Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Eduardo said: When’s the last time Manhattan had a legit ice storm? 1973 was an incredible ice storm for NYC, 1994 Staten Island had one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS continues to compress the height field over SE Canada… leads to a crippling solution verbatim this solution can’t be thrown out, as very cold air filtering into a wave of LP is similar to what happens in the Plains. this is an anomalous setup 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 What a weenie run on the GFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: What a weenie run on the GFS! Interiors turn to cash in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: 1973 was an incredible ice storm for NYC, 1994 Staten Island had one Yeah I was living out on LI for the ‘94 one, but I don’t recall seeing any footage of ice accretion in NYC. I’d imagine it must be pretty tough to get that in a major urban center like Manhattan. Was it unusually cold at the surface in ‘73? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Interiors turn to cash in It's a nice thought. But I have a bad feeling if this trends south on other guidance it will end up BOS cashing in again... especially with an extended period of easterly flow Ocean enhancement, while we get rain to freezing rain. Regardless of who cashes in snow-wise, it would be great if this trends towards a primarily wintry event for our region. That would be a big win when the overall synoptics could easily favor a warm solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Very odd that GFS didn't back down at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Very odd that GFS didn't back down at all. Gefs is even colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Yeah I was living out on LI for the ‘94 one, but I don’t recall seeing any footage of ice accretion in NYC. I’d imagine it must be pretty tough to get that in a major urban center like Manhattan. Was it unusually cold at the surface in ‘73? Yes my parents return to Oceanside LI where I grew up with 2 inches of ice in the car and Oceanside had just rain. In 1994 NYC had snow and sleet. But when I did field work and went to Staten Island everythwas glazed in about .5” of ice, it was beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The CMC is colder and further southeast with the SLP than 12z. Can't see how much frozen gets to our area yet. Gonna have to check 18z too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: The CMC is colder and further southeast with the SLP than 12z. Can't see how much frozen gets to our area yet. Gonna have to check 18z too. Not much but it's definitely south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ukie is colder and further south than 12z run for Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS and Ukie still cold and CMC trended slightly colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The UK looks a touch colder than 12z... a little more ice and snow into or near the metro. Not nearly as cold as yesterday's 12z, however. And the front does not penetrate southeast as fast as on the GFS. Still a solid run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 A slight downside to colder solutions is that they are also shifting a little drier. I think we'd take that tradeoff. And there should still be enough moisture for a significant period of wintry precipitation should it slide far enough south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 semi-legit wintry threats now showing up on multiple models. Both have potential problems, so I'll set expectations at 0 and be happy for anything we get. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ECMWF is notably colder 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: The Ukie is absolutely horrible. It did the worst out of every model with the last storm by far even right up to game time, run after run it wasn’t even close 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 hours ago, Mitchel Volk said: Yes my parents return to Oceanside LI where I grew up with 2 inches of ice in the car and Oceanside had just rain. In 1994 NYC had snow and sleet. But when I did field work and went to Staten Island everythwas glazed in about .5” of ice, it was beautiful I remember an ice storm in the early 70s in Oceanside where I could sit down outside our front door and slide all the way down the driveway into the street. The poor dog couldn't stay still to poop without sliding and falling over. Where did you live in town? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The GFS is a huge outlier, not even going to bother talking about the UKMET, which is a really horrible model and its “snow” maps are severely overdone and totally inaccurate, it’s not snow, it’s showing sleet as snow. That aside, the ICON, CMC, Euro, EPS, RGEM, NAM all do not have this as a snow event. All their outputs show zero snow in the metro area and have it completely as a sleet and freezing rain event mainly north and west of NYC 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I remember a couple doozy ice storms just outside of NYC in essex county. One was late 90's- 2000 ish ... there have been others not mentioned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 January 7-8th 1994 ice storm in Brooklyn... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The GFS is likely too much of an outlier so it should trend warmer today. If it doesn't then it would be another major fail from the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: The GFS is likely too much of an outlier so it should trend warmer today. If it doesn't then it would be another major fail from the other models. Nam is flatter through 60 compared to the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is flatter through 60 compared to the 6z run It puts areas N/W on notice. I guess we'll see where the trends are today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This is the wrong trend direction Nam. Go the other way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 13 minutes ago, EasternLI said: This is the wrong trend direction Nam. Go the other way. The NAM has wild swings after HR 48 (as we saw big time last weekend). Wouldn't look at it until tomorrow 12Z plus its always overamped after hour 60. Stick to EURO/CMC/GFS blend and look at trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The NAM has wild swings after HR 48 (as we saw big time last weekend). Wouldn't look at it until tomorrow 12Z plus its always overamped after hour 60. Stick to EURO/CMC/GFS blend and look at trends today Well yeah, not taking it to the bank. Just posting it. I'm more interested to see if the gfs holds onto it's idea with this. And which way the euro leans at 12z more than any other guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Reminder...if one is going to use precip maps in a mixed event like this could be, IMO, one has to use three maps to get a sense of what's actually going to happen, as per below for the 6Z GFS (or use the accumulated precip types maps at the bottom of this post, at least for the GFS/NAM). For pure snowfall, use the Pivotal snowfall map For pure freezing rain accretion, use the Pivotal freezing rain map (understanding that that is converting all rain falling at <32F as accreting freezing rain, which is a wost case) For sleet, take the Tidbits "snowfall" map (which includes sleet as 10:1 snow), and kind of manually subtract out the pure snowfall from Pivotal and then divide that resulting "snowfall" (sleet) by 3 to get the sleet accumulation (given the roughly 3:1 frozen/liquid ratio for sleet vs. 10:1 for snow). Actual sleet maps would be nice, since clearly that TT "snowfall" map is mostly sleet at a much lower ratio. Alternatively, for the GFS/NAM, at least, I know there are these precip type accumulation maps from cool.wx, below, which are nice, but not zoomed enough for me. I know these offer the ability to get very detailed precip type accumulations for specific stations, like Newark and Central Park, but I can't seem to figure out how to get these from the site any more. Anyone else use these? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getptype.cgi?region=ne&model=gfs&run=06&fhr=29&field=acctype 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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