wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 South-Central Great Plains through to the Northeast... ...Several rounds of winter weather lasting through Thursday for portions of the central U.S. before shifting to the interior Northeast... Days 1-3... Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is expected to mark the onset of what will likely become a prolonged, multi-round and multi-precipitation type winter weather event impacting a large portion of the central to northeastern U.S. into Friday. Deepening moisture (precipitable water anomalies of +1 to +3 sigma near and south of the front) supplied by low-to-mid level southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico into the central U.S. is expected to support precipitation developing north of a strong cold front as it drops southeastward through the central Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley, and south of the western Great Lakes Wednesday morning. Favorable upper jet forcing overlapping mid-level frontogenesis is expected to support an expanding area of wintry precipitation from Kansas and Oklahoma to Lower Michigan Day 2. Precipitation will continue to develop and propagate northeastward in tandem with an increasing jet (~150kts) into the Corn Belt as another area of organized precipitation develops back to the southwest. As the upper trough in the Southwest moves into the southern Plains, right-entrance region upper jet forcing along with the strong low-to-mid level frontogenesis will support an area of moderate to heavy snow developing over eastern Oklahoma and Kansas Wednesday evening before shifting northeast through the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the southern Great Lakes region overnight. On Thursday, strong divergence along the right-entrance region of a powerful upper jet (~170kts centered over the northern Great Lakes), will continue to combine with low-to-mid level frontogenesis to support moderate to heavy snow continuing northeast through the eastern Great Lakes into the Upstate New York and northern New England. WPC probabilities indicate that total snows of at least 4 inches are likely to extend from Kansas and portions of Oklahoma all the way to northern Ohio and southern Michigan. Within this area, locally heavier totals reaching a foot or more are most likely from central Illinois through northern Indiana into Lower Michigan. By early Friday, snowfall amounts of 8 inches or more are likely from western New York to the Adirondacks and along the northern New England border. Heavier totals of up to a foot or more are most likely across western New New York and the Adirondacks. South of the heavier snow, a wintry mix, including freezing rain, will likely impact areas from North Texas into the Ohio Valley Wednesday into early Thursday, extending farther northeast through the central Appalachians into the Northeast. Significant ice accumulations are likely, with amounts of a 0.25 inch or more possible, especially across portions of eastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, southern Missouri/Illinois and northeastward along and north of the main stem of the Ohio River. There, WPC probabilities of at least 0.25 inch ice are in the moderate (40-70%) category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: NWS is pretty bullish IMO regarding the 12-18” for much of WNY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: NWS is pretty bullish IMO regarding the 12-18” for much of WNY. If ggem suite is correct then yes. But if these flatter models are correct looks more 6-12 to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: NWS is pretty bullish IMO regarding the 12-18” for much of WNY. Kind of fools gold lol Not much difference between the 8"-12" and 12"-18".. For the most part they are going high end for the 8"-12" and low end for the 12"-18".. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Low end and high end.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Not much change in Gefs other than cutting back on snowfall maxes a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Not much change in Gefs Drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: Drier Yeah I fixed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Getting into close enough range where the higher res/skilled Operationals are of more value than ensembles anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 euro going to press that high a bit more here this run. Would think this ends up more progressive than 6z unless the caboose low really amps up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: euro going to press that high a bit more here this run. Would think this ends up more progressive than 6z unless the caboose low really amps up Excellent, actually snows a decent bit here albeit a dry run though. Edit, it's about the same but quite a bit snowier here finally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: euro going to press that high a bit more here this run. Would think this ends up more progressive than 6z unless the caboose low really amps up Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: How dare you work when there's a storm coming. 1/2" an hour rates don't really get me excited. