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Model Mayhem Snowstorm! 2/2-2/4


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Just now, rochesterdave said:

Kinda wish it would stay a bit suppressed. The taint makes me nervous and obsessive. Plus, I’m watching VT. Lol

I really (my opinion) don't want a cold press situation and a progressive look now.  The GFS (trend) is what you'd get and that scares the snot out of me.  

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I probably couldn't cook up a worse Euro run if I made it myself.  A dangerous ice storm would be a fitting cap on what's been a historically bad start to winter.  Hopefully that's not the end solution.  I'd prefer sending this through Toronto and deal with the rain over this.  I don't see the Euro messing this one up that badly however.

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6 minutes ago, Stash said:

I probably couldn't cook up a worse Euro run if I made it myself.  A dangerous ice storm would be a fitting cap on what's been a historically bad start to winter.  Hopefully that's not the end solution.  I'd prefer sending this through Toronto and deal with the rain over this.  I don't see the Euro messing this one up that badly however.

Completely agree but I'd rather that GFS solution over all rain...

I guess down here it doesnt matter as much as long as upstate gets hammered for everyone else on the forum and my snowmobiling trips :lol: That's a whole lotta freezing rain.

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25 minutes ago, Stash said:

I probably couldn't cook up a worse Euro run if I made it myself.  A dangerous ice storm would be a fitting cap on what's been a historically bad start to winter.  Hopefully that's not the end solution.  I'd prefer sending this through Toronto and deal with the rain over this.  I don't see the Euro messing this one up that badly however.

I’m right there with you.

I was out all morning, started catching up on this thread from page 5.

With every page it got better looking for us……until the Euro rolled in.

We hope the GFS keeps up its recent over performance.

 

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I hate being so close to the taint line, but the models (other than random Rgem and some ensembles) haven't showed it getting much further north. The Canadian and now Euro have been pretty consistent with that part. Plus, as 96 has been saying, the more juiced up this is/combined with cold, the better for those on the wintry side.

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5 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I’m right there with you.

I was out all morning, started catching up on this thread from page 5.

With every page it got better looking for us……until the Euro rolled in.

We hope the GFS keeps up its recent over performance.

 

Yeah, I'm not looking to take anyone's snow.  As long as there isn't an ice storm here (snow or rain) whatever it does in Buffalo or Rochester is just fine.  Still have nightmares over that ice storm in December 2008, and being without power for a week.  All in all the Euro solution is only good for the NW portion of Upstate (and far northern NY), for the Southern Tier, Glens Falls/Capital Region, and Hudson Valley it's pretty awful.  Still time for the HP to build in a little earlier however.

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Whats the euro output for freezing rain out your way?

1 minute ago, Stash said:

Yeah, I'm not looking to take anyone's snow.  As long as there isn't an ice storm here (snow or rain) whatever it does in Buffalo or Rochester is just fine.  Still have nightmares over that ice storm in December 2008, and being without power for a week.  All in all the Euro solution is only good for the NW portion of Upstate (and far northern NY), for the Southern Tier, Glens Falls/Capital Region, and Hudson Valley it's pretty awful.  Still time for the HP to build in a little earlier however.

 

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2 minutes ago, Stash said:

Yeah, I'm not looking to take anyone's snow.  As long as there isn't an ice storm here (snow or rain) whatever it does in Buffalo or Rochester is just fine.  Still have nightmares over that ice storm in December 2008, and being without power for a week.  All in all the Euro solution is only good for the NW portion of Upstate (and far northern NY), for the Southern Tier, Glens Falls/Capital Region, and Hudson Valley it's pretty awful.  Still time for the HP to build in a little earlier however.

The longest amount of time without power in WNY came from a snowstorm, rather than an ice storm. I had no power for 2 weeks in Oct 2006 in Cheektowaga, some longer than that. 

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I think this was from this morning..

Note of caution
though, the shortwave energy that eventually spins up this system is
just dropping south of Gulf of Alaska and really does not make to
the southwest CONUS until Wednesday morning. So, could be changes to
forecasts up to that point and with not much time for the system to
develop fully before impacting our area, *could* see changes in
forecasts until right up til the system lifts across the lower Great
Lakes and Northeast. Just something to keep in mind.
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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

The longest amount of time without power in WNY came from a snowstorm, rather than an ice storm. I had no power for 2 weeks in Oct 2006 in Cheektowaga, some longer than that. 

That was probably due to the heavy wet nature of the snow hanging on power lines and still-leafed tree branches right?  That's equally brutal too, I'm just more concerned considering the temperatures behind this particular storm.

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1 minute ago, Stash said:

That was probably due to the heavy wet nature of the snow hanging on power lines and still-leafed tree branches right?  That's equally brutal too, I'm just more concerned considering the temperatures behind this particular storm.

Yep. 2 feet of 1:6-8 ratio lake effect snow with all the leaves still on the trees. Whenever someone brings up all LES being fluff I reference that storm lol. It was sloppier than any synoptic event I've had here. 

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