96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 This'll be 12" + for all of Western NY and into most of the Finger Lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Still snowing for eastern parts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Kinda wish it would stay a bit suppressed. The taint makes me nervous and obsessive. Plus, I’m watching VT. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, rochesterdave said: Kinda wish it would stay a bit suppressed. The taint makes me nervous and obsessive. Plus, I’m watching VT. Lol I really (my opinion) don't want a cold press situation and a progressive look now. The GFS (trend) is what you'd get and that scares the snot out of me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I probably couldn't cook up a worse Euro run if I made it myself. A dangerous ice storm would be a fitting cap on what's been a historically bad start to winter. Hopefully that's not the end solution. I'd prefer sending this through Toronto and deal with the rain over this. I don't see the Euro messing this one up that badly however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Lovely. Keeps the mix 5-10 miles southeast of me. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Holy $h!t !!!! Gonna be a crushjob here. My god !! 16" 1:10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMikeWx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Stash said: I probably couldn't cook up a worse Euro run if I made it myself. A dangerous ice storm would be a fitting cap on what's been a historically bad start to winter. Hopefully that's not the end solution. I'd prefer sending this through Toronto and deal with the rain over this. I don't see the Euro messing this one up that badly however. Completely agree but I'd rather that GFS solution over all rain... I guess down here it doesnt matter as much as long as upstate gets hammered for everyone else on the forum and my snowmobiling trips That's a whole lotta freezing rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Euro would be 12 to 18 for most of forum. With ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 16" 1:10 So 20”+ with ratios. Sign me up! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Keeps the mix 5-10 miles southeast of me. Hey I can walk the 4 miles to Brewerton on a nice day, push that mix south of the Thruway please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 25 minutes ago, Stash said: I probably couldn't cook up a worse Euro run if I made it myself. A dangerous ice storm would be a fitting cap on what's been a historically bad start to winter. Hopefully that's not the end solution. I'd prefer sending this through Toronto and deal with the rain over this. I don't see the Euro messing this one up that badly however. I’m right there with you. I was out all morning, started catching up on this thread from page 5. With every page it got better looking for us……until the Euro rolled in. We hope the GFS keeps up its recent over performance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Someone could get a nasty ice storm out of this. Have to hope the low level cold layer ends up thick enough where the precip is heavy to produce more sleet than ZR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I hate being so close to the taint line, but the models (other than random Rgem and some ensembles) haven't showed it getting much further north. The Canadian and now Euro have been pretty consistent with that part. Plus, as 96 has been saying, the more juiced up this is/combined with cold, the better for those on the wintry side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 All in all for our backyards all major global models show a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Latest from Weather prediction center.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: All in all for our backyards all major global models show a foot. It's nice to see Syracuse on par with BUF and ROC for once this season on a set of model runs (other than GFS). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, cny rider said: I’m right there with you. I was out all morning, started catching up on this thread from page 5. With every page it got better looking for us……until the Euro rolled in. We hope the GFS keeps up its recent over performance. Yeah, I'm not looking to take anyone's snow. As long as there isn't an ice storm here (snow or rain) whatever it does in Buffalo or Rochester is just fine. Still have nightmares over that ice storm in December 2008, and being without power for a week. All in all the Euro solution is only good for the NW portion of Upstate (and far northern NY), for the Southern Tier, Glens Falls/Capital Region, and Hudson Valley it's pretty awful. Still time for the HP to build in a little earlier however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Whats the euro output for freezing rain out your way? 1 minute ago, Stash said: Yeah, I'm not looking to take anyone's snow. As long as there isn't an ice storm here (snow or rain) whatever it does in Buffalo or Rochester is just fine. Still have nightmares over that ice storm in December 2008, and being without power for a week. All in all the Euro solution is only good for the NW portion of Upstate (and far northern NY), for the Southern Tier, Glens Falls/Capital Region, and Hudson Valley it's pretty awful. Still time for the HP to build in a little earlier however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The afternoon AFD from BUF, BGM and ALY will be interesting for sure at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stash said: Yeah, I'm not looking to take anyone's snow. As long as there isn't an ice storm here (snow or rain) whatever it does in Buffalo or Rochester is just fine. Still have nightmares over that ice storm in December 2008, and being without power for a week. All in all the Euro solution is only good for the NW portion of Upstate (and far northern NY), for the Southern Tier, Glens Falls/Capital Region, and Hudson Valley it's pretty awful. Still time for the HP to build in a little earlier however. The longest amount of time without power in WNY came from a snowstorm, rather than an ice storm. I had no power for 2 weeks in Oct 2006 in Cheektowaga, some longer than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I think this was from this morning.. Note of caution though, the shortwave energy that eventually spins up this system is just dropping south of Gulf of Alaska and really does not make to the southwest CONUS until Wednesday morning. So, could be changes to forecasts up to that point and with not much time for the system to develop fully before impacting our area, *could* see changes in forecasts until right up til the system lifts across the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Just something to keep in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: The longest amount of time without power in WNY came from a snowstorm, rather than an ice storm. I had no power for 2 weeks in Oct 2006 in Cheektowaga, some longer than that. That was probably due to the heavy wet nature of the snow hanging on power lines and still-leafed tree branches right? That's equally brutal too, I'm just more concerned considering the temperatures behind this particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Stash said: That was probably due to the heavy wet nature of the snow hanging on power lines and still-leafed tree branches right? That's equally brutal too, I'm just more concerned considering the temperatures behind this particular storm. Yep. 2 feet of 1:6-8 ratio lake effect snow with all the leaves still on the trees. Whenever someone brings up all LES being fluff I reference that storm lol. It was sloppier than any synoptic event I've had here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Delaware guy looking to chase this one into NY state. Was thinking Albany, Euro is telling me thats not even close to far enough North. GFS is telling me its way too far north. Model mayhem continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Forecasted high for today was upper 20s in the Sizzle. Sizzling in the low to mid 30s this afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: Delaware guy looking to chase this one into NY state. Was thinking Albany, Euro is telling me thats not even close to far enough North. GFS is telling me its way too far north. Model mayhem continues. Buffalo. You won't go wrong this winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Delaware guy looking to chase this one into NY state. Was thinking Albany, Euro is telling me thats not even close to far enough North. GFS is telling me its way too far north. Model mayhem continues. NW Ohio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Forecasted high for today was upper 20s in the Sizzle. Sizzling in the low to mid 30s this afternoon. 28.4 at my Cicero Weather station as of 2:15PM reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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