BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Figured it was close enough to start its own thread. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ...Increasing potential for a long duration, impactful accumulating snowfall during the mid week period... A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of western and north central New York Wednesday night through the first half of Friday. Southwest flow of milder air continues into the region ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday morning. Temperatures may reach the lower to mid 40s, especially for the lake plains and Genesee Valley into the Finger Lakes. Could see a few showers of rain or rain/snow mix sneak into the region from the northwest Wednesday morning, but its not until the afternoon on Wednesday until the deeper northward push of moisture transport reaches the area within the background of broadening system relative isentropic ascent along and immediately ahead of the advancing cold front. This introduces the initial stage of an expected longer duration precipitation event. Wednesday night through Thursday night... Gradual height falls tied the lead northern stream wave shearing into central Ontario will draw the system cold front across the area Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Sustained ascent driven by very moist system relative isentropic lift working over the advancing boundary ensures an expanding coverage of precipitation commences during this time. Rain may still be the predominant precipitation time Wednesday evening before steady cooling of the column allows for a change over to snow from north to south probably from late evening or around midnight through the overnight. Transition timing will likely impact accumulating snow potential Wednesday night and at this point do not see this as the period of the heaviest snow accumulations although several inches are certainly possible before morning if the change over occurs early enough in the night. At this point in the forecast process believe that the best potential for widespread accumulating snowfall will be Thursday into Thursday night as several rounds of stronger ascent continue to engage the elevated frontal zone. Do see diminishing ascent commencing late Thursday night. However, north-northeast flow of incoming arctic airmass will start to bring in some mesoscale processes with lake response south of Lake Ontario likely coming into play by the time we reach Friday morning. Overall snow to liquid ratios starting out very wet in the 6:1 range transitioning to a more standard 10-12:1 ratio by Thursday night. A general blend of guidance including the GFS/CMC/EC suggesting a high likelihood for snowfall total to exceed 9 inches through this time period with the potential for more as we go into Friday. 18Z Euro GFS GEM UK 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 BUF: The 30/12Z run of the ECMWF has again trended further NW and is now more in line with the GFS and Canadian-NH. Would still like too see some run to run consistency but a somewhat more clearer picture is starting to evolve. Again...a lot will ride on the strength of the sfc high to our northwest and the eventual push of the 850 hPa thermal boundary (cold front) into and across the region. The next key will be where it stalls or sets up which will then provide a path for several waves of low pressure to track along. This boundary will also determine p-type and snowfall amounts...which could be significant depending on which side of the boundary you reside. Right now...its looking like an all snow event for all of our CWA. The question is just how much...too early to say at this point. Again...just want to hammer one "big" point home with this update. As was previously stated...guidance has been all over the board. Its only been the 30/12Z guidance that has been a little bit more consistent. Still lots of time for things to change but will start with adding this potential storm in the HWO. stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 HWO The potential exists for a long duration winter storm to impact the region Wednesday night into Friday. This system has the potential to bring significant accumulating snow. Details in forecast track and exact amounts are still emerging at this time. A more northern track could also bring the possibility of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Top Analog 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I like that the "Top Analog" has a flatter look to it, and hope that this heads in that direciton as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looking at the eps, reason they are getting bit more amped is they are digging the southern s/w more in the south. Culprit could be pna ridge previously was getting sawed off up near AK due to lower hgts. This lead to a broad ridge which causes more positive tilted trough allowing the cold to run east and less phasing. Last couple runs are losing that which is leading to a more amplified pna ridge allowing for the s/w to dig more. This really flexes the se ridge which in turn shoves the cold air advancement from the clipper more northeast instead of east. Also, the tpv has trended a bit further north as well which has allowed the se ridge to gain more traction but I think that is merely related to the s/w in the south digging more. Going into these 0z runs, watch the pna, how much energy phases out west, and how strong the southern stream s/w is in the south. It's a catch 22 here, you want a potent storm to bring good qpf, but that also may enhance the se ridge and push the thermal bndry over the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 00Z NAM looks amped thru 6 hrs. Rain to Toronto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: 00Z NAM looks amped thru 6 hrs. Rain to Toronto? Nam is always amped it had the last storm 100 miles nw then what actually happened 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Yep. More