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, 96blizz said: Meh. Yeah, pretty underwhelming as fronts usually are lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Excellent, actually snows a decent bit here albeit a dry run though. Edit, it's about the same but quite a bit snowier here finally. A little surprised it came in cooler, but it's certainly drier. Probably a high end advisory event as depicted here, maybe low end warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: euro going to press that high a bit more here this run. Would think this ends up more progressive than 6z unless the caboose low really amps up Yep I noticed the same thing but wasn't sure how much difference at the surface it would make. Small but noticeable for those of us on the southern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 42 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, pretty underwhelming as fronts usually are lol. Take it and run though. We both been teetering on the southern fringe. 6-10 of dense snow always better than a bunch of sleet and zr. Last 3 Euro runs at 10:1 and 12z precip type output 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Take it and run though. We both been teetering on the southern fringe. Rather 6-10 of dense snow than a bunch of sleet and zr. This is tough to watch for those of us who live along the I-88 corridor. My official forecast to co-workers is 1”-15”. Rain would pause snowmobiling until we receive more snow. 6”+ would make it beautiful, near perfect, conditions. We’re right on the brink with all options on the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, Stash said: A little surprised it came in cooler, but it's certainly drier. Probably a high end advisory event as depicted here, maybe low end warning. 15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, pretty underwhelming as fronts usually are lol. Yeah, the 12z Euro is really the first to get the entire sub forum group, including the east and southeast folks.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ggem looks drunk right now with its depiction. Always gotta respect big man highs spreading east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 January Climate Data for Sizzlecuse... KSYZ and IMBY haven't had a >6" snowstorm yet this season. Jan storm ended up near 6.5" (7.6" at KSYZ) but that included a bunch of backend lake enhanced snowfall. Too many <3" events to mention. We were about 80% of normal snowfall and 73% total qpf for Jan and -4.6F for month. So cold and dry. Could be worse, could be December... Noticed lowest temp at KSYZ for Jan was -9F (twice) with 7 subzero lows and 2 days at exactly 0 for mins. Figuring in the 1-2F temp bias at KSYZ, we were likely lower than those values for both absolute and total # of min subzero temps. Jan grade: C Season grade to date: D+ Nov grade: C Dec grade: D- 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, winter_rules said: This is tough to watch for those of us who live along the I-88 corridor. My official forecast to co-workers is 1”-15”. Rain would pause snowmobiling until we receive more snow. 6”+ would make it beautiful, near perfect, conditions. We’re right on the brink with all options on the table. I'd say 15 is probably out of reach even for the higher terrain and in an all snow scenario due to less than ideal ratios. But 10-12" might be doable if we don't lose much precip to mixing esp in higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Well you guys down in CNY reeled this in, congrats haha. I will be bowing and throwing in the towel on this storm as it looks like nothing more then a run of the mill 2-5" snow for the GTHA over Bring on Spring! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, winter_rules said: This is tough to watch for those of us who live along the I-88 corridor. My official forecast to co-workers is 1”-15”. Rain would pause snowmobiling until we receive more snow. 6”+ would make it beautiful, near perfect, conditions. We’re right on the brink with all options on the table. Hang in there. A week ago we were looking at this being several days in the 40s with rain. We would have gone back to bare ground. This event is going to be more addition than subtraction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, cny rider said: Hang in there. A week ago we were looking at this being several days in the 40s with rain. We would have gone back to bare ground. This event is going to be more addition than subtraction. Yep, I’m hoping for a net gain and I’ll call it a win! It’s shocking to see a 7 day forecast go from warm and wet to colder and snowy as we get closer. It seems that most warm forecasts usually trend warmer as we get closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: I'd say 15 is probably out of reach even for the higher terrain and in an all snow scenario due to less than ideal ratios. But 10-12" might be doable if we don't lose much precip to mixing esp in higher elevations. I don’t disagree, I’m just pointing out the significant spread in possible outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 49 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Take it and run though. We both been teetering on the southern fringe. 6-10 of dense snow always better than a bunch of sleet and zr. Last 3 Euro runs at 10:1 Oh I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Meh. We either rain/taint and then get "more snow" or we watch the Southern tier get the best snows while we downslope. Par for the course of the best snows skipping over CNY for 3rd winter in a row. Perhaps we'll get the first synoptic snowstorm of over 3 inches for the season this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Oh I'll take it. Albany will probably extend WSW all the way south to Greene and Rensselaer counties this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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