vortmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: GFS is definitely more amped. I think this is headed NW. About 50 mile NW. Wondering if this will be the trend as the sampling gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 *Chef's Kiss* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 NWS Buffalo lowered the area amounts in all of WNY to 8-12” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 54 minutes ago, Stash said: Albany is a great office, but they're usually the very last ones to pull the trigger on watches and especially warnings. And that seems especially true when it involves the greater capital region counties. Maybe its a verification score thing, I dunno. Ultimately, it obviously makes no difference to what the weather will do, but it is a little surprising they didn't issue any more watches. I'm sure they will by tomorrow morning, but at that point we're only talking about a 12+ hour lead time. Yeah... might as well just go straight to warnings at that point lol. Do think there should be some sort of combination criteria established for Watch/Warning... like 50% of each threshold... to avoid these kinds of subjective differences from office to office. Unless the Gem/Rgem somehow score a coup, every model pretty much has over an inch of liquid in frozen form. Definitely better than 50/50 chance of a high impact winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: NWS Buffalo lowered the area amounts in all of WNY to 8-12” Chasing the 12z suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 hours ago, vortmax said: About 50 mile NW. Wondering if this will be the trend as the sampling gets better. Half that... 25 miles. Could be the start of a trend or just noise. See what 0z runs do later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Channel 9’s first snowfall forecast. Sounds pretty reasonable. 10+ because of possible lollis to 12. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 For what it’s worth, ICON came north too. It appears our south trend has stopped cold. Also the bleeding of QPF has reversed. Good for a lot of us. Even Syracuse looking good. I still like my original call for 12” across the thruway cities. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Gfs came nw. Didn't give boston 20 inches of snow. Lol like 4. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 33 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Half that... 25 miles. Could be start of trend or just noise. See what 0z runs do later. Yeah but its probably headed toward hell like the NAM just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs came nw. Didn't give boston 20 inches of snow. Lol like 4. Each run the GFS lowers HP to north by 1mb. Now only 1 above NAM & RGEM at same times. I think the Canadians are gonna win out on this more NW track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah but its probably headed toward hell like the NAM just did. Eh... we'll see. Could be. But I wouldn't give up any hope over some small shifts at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It’s still 48 hours out (is it getting further away?) and I’d anticipate 50 miles north or south. Or more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 hours ago, sferic said: Great info! Would you know what is the lowest recorded minimum high for KYSR in Winter? 1/15. 6F high , -6F low 1/29 11F high, +1 low. Those were the two coldest high temps for KSYZ in January. Jan 29th, another day where the Sizzle's thermometer likely missed another subzero reading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 1/15. 6F high , -6F low 1/29 11F high, +1 low. Those were the two coldest high temps for KSYZ in January. Jan 29nanother day where the Sizzle's thermometer likely missed another subzero reading. I’m not sure if he’s asking for the lowest maximum temperature this year or all time. The all time lowest maximum temperature in Syracuse was -7.1 F on 12/29/1933. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18z Euro is a bit SE of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, 96blizz said: Canadians are too nice for a coup. Come now, have you heard of the trucker convoy that just went to Ottawa? Just kidding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18z Euro 10:1, p-type, and last 4 runs of 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Ottawa Blizzard said: Come now, have you heard of the trucker convoy that just went to Ottawa? Just kidding. Back in the 70s or 80s Quebec threatened to secede from the rest of Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro 10:1, p-type, and last 4 runs of 10:1. 13 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro is a bit SE of 12z. Possibly drier (in general) too. Chasing gfs. Lol. All these models blow chunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, tim123 said: Chasing gfs. Lol. All these models blow chunks. Yeah hard to tell what going on. Incoherent shifts between the models. Like Dave said, there going to be some wobbling back and forth and unfortunately even small shifts have huge implications for some or most of us. Hopefully this thing threads the needle and we all get 6+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z Euro 10:1 and p-type. And let's lock that in right there. I'm in the sweet spot and you get plenty of snow too. That's a wrap everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Back in the 70s or 80s Quebec threatened to secede from the rest of Canada. Yup. Two referendums. The first in 1980, the second in 1995. I remember the 1995 one- was a 50/50 result. A real nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah hard to tell what going on. Incoherent shifts between the models. That's why I generally only pay attention to the 0/12z runs. Too much noise otherwise. Yeah, a model output trend could be spotted or "confirmed" on 6/18Z runs, I get it, but for the most part it becomes TMI. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Sure is insistent. Can’t discount it but also hasn’t been great lately. Hopefully we get a GFS/NAM blend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, cny rider said: And let's lock that in right there. I'm in the sweet spot and you get plenty of snow too. That's a wrap everyone. Yeah, lock her up. Winter Storm Hilary. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: 1/15. 6F high , -6F low 1/29 11F high, +1 low. Those were the two coldest high temps for KSYZ in January. Jan 29th, another day where the Sizzle's thermometer likely missed another subzero reading. I meant All Time recorded low maximum High temp but thanks anyhow ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, sferic said: I meant All Time recorded low maximum High temp but thanks anyhow ! You didn’t see my post. -7.1 on 12/29/1933. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Nam bump nw again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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