amped and slowing the front/cold press down. Sweating bullets on the line...per usual anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Heavy rain in Syracuse Thursday morning. Shoot me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Heavy rain in Syracuse Thursday morning. Shoot me now. Flood watches issued tomorrow in afternoon AFD? Or wait till Tuesday a.m. package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Flood watches issued tomorrow in afternoon AFD? Or wait till Tuesday a.m. package? Ha. I guess we'll see what the rest of the 0Z runs show. Nam could be doing it's normal Nam thing....BUT every time it shows us warm and rain it seems to be right. I know I'm supposed to be "positive" but at this point we've gotta look at every possible way we can get screwed, as "this is the way" here it seems anymore. Oh, and we KNOW BGM will be all over the Nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Ya the models are all over the place. Imagine after all this time it ends up back to original rain storm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: Ya the models are all over the place. Imagine after all this time it ends up back to original rain storm haha ...and with all the COLD we've had.... if it ends up rain...and then we cold again.... maddening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: Ya the models are all over the place. Imagine after all this time it ends up back to original rain storm haha Wouldn't surprise me if that's where this ends up. 84 hr NAM though...not likely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: ...and with all the COLD we've had.... if it ends up rain...and then we cold again.... maddening. I follow your weather because I love lake effect snow but what's going on with areas near the lakes. Many places are way below normal. Check this out . Strange that Atlantic city is number 10 and almost up to Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Wouldn't surprise me if that's where this ends up. 84 hr NAM though...not likely correct. It nailed the nor easter...oh wait...no. It didnt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 I may get my ice storm after all. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I follow your weather because I love lake effect snow but what's going on with areas near the lakes. Many places are way below normal. Check this out . Strange The cold air has been so cold and dry, that lake effect has been minimal. The past two winters, we were too warm..now we're too cold. lol Then, the synoptic track...ugh. Great for Buffalo, Toronto, and Watertown. Southeast of there...meh. Plus, December was super snowless, so we started off extremely slowly. I am just dumbfounded by how awful the winters of recent have been in Syracuse relative to normal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nam is always amped it had the last storm 100 miles nw then what actually happened just let em go... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The cold air has been so cold and dry, that lake effect has been minimal. The past two winters, we were too warm..now we're too cold. lol Then, the synoptic track...ugh. Great for Buffalo, Toronto, and Watertown. Southeast of there...meh. Plus, December was super snowless, so we started off extremely slowly. I am just dumbfounded by how awful the winters of recent have been in Syracuse relative to normal. What is your average ? 120? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The cold air has been so cold and dry, that lake effect has been minimal. The past two winters, we were too warm..now we're too cold. lol Then, the synoptic track...ugh. Great for Buffalo, Toronto, and Watertown. Southeast of there...meh. Plus, December was super snowless, so we started off extremely slowly. I am just dumbfounded by how awful the winters of recent have been in Syracuse relative to normal. I'm dumbfounded too. The only comparable years are 1966-1969. You should feel good that this won't last. You got all the bad years out of the way now. Statistics don't lie. https://www.tsforecast.com/seasonalsnowfall.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: What is your average ? 120? In Northern Onondaga county, it's about 130 to 135 inches. We're sitting at about 47 inches on the season. (As you can see on the table, Syracuse city is 10 inches lower.) Should be around 80 to 85 inches by this time in this part of the county. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I'm dumbfounded too. The only comparable years are 1966-1969. You should feel good that this won't last. You got all the bad years out of the way now. Statistics don't lie. https://www.tsforecast.com/seasonalsnowfall.html I should, but I don't. I didn't think it would go on a 3rd year. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The Rgem looks a bit faster/further east with the front than it did at 18Z. We'll see if that continues by the end of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: The Rgem looks a bit faster/further east with the front than it did at 18Z. We'll see if that continues by the end of this run. Its quite a bit further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Its quite a bit further SE I was comparing it to its 18Z run...not the Nam. But it is definitely much more SE than the Nam...and weaker. Sizzlecuse is the last place to change over north of the front, but whatever. Thinking the Nam looks way too amped here, and that it's more of a drawn out/possibly overrunning-type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 0Z Rgem looks very close to its buddy the Ggem (from 12Z) so I don't think there will be much change with the next Canadian run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 N/W on the icon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I will be enjoying this snowstorm with you guys. Nice to be back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now