Euro? Last flakes stick around til 0z Saturday or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Love it. Thanks for sharing! I don't drink either ..except for a very occasional glass of wine when visiting family. While I know I am negative on here, I promise I am not as miserable in "real life." I am definitely geared to see things in a critical way. My colleagues always come to me because I naturally see errors in things and it's helpful when I can help correct them. I am actually a huge "person of encouragement" and love encouraging others in their gifts and talents. I really do have lots of respect for you! Is there a Sizzle Warning issued for CNY today? Put 'em up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Last flakes stick around til 0z Saturday or so Fabulous. Great to see a global see the lingering snows like the mesos are seeing. Thx man!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Goin deep pulling out the sref plumes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ticked nw. Yeah about 5-10 miles. Other than maybe the UK, it's now the only mainly snow solution for down here. Not holding my breath given where the rest of the models stand right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Bgm do srefs do a standard 10 to 1 on the snow plumes or are ratios factored in? 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah about 5-10 miles. It's the only mainly snow solution for down here. Not holding my breath given where the rest of the models stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Bgm do srefs do a standard 10 to 1 on the snow plumes or are ratios factored in? Ha I'm not sure. I've never really paid much attention to the Sref since everyone seems to shit on them for their apparent lack of accuracy and being affiliated with the NAM? (I forget what the connection was to the NAM, or maybe there isnt one and Im just remembering wrong). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 48 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: HRDPS picking up on that third wave. Gonna be a big one boys. I don't know...I'm still thinking 4" max for Toronto. Rain to snow scenarios rarely seem to work out for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I don't know sref plumes I found tend to do well with lake enhanced storms. They run a whole bunch of diffrent models and runs. But generally I take em with a grain of salt. I believe its a bunch of mesoscale models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Ha I'm not sure. I've never really paid much attention to the Sref since everyone seems to shit on them for their apparent lack of accuracy and being affiliated with the NAM? (I forget what the connection was to the NAM, or maybe there isnt one and Im just remembering wrong). wise man, srefs are usually to amped up with everything due to the ARW family. I believe nam is involved in them but like yourself don't look at them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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