DeltaT13 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Presidents’ Day weekend? Super bowl weekend. The trip starts on Sunday. We rent out a bar for the game. Makes for a pretty rough Monday morning on the slopes some years…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Rgem a little colder especially N/W.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem a little colder especially N/W.. rgem would probably finish Matt off. 12-14 here while he gets pelted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It's the warmest run (so far) of all the models, so it will end up correct. I would still get 6 inches and who knows what else. Hoping for a bit more of a push of the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 it's like mortal combat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 saw timmy tonight after nws buf released that snow map 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Haha rain all the way to Toronto. Somehow one of the worst case scenario’s for me could play out. Rain washes away decent chunk of the 5-8” on the ground and the storm ends up being a mediocre 2-4” Alberta clipper. Only one set of runs but have to imagine Buffalo and EC are nervous they went with winter storm watches so early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So it could start snowing here anywhere from as early as Wednesday night or as late as the twilight hours of Friday morning. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: Haha rain all the way to Toronto. Somehow one of the worst case scenario’s for me could play out. Rain washes away decent chunk of the 5-8” on the ground and the storm ends up being a mediocre 2-4” Alberta clipper. Only one set of runs but have to imagine Buffalo and EC are nervous they went with winter storm watches so early. Based on the Rgem? Don't give your Canadian model THAT much credit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Based on the Rgem? Don't give your Canadian model THAT much credit... haha ya. It’s also been notoriously north the entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: haha ya. It’s also been notoriously north the entire time It's pretty good with lake effect, but with synoptic systems? Not the greatest. Still, I hate that it's so far NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mryanwilkes Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I’m driving (with a neighbor) to visit his old buddies at Tupper Lake this weekend for ice fishing and snowmobiling. Leaving South Carolina on Thursday. I hope the interstates are OK… still, I’ve made better decisions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, mryanwilkes said: I’m driving (with a neighbor) to visit his old buddies at Tupper Lake this weekend for ice fishing and snowmobiling. Leaving South Carolina on Thursday. I hope the interstates are OK… still, I’ve made better decisions. Conditions should be good up at Tupper / Big Moose / OF / Stillwater if this storm stays the way it does. Gonna be some sick riding next weekend. I'd even ride Thursday, nothing like fresh pow. Enjoy it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 0Z Nam looks way different on Tidbits...so either Pivotal is pushing sleet too much OR that's a lot of sleet on tidbits: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, TugHillMatt said: 0Z Nam looks way different on Tidbits...so either Pivotal is pushing sleet too much OR that's a lot of sleet on tidbits: well that map counts sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, tombo82685 said: well that map counts sleet as snow. That's why I said it's a lot of sleet. Which is a HUGE area of sleet...and that large of an area is quite unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Tombo you gotta control that temper up on the tug when you don't get enough snow. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Tonight’s runs are a bit interesting. Lol this thread the needle type of event means I’ll be watching the thermometer and hoping everything pans out on the plus side it’s keeping expectations in check since it’s a 50/50 chance this is a nothing storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Tombo you gotta control that temper up on the tug when you don't get enough snow. He's a feisty one today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The Icon (the little it's worth) looks good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 24 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It's pretty good with lake effect, but with synoptic systems? Not the greatest. Still, I hate that it's so far NW. We need it north. I need to start melting off the snow on the pool cover. Warm, cleansing rains of February await us! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Gfs looks like dookie. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Model mayhem! Haha. Turns out these anafrontal things aren’t nearly as predictable as Miller A’s. 48 hours out and we still have wildcard solutions floating around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Model mayhem! Haha. Turns out these anafrontal things aren’t nearly as predictable as Miller A’s. 48 hours out and we still have wildcard solutions floating around. I was going to post the same exact thing, but was going to wait until the 0Z runs tonight. 48 hours since we started watching things and absolutely no more clarity. Ha! If we take a "middle ground" approach of all the models, the Thruway west of Utica to Buffalo is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Thought the GFS looked fine. The farther south it travels the more cold air and better ratios and less mixing. Farther NW the lower the ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 GEM is going to be further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 GEFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 GEM 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEM Nice compromise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEM Dave, Why and when should Kuchera be used as opposed to 10:1? Forgive me if I asked this awhile back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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