96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Dude its a weather forum and they get annoyed when you talk weather. Smh. Baffles me too. I was just kidding. I don’t care. Lol. I give it out, gotta take it buddy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Dude its a weather forum and they get annoyed when you talk weather. Smh. Baffles me too. What are you talking about? The only weather talk I ever get annoyed with coming from others is Buffwx and Max talking about swimming pool-worthy thaws in the dead of winter. Ain't nobody got time for that. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 46 minutes ago, tim123 said: Pretty neat as you go toward ny pa border up to Central ny the map with ratios shows much lower totals do too 6 to 8 to 1 ratios. Up north of 5 and 20 looks like 12 13 to 1 I was jokingly going to say, "So, we are getting closer to those 40:1 ratios?" And now after seeing you talk about enhancement south of the lakes, I know that's where you're going. 70:1 incoming! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 96 blizzard woke up to get himself a kuchie map and he thought somebody was barbecuing. He said oh lord Jesus its 10 to 1. Ain't nobody got time for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: 96 blizzard woke up to get himself a kuchie map and he thought somebody was barbecuing. He said oh lord Jesus its 10 to 1. Ain't nobody got time for that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS is fart rainbow beautiful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: What are you talking about? The only weather talk I ever get annoyed with coming from others is Buffwx and Max talking about swimming pool-worthy thaws in the dead of winter. Ain't nobody got time for that. Not pointing any one out but that dam stupid snowman avatar really is a pisser. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, 96blizz said: I quit drinking alcohol nearly a year ago and my life has changed dramatically for the better. I’m the most upbeat, energetic guy you’ll ever meet - but I crash hard and go to bed around 8:30 and get up at or just before 4 every day. I work out a TON - often burning 4,500 or more calories a day. I’ve lost 33 pounds during that alcohol free stretch (which started as a dedication to my Mom who passed away nearly a year ago - but has really been more for me and my family, and she knew it.). When people ask, I tell them, “I drink as much as I want, I just happen to not want any.” It’s been astonishingly life changing. And I will always try to lift us when the models bring us down. It’s so much better that way for everyone. You and I will balance each other out on the forum - and that’s a healthy thing my friend! Maybe we can work with each other to find a more realistic center - or maybe our yin and yang will be perfect for us!! Finally, and remarkably, my mind and body seems to know when to wake up when storm tracking. Last night I got up at 10:30 and 2AM. While I was up, I peed - but it was really my brain saying it’s time to check the models. Once the storm is gone, I will sleep like a wee baby and probably piss my pants. Love it. Thanks for sharing! I don't drink either ..except for a very occasional glass of wine when visiting family. While I know I am negative on here, I promise I am not as miserable in "real life." I am definitely geared to see things in a critical way. My colleagues always come to me because I naturally see errors in things and it's helpful when I can help correct them. I am actually a huge "person of encouragement" and love encouraging others in their gifts and talents. I really do have lots of respect for you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6z GFS. Boner. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: 6z GFS. Boner. And this doesn't really factor in any enhancement. Or atleast a accurate representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Love it. Thanks for sharing! I don't drink either ..except for a very occasional glass of wine when visiting family. While I know I am negative on here, I promise I am not as miserable in "real life." I am definitely geared to see things in a critical way. My colleagues always come to me because I naturally see errors in things and it's helpful when I can help correct them. I am actually a huge "person of encouragement" and love encouraging others in their gifts and talents. I really do have lots of respect for you! Good for you bro. I’ve always read you as a great dude. Maybe a little disgruntled at times - but a guy that would go the lengths for people he cares about. The back and forth is fun as shit - and totally harmless. I always say this about my best friends from middle school, “If we aren’t busting your balls, you can assume we don’t like you anymore.” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Not pointing any one out but that dam stupid snowman avatar really is a pisser. He has been a bit grumpier this week. That's the "Philly edginess" coming out on lack of sleep due to overnight model check-ins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Good for you bro. I’ve always read you as a great dude. Maybe a little disgruntled at times - but a guy that would go the lengths for people he cares about. The back and forth is fun as shit - and totally harmless. I always say this about my best friends from middle school, “If we aren’t busting your balls, you can assume we don’t like you anymore.” Congrats on your personal achievements for you and the family. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: He has been a bit grumpier this week. That's the "Philly edginess" coming out on lack of sleep due to overnight model check-ins. The guy thinks I am a idiot for saying 12 to 13 to one ratios when its clear as day. 10 to 1 is like the only ratio he knows cause he is from Philadelphia. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: The guy thinks I am a idiot for saying 12 to 13 to one ratios when its clear as day. I can't wait to read his response to this when he wakes up from dreaming about the Iggles making it to the Superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Congrats on your personal achievements for you and the family. Thanks man - means a lot. It’s been a long road. Many of you guys may remember what I was going through last February. Y’all were so helpful and understanding. My Mom had her heart attack on February 4th and fought hard for a couple of weeks. She’d be so, so proud of what I’ve done since if she were still here. And no f*cking doubt she’d be dropping Kuchera maps too. She was Uber positive! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Thanks man - means a lot. It’s been a long road. Many of you guys may remember what I was going through last February. Y’all were so helpful and understanding. My Mom had her heart attack on February 4th and fought hard for a couple of weeks. She’d be so, so proud of what I’ve done since if she were still here. And no f*cking doubt she’d be dropping Kuchera maps too. She was Uber positive! Absolutely shed be proud. She is proud looking down on ya. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Big ice storm over a huge area in Ohio and Mississippi Valley areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Any power outages down that way and could be a real disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Friday. Based on previous guidance was all set to rush this system east of the area pretty quickly on Friday. However, trends now showing up that there could be yet another low-level wave lifting through to keep snow going through midday while larger scale lift ramps up again as northern stream trough advances across the Great Lakes. While this occurs northeast to northerly winds will be flowing across Lake Ontario with temps at top of inversion sufficient for lake enhancement. All in all, increased QPF and snow a bit compared to any larger scale blends and previous forecast. If the more amplified ECMWF and Canadian-Regional are right on this trend (supported more now by 06z NAM), then could see even more snow on Friday especially from lake enhancement. Still cannot rule out some blowing snow especially in open areas near Lake Ontario. Coord with near term forecaster on headlines with the system and opted to go to 15z for end time of warning over far western NY and to 18z for rest of the area. System finally pulls east late Friday, leaving persistent but light lake effect off Lake Ontario in a more northwest flow by that point. Temps chilly on Friday with readings in the upper teens to near 20F not rising much from overnight lows Thursday night. Wind chills will be as cold as the single digits below zero east of Lake Ontario to the single digits above zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NWS BGM .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High Impact Wintry System on the Way... A complex frontal system with several waves of low pressure traveling along it looks to dominate for the later half of the week. High pressure across Canada and the upper Great Lakes will be trying to send down low level cold air into our region north of the front. However, south of the boundary warm moist air will be drawn northward focused aloft. The frontal boundary looks to slowly inch east Thursday then stalls somewhere across the region. A new wrinkle is the boundary may wobble a bit in the early evening hours Thursday. This would bring a warmer push of air aloft into portions of the Southern Tier into Delaware county while sending a surge of slightly colder air down east of Elmira into Tioga county for a time. Just to the north of this boundary, modeling is showing increasing F-GEN forcing for a time during the early evening hours as well. This could result in several hours of one to two inch per hour rates where snow is the dominant precipitation type. We will get more into the typical range to identify mesoscale snow bands a little closer to the event. Further northwest across the Finger Lakes northeastward to the NY thruway corridor confidence is still fairly high any mixed precipitation changes over to snow in a quick manner by the end of the day Thursday. The bulk of the snowfall is expected to fall Thursday night into Friday morning. Given the increase in confidence this area was upgraded to a winter storm warning. Thermal profiles vary from hour to hour and model to model across the Southern Tier of NY/ Northern Tier PA area into Otsego and Delaware counties given the frontal variance discussed above. A few miles could make the difference between seeing the highest snow totals and quite a bit of sleet and freezing rain. With some uncertainty here left the watch intact. Across the Wyoming valley and Poconos areas, temperatures still look to rise well above freezing Thursday with rain gradually changing to freezing rain from north to south then end as sleet and snow Thursday night into Friday. Some snow and ice accumulations are possible here. QPF still looks to be around or just over an inch and with a gradual melting of the snowpack flooding concerns still look limited to small streams and typical poor drainage areas. Temperatures start off Wednesday night and Thursday generally in the 30`s before falling Thursday afternoon through the 30`s then into the 10`s and 20`s generally on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Friday. Based on previous guidance was all set to rush this system east of the area pretty quickly on Friday. However, trends now showing up that there could be yet another low-level wave lifting through to keep snow going through midday while larger scale lift ramps up again as northern stream trough advances across the Great Lakes. While this occurs northeast to northerly winds will be flowing across Lake Ontario with temps at top of inversion sufficient for lake enhancement. All in all, increased QPF and snow a bit compared to any larger scale blends and previous forecast. If the more amplified ECMWF and Canadian-Regional are right on this trend (supported more now by 06z NAM), then could see even more snow on Friday especially from lake enhancement. Still cannot rule out some blowing snow especially in open areas near Lake Ontario. Coord with near term forecaster on headlines with the system and opted to go to 15z for end time of warning over far western NY and to 18z for rest of the area. System finally pulls east late Friday, leaving persistent but light lake effect off Lake Ontario in a more northwest flow by that point. Temps chilly on Friday with readings in the upper teens to near 20F not rising much from overnight lows Thursday night. Wind chills will be as cold as the single digits below zero east of Lake Ontario to the single digits above Buffalo hitting the lake enhancement but not in their snow totals yet until a bit more confident. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS is just about gone here, need some last minute ticks SE, don't need much aside from the Canadians but everything keeps ticking the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 OT, gotta love Cantore..."I really love our forecast more than the NWS and I rarely think that way" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Hi rez canadian to hour 48 at 10 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hi rez canadian to hour 48 at 10 to 1. And more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, 96blizz said: And more to go. If nam is correct its goin to snow into sat morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Unusually dead in here this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Unusually dead in here this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Not all of us get up at the crack boys. But I knew things were looking up when I saw 50 new posts!!! I knew I liked this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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